增长的规律：中国用水极值预测

用水发展趋势及其增长极值事关水资源管理宏观决策和重大水利基础设施布局,本文提出了"经济社会规模-生产水平-水资源供给"用水变化三元驱动机制,构建了受制于资源约束的适应性用水增长曲线(AIR曲线)和增长规律,总结提出了达到用水极限峰值时的经济社会特征参数与定量判别依据。研究以地级行政区为基本单元,分类判别了全国358个地级行政区用水量增长趋势,集合预测了全国及分区用水极限峰值及其发生时点,结果显示:在最严格水资源管理制度框架和既有工程规划体系下,中国用水极限峰值约为6480亿m~3,极值时点大概率会出现在2037年。综合中国用水历史规律和未来预测,提出了现状用水总量拐点的假象和供给"天花板"现象,研判了分行业需求增长趋势,探讨了中国用水极限峰值的不确定性。

The law of growth: prediction of peak water consumption in China

The development trend and growth limit of total water consumption are related to the macro deci-sion-making of national water resources management and the layout of major water conservancy facilities. This paper proposed the ternary water-use driving mechanism of socioeconomic scale, production level and water supply, constructed an Adaptive Increase Curve Yielding to the Resource-Constrained (AIR curve) and growth law, and summarized and put forward the socioeconomic characteristic parameters and quantita-tive discrimination basis related to the emergence of peak water consumption. The study took prefecture-lev-el cities as the basic unit, classified and judged the future growth trend of total water consumption of 358 prefecture-level administrative regions in China,and further predicted national and regional peak water con-sumption and their occurrence time. The results show that under the framework of the most stringent water resources management system and existing engineering planning system, China''s water consumption peak is likely occur in 2037, with a peak water consumption of about 648 billion m³. Based on the historical law and future forecast of China''s water consumption, this paper put forward the illusion of the current inflec-tion point of total water consumption and the phenomenon of water supply ceiling, analyzed the growth trend of water demand of different sectors, and discussed the uncertainty of the peak water consumption in China.