广州市南沙区农业区域 海平面上升应对策略

It envinces that sea level rise aggravates low-lying terrain inundation, storm surges, beach erosion, and other ecological damages. The developed agricultural system in the Pearl River Delta is at a high risk to floods; and, in light of the tactical significance of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and its high vulnerability to sea level rise and storm surges, it urgently requires to study their impacts on the agricultural areas in this region. Taking Nansha District, Guangzhou City, Guangdong Province, China as the study area, this study builds a vulnerability evaluation model of agricultural areas with the Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence framework using an indicator system upon exposure, sensibility, and adaptation, and quantitatively predicts the inundation risk level, financial loss, and vulnerability patterns of varied scenarios of sea level rise superimposed with storm surges with the ArcGIS. The main findings include 1) the stimulated proportion of inundated areas in minimum-risk and maximum-risk scenarios is 73.38% and 87.96% respectively, and the estimated financial loss in both scenarios is RMB 3,897.3855 million and 7,140.4979 million, respectively; 2) the central Nansha will suffer from a higher inundation risk, and the northern and southern agriculatural parts within the study area have a higher vulnerability to flood disasters. Resilience strategies—through defense, adaptation, or relocation—for each vulnerable zone are then proposed accordingly.     

基于海平面影响湿地模型的海平面上升影响海岸湿地景观研究

科学客观评估海平面上升对海岸生态环境带来的风险是实现合理利用和开发海岸资源的关键。运用海平面影响湿地模型(SLAMM)定量模拟预测近期(2017—2030年)、中期(2017—2050年)和远期(2017—2100年)海平面上升3个不同阶段对广州海岸湿地景观空间分布和面积变化的影响,并对其生态系统服务价值变化进行定量评估。结果显示:1)近期海平面上升导致海岸湿地空间分布呈显著破碎化趋势,中期和远期的影响相对趋于稳定;2)盐沼、芦苇沼泽和红树林面积减少量变化显著,河口水域面积持续扩大,滩涂面积出现波动性变化;3)生态系统服务价值总量呈现"减少(近期)—增加(中期)—减少(远期)"的波动性变化特征,但最终总量减少,减少约435 492.59万元,其中渔业生产和教育科研价值减少量变化显著,污染净化价值增加量变化显著,干扰调节价值波动性变化显著。