Predicting Prostephanus truncatus (Horn) (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae) populations and associated grain damage in smallholder farmers’ maize stores: A machine learning approach

Prostephanus truncatus is a notorious pest of stored-maize grain and its spread throughout sub-Saharan Africa has led to increased levels of grain storage losses. The current study developed models to predict the level of P. truncatus infestation and associated damage of maize grain in smallholder farmer stores. Data were gathered from grain storage trials conducted in Hwedza and Mbire districts of Zimbabwe and correlated with weather data for each site. Insect counts of P. truncatus and other common stored grain insect pests had a strong correlation with time of year with highest recorded numbers from January to May. Correlation analysis showed insect-generated grain dust from boring and feeding activity to be the best indicator of P. truncatus presence in stores (r = 0.70), while a moderate correlation (r = 0.48) was found between P. truncatus numbers and storage insect parasitic wasps, and grain damage levels significantly correlated with the presence of Tribolium castaneum (r = 0.60). Models were developed for predicting P. truncatus infestation and grain damage using parameter selection algorithms and decision-tree machine learning algorithms with 10-fold cross-validation. The P. truncatus population size prediction model performance was weak (r = 0.43) due to the complicated sampling and detection of the pest and eight-week long period between sampling events. The grain damage prediction model had a stronger correlation coefficient (r = 0.93) and is a good estimator for in situ stored grain insect damage. The models were developed for use under southern African climatic conditions and can be improved with more input data to create more precise models for building decision-support tools for smallholder maize-based production systems.     

Looking ahead: Joint small group detection and tracking in crowd scenes

Small group detection and tracking in crowd scenes are basis for high level crowd analysis tasks. However, it suffers from the ambiguities in generating proper groups and in handling dynamic changes of group configurations. In this paper, we propose a novel delay decision-making based method for addressing the above problems, motivated by the idea that these ambiguities can be solved using rich temporal context. Specifically, given individual detections, small group hypotheses are generated. Then candidate group hypotheses across consecutive frames and their potential associations are built in a tree. By seeking for the best non-conflicting subset from the hypothesis tree, small groups are determined and simultaneously their trajectories are got. So this framework is called joint detection and tracking. This joint framework reduces the ambiguities in small group decision and tracking by looking ahead for several frames. However, it results in the unmanageable solution space because the number of track hypotheses grows exponentially over time. To solve this problem, effective pruning strategies are developed, which can keep the solution space manageable and also improve the credibility of small groups. Experiments on public datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method. The method achieves the state-of-the-art performance even in noisy crowd scenes.     

大规模多状态计算系统的容错性能分析

针对异构计算节点组成的大规模多状态计算系统的容错性能分析问题，提出了一种计算系统容错性能的评估方法。该方法采用自定义的两级容错性能形式化描述框架进行系统描述，通过构造多值决策图（Multi-value Decision Diagram，MDD）模型对系统进行容错性能建模，并基于构造的模型高效地计算出部件故障的条件下计算系统在特定性能水平上运行的概率，减少了计算的冗余性。实验结果表明，该方法在模型的大小和构建时间上均优于传统方法。该方法的提出将对系统操作员或程序设计者具有重要意义，使其确保系统适合预期应用。     

基于残差决策的自动飞行控制系统远程实时故障诊断

针对自动飞行控制系统结构复杂、关联部件众多,发生故障时诊断时间长,从而影响飞机运行效率的问题,提出一种基于飞机通信寻址报告系统(ACARS)的远程实时故障诊断方案。首先,分析自动飞行控制系统的故障特点,设计搭建检测滤波器;然后,利用ACARS数据链实时发送的自动飞行控制系统的关键信息进行相关部件的残差计算,并根据残差决策算法进行故障诊断及定位;最后,针对不同故障部件残差间的差异大、决策门限无法统一的缺点,提出基于二次差值的残差决策改进算法,减缓了检测对象的整体变化趋势,降低了随机噪声和干扰的影响,避免了将瞬态故障诊断为系统故障的情况。实验仿真结果表明,基于二次差值的改进残差决策算法避免了多决策门限的复杂性,在采样时间为0.1 s的情况下,故障检测所需时间大约为2 s,故障检测时间大幅降低,有效故障检测率大于90%。     

A hybrid knowledge and ensemble classification approach for prediction of venous thromboembolism

