| Study on Storage Reliability Evaluation for Ammunition Using Gibbs Sampler |
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| 作者姓名： | 林静 朱慧明 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, China; [2]Management School, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, China |
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| 摘 要： | For the gradual maturity of Bayesian survival analysis theory, as well as the defects of the traditional methods for storage reliability evaluation, the Bayesian survival analysis method is proposed to build regression models for reliability in the random truncated test. These models can reflect the influences of different environments on the ammunition storage lifetime. As an example, the common exponential distribution is used here, and Markov chain Monte Carlo（MCMC） method based on Gibbs sampling dynamically simulates the Markov chain of the parameters＇ posterior distribution. Also, the parameters＇ Bayesian estimations are calculated in the random truncated condition. The simulation results show that the proposed method is effective and directly perceived.
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| 关 键 词： | 弹药储藏 稳定性评估 贝叶斯分析 统计数学 |
| 文章编号： | 1673-002X（2007）04-0268-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2007-05-08 |
Study on Storage Reliability Evaluation for Ammunition Using Gibbs Sampler |
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| LIN Jing,ZHU Hui-ming.Study on Storage Reliability Evaluation for Ammunition Using Gibbs Sampler[J].Journal of China Ordnance,2007,3(4):268-271. |
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| Authors: | LIN Jing ZHU Hui-ming |
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| Abstract: | For the gradual maturity of Bayesian survival analysis theory, as well as the defects of the traditional methods for storage reliability evaluation, the Bayesian survival analysis method is proposed to build regression models for reliability in the random truncated test. These models can reflect the influences of different environments on the ammunition storage lifetime. As an example, the common exponential distribution is used here, and Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)method based on Gibbs sampling dynamically simulates the Markov chain of the parameters' posterior distribution. Also,the parameters' Bayesian estimations are calculated in the random truncated condition. The simulation results show that the proposed method is effective and directly perceived. |
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| Keywords: | applied statistics mathematics Bayesian analysis ammunition storage reliability Gibbs sampler MCMC method Gibbs Sampler Reliability Evaluation Storage simulation results show effective condition posterior exponential distribution method based sampling dynamically Markov chain Monte Carlo parameters MCMC common used example models |
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