新建高速公路潜在事故风险点（段）识别方法

针对处于运营初期的新建高速公路缺乏历史事故资料，难以从统计学的角度分析事故分布规律的问题，以道路线形等设计资料为基础，利用模糊综合评判法进行潜在事故风险点(段)识别。根据线形特征划分道路单元，选取能反映线形特征的潜在事故风险点(段)识别指标，提出了疲劳驾驶和超速行驶的量化方法，并考虑每个道路单元自身的特点，用超标率法对确定指标权重的过程做了改进。利用MATLAB模糊逻辑工具箱和Simulink组件构建模型，实现模糊综合评判的全过程。最后，根据识别结果，对照设计资料，对识别出的潜在事故风险点(段)成因做出了分析。

Identification Method of Newly-built Highway Accident Black Spots or Sections

The highway in initial operation period is short of statistical data, so it is hard to research the accident rules in statistics. By using the design data of road alignment and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, a method to identify potential risk spots or sections was proposed. The road was divided into units according to road alignment characteristics. The indexes which reflect alignment characteristics were chosen. Ways of quantity of the risk of fatigue driving and speeding were proposed. Considering that every unit has its own characteristics, the way to determine the index weight was improved by the over standard rate. The model was built by using fuzzy logic toolbox and Simulink of MATLAB to realize the process of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Finally, the cause of potential risk spots or sections was analyzed according to the identification results and design data. The results indicate that every potential risk spot or section has unreasonable alignment design which is dangerous.