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全球变暖导致极端气候事件频发,给自然和人类社会带来极大的危害。基于RclimDex模型和去趋势波动分析法(DFA),分析了辽宁省1960年~2019年10项极端气候指数的时空分布特征和未来一段时间内的变化趋势。极端降水指数研究表明,辽宁省近60年极端降水指数年际间波动幅度较大;空间分析显示辽宁省东部山脉地区极端降水强度高于西部地区;5日最大降水量的DFA值达0.713,表明区域集中降水事件将持续增多。极端温度指数研究表明,辽宁省近60年来气候明显变暖;持续无雨加上高温使辽西地区更易遭遇干旱灾害;DFA分析中4项极端温度指数均具有较好的长程相关性,表明辽宁省未来20年气候将保持持续变暖趋势。研究成果对于今后辽宁省科学应对极端气候具有重要意义。 相似文献
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In response to the problem of finding a practical, robust, and efficient optimization algorithms in hydrological simulation forecasting and determining the global optimal solution of parameters based on them, the Wucha section, a typical control section in the Qijiang River Basin, was selected as the research object. Four optimization algorithms, GA、 SCE-UA、CMA-ES、PSO, were selected to calibrate the convergence parameters of the distributed Xin’anjiang model. The parameter calibration performance of the algorithm was evaluated from four aspects: effectiveness, stability, time consumption, and efficiency. The results show that CMA-ES algorithm has the best optimization effect and the least time consumption under the same number of iterations. SCE-UA algorithm has the highest stability and efficiency, but its time consumption significantly increases with the increase of iteration times. PSO algorithm has relatively better effectiveness and efficiency, but the stability is the worst. GA algorithm takes relatively less time and has the worst optimization effect and efficiency. The comprehensive property is ranked from best to worst as CMA-ES, SCE-UA, PSO, and GA algorithms. © 2023, Editorial Board of Water Resources Protection. All rights reserved. 相似文献
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