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排序方式: 共有9071条查询结果,搜索用时 31 毫秒
1.
Christian Soize Roger Ghanem 《International journal for numerical methods in engineering》2022,123(1):268-290
The probabilistic learning on manifolds (PLoM) introduced in 2016 has solved difficult supervised problems for the “small data” limit where the number N of points in the training set is small. Many extensions have since been proposed, making it possible to deal with increasingly complex cases. However, the performance limit has been observed and explained for applications for which N is very small and for which the dimension of the diffusion-map basis is close to N. For these cases, we propose a novel extension based on the introduction of a partition in independent random vectors. We take advantage of this development to present improvements of the PLoM such as a simplified algorithm for constructing the diffusion-map basis and a new mathematical result for quantifying the concentration of the probability measure in terms of a probability upper bound. The analysis of the efficiency of this extension is presented through two applications. 相似文献
2.
高比例新能源及多源耦合是电力系统发展的重要特征,这也为系统稳定经济运行提出了新挑战。该文以园区型多能系统为对象,研究了分布式多元随机动态场景分析,从多时空角度有效量化不确定因素给系统造成的影响,可为系统灵活重构、多维度协同运行与决策提供有力模型与场景支撑。首先由预测误差驱动拟合多元功率预测误差概率分布,全面反映随机功率出力信息,提高模型泛化性;以时序相关范围参数为数据驱动关联变量,高效动态控制波动强度;最终场景生成利用逆变换映射思想保证置信度。然后针对典型场景提取,提出一种综合递归聚类思想的多段嵌套削减算法,结合改进Wasserstein距离指标,兼具准确、时效、稳定方面的优势。最后由对比实验论证该方法的前沿有效性。 相似文献
3.
This calibration device of radio comprehensive tester is studied and established in this paper. It solves the verification and
calibration of a large number of general-purpose radio comprehensive testers. The calibration device consists of four calibration sub-
systems and calibration software system, including RF generator, audio generator, audio analyzer and RF analyzer. It also researches
on the configuration of standard equipment and analyzes the uncertainty of the calibration devices, ensuring accurate and reliable val-
ue transfer. 相似文献
4.
5.
大坝服役非概率可靠性分析方法 总被引:4,自引:3,他引:1
针对大坝服役可靠性影响因子具有非概率不确定特征的情况,建立了定量刻画大坝服役可靠性非概率影响因子的Info-gap模型,运用Info-gap决策理论和体积比非概率可靠性度量方法,提出了大坝服役非概率可靠性分析方法,拟定了大坝服役非概率目标可靠度。应用提出的非概率方法分析了某大坝结构服役可靠性,各功能模式可靠性分析结果说明了该方法的工程适用性,同时也验证了所拟定大坝服役非概率目标可靠度的合理性。 相似文献
6.
In performing pavement life cycle assessment (LCA), users are facing various reports of energy intensity coefficient (EIC) of pavement materials which differ considerably among data sources and therefore alter the LCA results significantly. Instead of selecting a certain EIC without or of little explanation for the current pavement LCA practices, this study proposed a methodology to build probability density function (PDF) for EIC based on available data-set and their qualities. Each data was first evaluated about the data quality indicator (DQI) through data quality pedigree matrix and converted to PDF in modified Beta distribution form. Three weighting methods, the DQI one, coefficient of variation (COV) one and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) one, were developed to assign weightings for different data. Monte Carlo simulation was run with the weighted PDF of each data as input to obtain the ultimate PDF for EIC. A case study to estimate the bitumen’s EIC with eight data samples were performed using the proposed methodology. It is found (1): the estimates by the proposed methodology is of higher reliability (lower COV) compared to any single data due to utilisation of information of the overall data samples; (2) the AHP weighting method is most favoured despite the results of the three weighting methods are close; (3) the central estimates of bitumen’s EIC are between5.4~5.8 MJ/kg. The proposed methodology is helpful in aiding calculating EICs for pavement materials and capturing uncertainties in LCA results in a statistical sense. 相似文献
7.
Sen Yan 《国际生产研究杂志》2020,58(6):1724-1740
Facility disruptions in the supply chain often lead to catastrophic consequences, although they occur rarely. The low frequency and non-repeatability of disruptive events also make it impossible to estimate the disruption probability accurately. Therefore, we construct an uncertain programming model to design the three-echelon supply chain network with the disruption risk, in which disruptions are considered as uncertain events. Under the constraint of satisfying customer demands, the model optimises the selection of retailers with uncertain disruptions and the assignment of customers and retailers, in order to minimise the expected total cost of network design. In addition, we simplify the proposed model by analysing its properties and further linearise the simplified model. A Lagrangian relaxation algorithm for the linearised model and a genetic algorithm for the simplified model are developed to solve medium-scale problems and large-scale problems, respectively. Finally, we illustrate the effectiveness of proposed models and algorithms through several numerical examples. 相似文献
8.
ABSTRACTThe main issue in short-term planning optimisation for underground mining is organising the mining process with limited resources in the form of equipment and materials to satisfy production targets and stable feed grade requirements. In this paper, an integrated optimisation model is proposed based on an individual generation algorithm and an improved Genetic Algorithm to simultaneously optimise stope extraction sequencing and timing, extracted ore grade and equipment dispatching. The model objectives are to shorten the time gap between the stope mining processes and the overall working time. When the uncertainty of equipment working time is taken into account in a short-term scheduling model, the Monte Carlo simulation is applied to evaluate the risk of not meeting the production target. A modification strategy is defined to evaluate equipment failure. Consequently, any available equipment is automatically reassigned to the mining site to replace the broken-down equipment. A case study is used to validate the model in the Sanshandao gold mine of China to formulate an optimal monthly schedule. Compared with the conventional approach, the new model could reduce the variance of ore tonnage and feed grade and improve the equipment allocation efficiency. Discussions are presented to address the uncertainty. 相似文献
9.
When we speak about capacitance moisture meters for bulk materials we have to face with different values of dielectric permittivity for different bulk materials in dehydrated state, what causes a method error that can be named ‘type uncertainty’. Besides, different varieties of the same material have different values of dielectric permittivity, which depend from geographical origin, processing conditions etc. It can be hardly predicted automatically and type uncertainty can be compensated only in separate situations with the help of preliminary calibration. Main tasks of the research are to develop new comparison principle of moisture measurement with better accuracy due to effective compensation of physical, chemical and granulometric composition influence on the result of moisture measurement, develop new primary and secondary instrument transducers. Moisture sensor consists of four measuring capacitors. Two of them should be filled with a sample, which moisture content should be determined, and other pair of measuring capacitors should be filled with a same substance, but previously dehydrated. Mathematical models, developed to take into account granulometric composition of a bulk material were used to carry out a comparison analysis for three types of instrument measuring transducers. Obtained results proved that suggested principle of moisture measurement provides effective compensation of granulometric composition influence. Developed measuring principle had been experimentally tested what helped to confirm that it provides two times better compensation of different physical and chemical composition for different materials in comparison with the direct comparison method. 相似文献
10.
与传统比例-积分-微分(PID)控制方法相比,滑模控制(SMC)方法可以比较容易地将不确定性纳入控制器设计中,从而增强系统的鲁棒性。探索了SMC技术在运载器主动段姿态控制中的工程应用,首先通过分析基于趋近律的SMC系统,提出了降低不连续切换项系数的需求,然后研究了基于干扰上界的SMC方法。三通道小偏差仿真结果验证了两种方法的控制效果,表明第2种控制器的鲁棒性更好,稳态误差小,同时发动机喷管摆角需求较小。 相似文献