计及负荷预测误差的可中断负荷优化管理

综合考虑了在可中断负荷管理中存在的电力公司与用户信息不对称性、用户潜在的违约概率以及负荷预测误差等问题,创建了计及负荷预测误差的可中断负荷优化管理模型.该模型应用委托一代理理论来解决信息不对称问题,采用模糊概率理论求解包含违约惩罚的中断补偿,分析了负荷预测误差修正对电力公司支出的影响.算例证明,该模型能够激励用户上报真实的中断类型以获得最大补偿;促使用户减小违约概率从而增加其所获补偿;同时,引入负荷预测误差修正之后,可以减少电力公司的支出,有利于电力公司降低由负荷预测误差带来的市场风险.

The interruptible load optimization management considering the load forecast error

Considering the information asymmetry of the power companies and users in demand side,the potential probability of default of users,and the load forecast error,this paper creates the interruptible load optimization management model.The model uses the principal-agent theory to solve the problem of information asymmetr;the fuzzy theory to get the interruption compensation including default publishment;and analyze the effect of the power companies’ spend which contains the load forecast error correction.Finally by an example,it proves that the model can effectively encourage the user to obtain maximum profits by reporting the real interruptible type;and by reducing the probability of default the user can get more compensation;the power companies decrease their pay and low the market risk by introducing the load forecast error correction.