Robust optimal operation of continuous catalytic reforming process under feedstock uncertainty

The continuous catalytic regenerative (CCR) reforming process is one of the most significant sources of hydrogen production in the petroleum refining process. However, the fluctuations in feedstock composition and flow rate could significantly affect both product distribution and energy consumption. In this study, a robust deviation criterion based multi-objective optimization approach is proposed to perform the optimal operation of CCR reformer under feedstock uncertainty, with simultaneous maximization of product yields and minimization of energy consumption. Minimax approach is adopted to handle these uncertain objectives, and the Latin hypercube sampling method is then used to calculate these robust deviation criteria. Multi-objective surrogate-based optimization methods are next introduced to effectively solve the robust operational problem with high computational cost. The level diagram method is finally utilized to assist in multi-criteria decision-making. Two robust operational optimization problems with different objectives are solved to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method for robust optimal operation of the CCR reforming process under feedstock uncertainty.     

Transport Map sampling with PGD model reduction for fast dynamical Bayesian data assimilation

The motivation of this work is to address real-time sequential inference of parameters with a full Bayesian formulation. First, the proper generalized decomposition (PGD) is used to reduce the computational evaluation of the posterior density in the online phase. Second, Transport Map sampling is used to build a deterministic coupling between a reference measure and the posterior measure. The determination of the transport maps involves the solution of a minimization problem. As the PGD model is quasi-analytical and under a variable separation form, the use of gradient and Hessian information speeds up the minimization algorithm. Eventually, uncertainty quantification on outputs of interest of the model can be easily performed due to the global feature of the PGD solution over all coordinate domains. Numerical examples highlight the performance of the method.     

冠状动脉系统的微分积分终端滑模混沌抑制

冠状动脉系统的混沌现象会导致严重的健康问题。以非线性冠状动脉系统为研究对象，建立了不确定性冠状动脉系统动力学模型，提出了不确定性冠状动脉系统的微分积分终端滑模混沌抑制方法，针对该模型的不确定性设计了扰动观测器，根据Lyapunov理论证明了所设计控制系统的稳定性，通过仿真实验验证了所提出的混沌抑制方法的有效性和可行性。     

基于多时间尺度和多源储能的综合能源系统能量协调优化调度

考虑源荷不确定性及储能设备配置对综合能源系统IES(integrated energy system)优化调度的影响,提出基于多时间尺度和多源储能的IES能量协调优化调度策略。该策略以系统运行经济最优、滚动控制时域内购能成本与储能惩罚成本之和最低以及设备输出功率调整量最小为目标,分别建立了日前、日内滚动和实时反馈3个时间尺度的优化调度模型。在日前考虑多种储能模式对IES经济性的影响;日内利用场景分析法描述滚动预测的不确定性来提高系统经济运行稳定性;再基于模型预测控制方法,构建日内与实时的反馈闭环优化,平抑由预测误差导致的系统功率波动。仿真结果表明:多源储能模式有助于提高IES的经济性;多时间尺度调度既可以保证IES运行的经济性,又能有效降低不确定性对系统实际运行的影响,减轻电网平抑功率波动负担。     

自动电位滴定仪示值误差测量不确定度评定

按照JJG 814-2015规定,自动电位滴定仪需进行电计示值误差和仪器示值误差检定,本文例举对这两项检定结果进行不确定度评定,供相关人员参考。     

考虑不确定性的大坝监测信息异常诊断方法及应用

大坝监测资料分析是一个充满不确定性的复杂非线性问题,常规的分析方法较少考虑监测信息中的不确定性问题,导致分析结果的合理性存疑。因此,基于信息熵理论的重要指标——近似熵研究大坝监测信息中的不确定性问题,利用实际监测数据选取近似熵算法的关键参数,进而评估大坝的运行状态。通过分析混凝土坝坝顶水平位移和土石坝测压管水位,发现近似熵算法能在若干监测信息不确定性条件下较有效地识别大坝监测数据的异常。     

电感耦合等离子质谱法测定豆制品中铝含量的不确定度评定及方法改进

本文采用微波消解-电感耦合等离子体质谱法（ICP-MS）测定豆制品中铝的含量，对测定过程中可能引入的不确定度进行分析和评定。根据CNAS-CL01-G003:2019对测定不确定度的有关要求，建立了不确定度评定的数学模型，分析不确定度的主要来源，并将各分量进行合成。当铝含量为39.56mg/kg时，扩展不确定度为2.51mg/kg(k=2)。针对引起测定不确定度的主要贡献者，通过几种改变测量方法的途径，使其中3 个主要分量分别从0. 019 662、0. 002 412、0.002 74下降为0. 010 085、 0. 001 520、0. 001 66，效果显著，达到了降低影响结果准确性因素的目的。     

Hypervariate constitutive modeling illustrated via aleatory uncertainty in a foundation model

Even if a ceramic's homogenized properties (such as anisotropically evolving stiffness) truly can be predicted from complete knowledge of sub-continuum morphology (e.g., locations, sizes, shapes, orientations, and roughness of trillions of crystals, dislocations, impurities, pores, inclusions, and/or cracks), the necessary calculations are untenably hypervariate. Non-productive (almost derailing) debates over shortcomings of various first-principles ceramics theories are avoided in this work by discussing numerical coarsening in the context of a pedagogically appealing buckling foundation model that requires only sophomore-level understanding of springs, buckling hinges, dashpots, etc. Bypassing pre-requisites in constitutive modeling, this work aims to help students to understand the difference between damage and plasticity while also gaining experience in Monte-Carlo numerical optimization via scale-bridging that reduces memory and processor burden by orders of magnitude while accurately preserving aleatory (finite-sampling) perturbations that are crucial to accurately predict bifurcations, such as ceramic fragmentation.