不确定健康评估下基于状态维修的效果研究

基于状态维修（CBM）已成为复杂装备的新兴保障模式，装备健康评估结果是触发CBM的依据，不确定的健康评估势必会对装备的CBM行为产生影响，进而影响装备的战备完好性。针对该问题，首先定义正确评估率、过评估率和欠评估率指标定量描述装备健康评估的不确定性，应用稳态可用度描述装备的CBM效果。然后利用状态离散马尔可夫过程和稳态平衡原理，建立稳态可用度与正确评估率、过评估率之间的关联关系，为健康评估理论的进一步研究提供依据。最后通过具体算例验证了本文所提方法的可行性和合理性。

Study on Condition-based Maintenance Effect Under uncertain Health Evaluation

Condition-based maintenance(CBM),which is triggered by equipment health evaluation results,has become a new support mode of complex equipment.Aiming at the problem that uncertain health evaluation has certainly an impact on CBM behavior,and further on equipment operational readiness,three quantitative indexes,including accurate evaluation probability,excessive evaluation probability and deficient evaluation probability,were firstly defined to describe the uncertainty of health evaluation,and the steady-state availability was applied to describe CBM effect.Then the discrete state Markov process and the steady-state balance theory were used to construct the dependency among steady-state availability and accurate evaluation probability and excessive evaluation probability,which provides the base for further study of health evaluation theory.Finally,two cases were used to validate and verify the proposed method.The results show that the proposed method is feasible and effective.