Latent-space variational bayes

Variational Bayesian Expectation-Maximization (VBEM), an approximate inference method for probabilistic models based on factorizing over latent variables and model parameters, has been a standard technique for practical Bayesian inference. In this paper, we introduce a more general approximate inference framework for conjugate-exponential family models, which we call Latent-Space Variational Bayes (LSVB). In this approach, we integrate out model parameters in an exact way, leaving only the latent variables. It can be shown that the LSVB approach gives better estimates of the model evidence as well as the distribution over latent variables than the VBEM approach, but in practice, the distribution over latent variables has to be approximated. As a practical implementation, we present a First-order LSVB (FoLSVB) algorithm to approximate this distribution over latent variables. From this approximate distribution, one can estimate the model evidence and the posterior over model parameters. The FoLSVB algorithm is directly comparable to the VBEM algorithm and has the same computational complexity. We discuss how LSVB generalizes the recently proposed collapsed variational methods [20] to general conjugate-exponential families. Examples based on mixtures of Gaussians and mixtures of Bernoullis with synthetic and real-world data sets are used to illustrate some advantages of our method over VBEM.     

Split and Merge EM Algorithm for Improving Gaussian Mixture Density Estimates

The EM algorithm for Gaussian mixture models often gets caught in local maxima of the likelihood which involve having too many Gaussians in one part of the space and too few in another, widely separated part of the space. We present a new EM algorithm which performs split and merge operations on the Gaussians to escape from these configurations. This algorithm uses two novel criteria for efficiently selecting the split and merge candidates. Experimental results on synthetic and real data show the effectiveness of using the split and merge operations to improve the likelihood of both the training data and of held-out test data.     

计算机网络系统的雷电电涌防护

针对计算机网络系统经常遭受雷电电涌危害的现象，本文介绍了相关的防护措施，并着重分析了电涌保护器的防护技术。     

An Introduction to Variational Methods for Graphical Models

This paper presents a tutorial introduction to the use of variational methods for inference and learning in graphical models (Bayesian networks and Markov random fields). We present a number of examples of graphical models, including the QMR-DT database, the sigmoid belief network, the Boltzmann machine, and several variants of hidden Markov models, in which it is infeasible to run exact inference algorithms. We then introduce variational methods, which exploit laws of large numbers to transform the original graphical model into a simplified graphical model in which inference is efficient. Inference in the simpified model provides bounds on probabilities of interest in the original model. We describe a general framework for generating variational transformations based on convex duality. Finally we return to the examples and demonstrate how variational algorithms can be formulated in each case.     

Factorial Hidden Markov Models

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) have proven to be one of the most widely used tools for learning probabilistic models of time series data. In an HMM, information about the past is conveyed through a single discrete variable—the hidden state. We discuss a generalization of HMMs in which this state is factored into multiple state variables and is therefore represented in a distributed manner. We describe an exact algorithm for inferring the posterior probabilities of the hidden state variables given the observations, and relate it to the forward–backward algorithm for HMMs and to algorithms for more general graphical models. Due to the combinatorial nature of the hidden state representation, this exact algorithm is intractable. As in other intractable systems, approximate inference can be carried out using Gibbs sampling or variational methods. Within the variational framework, we present a structured approximation in which the the state variables are decoupled, yielding a tractable algorithm for learning the parameters of the model. Empirical comparisons suggest that these approximations are efficient and provide accurate alternatives to the exact methods. Finally, we use the structured approximation to model Bach's chorales and show that factorial HMMs can capture statistical structure in this data set which an unconstrained HMM cannot.     

Flexible latent variable models for multi-task learning

Given multiple prediction problems such as regression or classification, we are interested in a joint inference framework that can effectively share information between tasks to improve the prediction accuracy, especially when the number of training examples per problem is small. In this paper we propose a probabilistic framework which can support a set of latent variable models for different multi-task learning scenarios. We show that the framework is a generalization of standard learning methods for single prediction problems and it can effectively model the shared structure among different prediction tasks. Furthermore, we present efficient algorithms for the empirical Bayes method as well as point estimation. Our experiments on both simulated datasets and real world classification datasets show the effectiveness of the proposed models in two evaluation settings: a standard multi-task learning setting and a transfer learning setting.     

历史文化古镇的形象保护与环境景观设计问题初探

如何在现有小城镇特别是古镇的文化底蕴、景观形象基础上进行风貌的保护与形象的提升是值得关注的问题。文章以浙江省衢州市球川古镇形象景观保护规划项目为例,从古镇整体风貌保护、建筑文化传承、民俗乡土文韵挖掘等方面探讨了传统古镇的形象提升与环境景观的构成特点。     

Bayesian Gaussian process classification with the EM-EP algorithm

Gaussian process classifiers (GPCs) are Bayesian probabilistic kernel classifiers. In GPCs, the probability of belonging to a certain class at an input location is monotonically related to the value of some latent function at that location. Starting from a Gaussian process prior over this latent function, data are used to infer both the posterior over the latent function and the values of hyperparameters to determine various aspects of the function. Recently, the expectation propagation (EP) approach has been proposed to infer the posterior over the latent function. Based on this work, we present an approximate EM algorithm, the EM-EP algorithm, to learn both the latent function and the hyperparameters. This algorithm is found to converge in practice and provides an efficient Bayesian framework for learning hyperparameters of the kernel. A multiclass extension of the EM-EP algorithm for GPCs is also derived. In the experimental results, the EM-EP algorithms are as good or better than other methods for GPCs or support vector machines (SVMs) with cross-validation