Clinical narratives such as progress summaries, lab reports, surgical reports, and other narrative texts contain key biomarkers about a patient's health. Evidence-based preventive medicine needs accurate semantic and sentiment analysis to extract and classify medical features as the input to appropriate machine learning classifiers. However, the traditional approach of using single classifiers is limited by the need for dimensionality reduction techniques, statistical feature correlation, a faster learning rate, and the lack of consideration of the semantic relations among features. Hence, extracting semantic and sentiment-based features from clinical text and combining multiple classifiers to create an ensemble intelligent system overcomes many limitations and provides a more robust prediction outcome. The selection of an appropriate approach and its interparameter dependency becomes key for the success of the ensemble method. This paper proposes a hybrid knowledge and ensemble learning framework for prediction of venous thromboembolism (VTE) diagnosis consisting of the following components: a VTE ontology, semantic extraction and sentiment assessment of risk factor framework, and an ensemble classifier. Therefore, a component-based analysis approach was adopted for evaluation using a data set of 250 clinical narratives where knowledge and ensemble achieved the following results with and without semantic extraction and sentiment assessment of risk factor, respectively: a precision of 81.8% and 62.9%, a recall of 81.8% and 57.6%, an F measure of 81.8% and 53.8%, and a receiving operating characteristic of 80.1% and 58.5% in identifying cases of VTE.     

Design of delayed reconfigurable manufacturing system based on part family grouping and machine selection

To improve the convertibility of reconfigurable manufacturing system (RMS), the concept of delayed reconfigurable manufacturing system (D-RMS) was proposed. RMS and D-RMS are both constructed around part family. However, D-RMS may suffer from ultra-long system problem with unacceptable idle machines using generic RMS part families. Besides, considering the complex basic system structure of D-RMS, machine selection of D-RMS should be addressed, including dedicated machine, flexible machine, and reconfigurable machine. Therefore, a system design method for D-RMS based on part family grouping and machine selection is proposed. Firstly, a part family grouping method is proposed for D-RMS that groups the parts with more former common operations into the same part family. The concept of longest relative position common operation subsequence (LPCS) is proposed. The similarity coefficient among the parts is calculated based on LPCS. The reciprocal value of the operation position of LPCS is adopted as the characteristic value. The average linkage clustering (ALC) algorithm is used to cluster the parts. Secondly, a machine selection method is proposed to complete the system design of D-RMS, including machine selection rules and the dividing point decision model. Finally, a case study is given to implement and verify the proposed system design method for D-RMS. The results show that the proposed system design method is effective, which can group parts with more former common operations into the same part family and select appropriate machine types.     

基于梯度提升决策树的车轮轮缘厚度磨耗预测

轮对在列车走行过程中起着导向、承受以及传递载荷的作用，其踏面及轮缘磨耗对地铁列车运行安全性和钢轨的寿命都将产生重要影响。根据地铁列车车轮磨耗机理，分析车轮尺寸数据特点，针对轮缘厚度这一型面参数，基于梯度提升决策树算法构建轮缘厚度磨耗预测模型。在该模型的基础上，任意选取某轮对数据进行验证分析，结果表明：基于梯度提升决策树的轮对磨耗预测模型具有较好的预测精度，可预测出1~6个月的轮缘厚度变化趋势范围，预测时间范围较长，可为地铁维保部门对轮对的维修方式由状态修转为预防修提供指导性建议。     

Some picture fuzzy Bonferroni mean operators with their application to multicriteria decision making

In this paper, we extend the Bonferroni mean (BM) operator with the picture fuzzy numbers (PFNs) to propose novel picture fuzzy aggregation operators and demonstrate their application to multicriteria decision making (MCDM). On the basis of the algebraic operational rules of PFNs and BM, we introduce some aggregation operators: the picture fuzzy Bonferroni mean, the picture fuzzy normalized weighted Bonferroni mean, and the picture fuzzy ordered weighted Bonferroni mean. Then, a new picture fuzzy MCDM method is proposed with the help of the proposed operators. Lastly, a practical application of proposed model is given to verify the developed model and related results of the proposed model is compared with the results of the existing models to indicate its applicability.     

Mathematical representation of radiality constraint in distribution system reconfiguration problem

Distribution systems are most commonly operated in a radial configuration for a number of reasons. In order to impose radiality constraint in the optimal network reconfiguration problem, an efficient algorithm is introduced in this paper based on graph theory. The paper shows that the normally followed methods of imposing radiality constraint within a mixed-integer programming formulation of the reconfiguration problem may not be sufficient. The minimum-loss network reconfiguration problem is formulated using different ways to impose radiality constraint. It is shown, through simulations, that the formulated problem using the proposed method for representing radiality constraint can be solved more efficiently, as opposed to the previously proposed formulations. This results in up to 30% reduction in CPU time for the test systems used in this study.