一个基于专家知识的不确定性分析推理系统

本文介绍EXDASS系统中进行不确定性分析的推理系统.该系统的工作方式是依据专 家对不确定性作出判断的有关知识信息,通过人机交互的动态过程以实现对决策的支持.专 家知识的量化表示及其推理机制的实现以可能性证据理论为基础.文中描述了系统的设计思 想和工作原理,重点介绍了在知识表示方面的自学习特性,并且给出了应用实例.

An Expert Knowledge-Based Inference System Dealing with Uncertainties

This paper presents an inference system dealing with uncertainties, which is included in EXDASS. Based on expert knowledge estimating and predicting uncertainties/risks, the system provides some supports to decision making through a man-computer dynamic interactive procedure. The paper illustrates the possibilistic evidence theory, which makes up the theoretical foundation of the expert knowledge representation and the inference mechanism. The design priciples and the framework of the system are expounded with an application case, especially, some self-learning features of the system are discussed.