水文模型不确定性及集合模拟总体框架

水文过程集合模拟将多种确定性和不确定性方法及物理模型和数值模型进行耦合集成,是当前减少水文过程模拟预报不确定性影响的一种有效方法。本文在回顾水文模型发展历程的基础上,从模型输入、模型参数和模型结构三方面的不确定性出发,剖析了水文模型不确定性的原因,最后对水文过程集合模拟的特点、总体框架及主要方法进行了评述。

Uncertainty of hydrologic model and general framework of ensemble simulation

The ensemble simulation of hydrological process coupledly integrates several certain and uncertain methods as well as physical and numerical models， and then it is an effective method to reduce the impact of uncertainty on the simulation and forecast of hydrological process.On the basis of reviewing the development process of the hydrological model， the causation of the uncertainty of the hydrological model is analyzed herein from the aspects of the input， parameter and structure of the model.Finally， the feature，framework and typical methods of the ensemble simulation of hydrological process are expatiated as well.