二维随机水质预测模型及其应用

在分析香溪河流域污染特点的基础上 ,建立了一个二维随机水质数学模型 ,该水质模型把一维水质随机降解模型和二维迁移扩散模型相结合 ,同时考虑了各水质参数K1,K2 ,K3 和河道横向扩散系数Dy 的随机性影响 ,该模型适用于较复杂水力条件和排污范围大的水体 ,对于平面二维的任一个计算点 ,它都能给出该点水质浓度随机变化的概率分布 ,用该模型对三峡建库后的香溪河库湾水质进行预测 ,其成果可为三峡库区水环境保护及规划治理提供设计数据

Two-dimensional stochastic model for predicting water quality and its application

Based on analyzing pollution characteristics of the basin of Xiangxi River, a tributary of the Yangtze River in the Three Gorges area, a two_dimensional stochastic water quality model has been established. This model is established by combining one_dimensional stochastic degradation model and two_dimensional transfer_diffusing model, and meanwhite considering the stochastic influences of the respective water quality parameters K\-1,K\-2,K\-3 and the river's cross diffusing coefficient D\-y. This model is suitable to more complex hydraulic condition and more wide draining contamination area. For anywhere of a river, the model can figure out the probability distribution of water pollutants' consistance. Also, the model can be easily extended to the similar water quality models like BOD-NOD-DO, biochemical oxygen demand-NOD-dissolved oxygen. Then, with the model, the paper analyses and predicts the water quality of the firth of Xiangxi River after the three Gorges reservoir has been built. The results can be used as reference data for protecting and programming water quality in the Three Gorges reservoir area.