妫水河流域水文模拟及参数不确定性分析

以北京市延庆区妫水河为例,使用SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)模型对妫水河流域进行月尺度水文模拟,使用SUFI-2(Sequential Uncertainty Fitting)算法分析参数的敏感性,依据SWAT-CUP自动率定得到P因子和R因子分析模型的不确定性,从而完成本流域分布式水文模型的构建。率定结果显示,率定期确定系数R 2为0.65,效率系数NSE为0.61;验证期确定系数R 2为0.89,效率系数NSE为0.88;不确定性分析结果中P-factor均大于0.5,R-factor均小于0.3。通过以上分析可得该模型对妫水河流域的水文模拟有良好的效果。

Hydrological Modeling and Uncertainty Analysis of Parameters for Guishui River Basin

Taking Guishui River in Yanqing District of Beijing as an example,the monthly hydrological simulation of Guishui River Basin is carried out by using SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)model.The sensitivity of parameters is analyzed by using SUFI-2(Sequential Uncertainty Fitting)algorithm,and the uncertainty of P-factor and R-factor analysis model is obtained by automatic calibration of SWAT-CUP,so the construction of the distributed hydrological model for the basin is completed.The calibration results show that,(a)the determination coefficient R 2 is 0.65 and the efficiency coefficient NSE is 0.61 during the calibration period;(b)the determination coefficient R 2 is 0.89 and the efficiency coefficient NSE is 0.88 during the verification period;and(c)all P-factors are greater than 0.5 and all R-factors are less than 0.3.The model has a good effect on the hydrological simulation of Guishui River Basin.