Uncertainty,belief, and probability1

We introduce a new probabilistic approach to dealing with uncertainty, based on the observation that probability theory does not require that every event be assigned a probability. For a nonmeasurable event (one to which we do not assign a probability), we can talk about only the inner measure and outer measure of the event. In addition to removing the requirement that every event be assigned a probability, our approach circumvents other criticisms of probability-based approaches to uncertainty. For example, the measure of belief in an event turns out to be represented by an interval (defined by the inner and outer measures), rather than by a single number. Further, this approach allows us to assign a belief (inner measure) to an event E without committing to a belief about its negation -E (since the inner measure of an event plus the inner measure of its negation is not necessarily one). Interestingly enough, inner measures induced by probability measures turn out to correspond in a precise sense to Dempster-Shafer belief functions. Hence, in addition to providing promising new conceptual tools for dealing with uncertainty, our approach shows that a key part of the important Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is firmly rooted in classical probability theory. Cet article présente une nouvelle approche probabiliste en ce qui concerne le traitement de l'incertitude; celle-ci est basée sur l'observation que la théorie des probabilityés n'exige pas qu'une probabilityé soit assignée à chaque événement. Dans le cas d'un événement non mesurable (un événement pour lequel on n'assigne aucune probabilityé), nous ne pouvons discuter que de la mesure intérieure et de la mesure extérieure de l'évenément. En plus d'éliminer la nécessité d'assigner une probabilityéà l'événement, cette nouvelle approche apporte une réponse aux autres critiques des approches à l'incertitude basées sur des probabilityés. Par exemple, la mesure de croyance dans un événement est représentée par un intervalle (défini par la mesure intérieure et extérieure) plutǒt que par un nombre unique. De plus, cette approche nous permet d'assigner une croyance (mesure intérieure) à un événement E sans se compromettre vers une croyance à propos de sa négation -E (puisque la mesure intérieure d'un événement et la mesure intérieure de sa négation ne sont pas nécessairement une seule et unique mesure). II est intéressant de noter que les mesures intérieures qui résultent des mesures de probabilityé correspondent d'une manière précise aux fonctions de croyance de Dempster-Shafer. En plus de constituer un nouvel outil conceptuel prometteur dans le traitement de l'incertitude, cette approche démontre qu'une partie importante de la théorie de l'évidence de Dempster-Shafer est fermement ancrée dans la theorie classique des probabilityés.     

Ozonation of CI Reactive Black 5 using rotating packed bed and stirred tank reactor

This study investigates the ozonation of CI Reactive Black 5 (RB5) by using the rotating packed bed (RPB) and completely stirred tank reactor (CSTR) as ozone contactors. The RPB, which provides high gravitational force by adjusting the rotational speed, was employed as a novel ozone contactor. The same ozone dosage was separately introduced into either the RPB or the CSTR for the investigation, while the experimental solution was continuously circulated within the apparatus consisting of the RPB and CSTR. The decolorization and mineralization efficiencies of RB5 in the course of ozonation are compared for these two methods. Moreover, the dissolved and off‐gas ozone concentrations were simultaneously monitored for the further analysis. As a result, the ozone mass transfer rate per unit volume of the RPB was significantly higher because of its higher mass transfer coefficient and gas–liquid concentration driving force. Furthermore, ozonation kinetics was found to be independent of the gravitational magnitude of an ozone gas–liquid contactor. Therefore, the results suggest employing RPBs as ozone‐contacting devices with the advantage of volume reduction. The experimental results, which can be used for further modeling of the ozonation process in the RPB, also show the requirement of correct design for the RPB. Consequently, the present study is useful for the understanding of practical application of RPBs. Copyright © 2004 Society of Chemical Industry     

亚毫米波系统探测距离分析

本文提出了距离的概率分布函数作为系统的性能指标，提高了系统评价的准确性。     

熔窑玻璃液流数值模拟的新发展

熔窑玻璃液流数值模拟的新发展赵国昌（清华大学核能技术设计研究院，１０００８４）ＮｅｗＤｅｖｅｌｏｐｍｅｎｔｏｆｔｈｅＮｕｍｅｒｉｃａｌＳｉｍｕｌａｔｉｏｎｆｏｒＦｌｏｗａｎｄＨｅａｔＴｒａｎｓｆｅｒｏｆＧｌａｓｓＭｅｌｔｉｎＴａｎｋＦｕｒｎａｃｅ￥Ｚ...     

Stabilization of inter-area and/or oscillatory modes in large-scale power system by voltage impedance power system (VIPS) apparatus based on decentralized control scheme

New technologies such as power electronics have made it possible to change continuously the impedance of a power system not only to control power flow but also to enhance stability. A power system incorporating a variable impedance apparatus such as a variable series capacitor (VSrC) and high-speed phase shifter (HSPS) is called VIPS (Variable Impedance Power System) by the authors. This paper proposes a novel control method of VIPS apparatus such as VSrC and HSPS installed at an interconnecting point for stabilizing inter-area unstable and/or oscillatory modes. The proposed design method of the control system is a kind of hierarchical decentralized control method of a large-scale power system based on a Lyapunov function. Under the proposed control scheme, each subsystem can be stabilized independently by local controllers such as AVR, speed governor and PSS, and then the whole interconnected system can be stabilized by VIPS apparatus taking into account interactions between subsystems. The effectiveness and robustness of the VIPS apparatus control are shown by numerical examples with model systems including a large-scale power system.     

通用串行总线(USB)数据传输模型

USB作为一种数据传输接口，了解它的通信传输机制是正确利用USB利用数据传输的基础，分层次结构对USB数据传输模型加以分析，可以使读者建立起USB体系结构、通信模型和总线事务的框架和概念，并最终对USB传输工作流程有一个清晰的认识。     

脉冲化学沉积非晶态Ni—P合金原子分布函数研究

采用Ｘ射线衍射分析技术，研究了脉冲化学镀非晶态Ｎｉ－Ｐ合金的原子分布和函数，得出其短程有序原子集团的尺度为０．７５４ｎｍ，约为熔体激冷法获得的非晶态Ｎｉ－Ｐ合金短程有序畴的１／２。并利用脉冲化学沉积非晶态合金的微机制择这一结果进行了解释。     

Nonlinear adaptive algorithms for equalisation in mobile satellite communications

This paper considers the equalisation problem in Quadrature Phase-Shift Keying (QPSK) modulated signals which have been distorted by the passage through a transmission channel. The channel is modelled as a Rician fading channel to simulate the behaviour of the transmission channel in the mobile satellite context. The equalisation is treated as the generalisation of the channel behaviour, and some algorithms with the structure of an artificial neural network using the Multilayer Perceptron, Volterra Series and Radial Basis Function are described. Results for the BER performance of typical transversal equalisers, with Square-Root Kalman adaptation algorithm, and algorithms with artificial neural network structure are also reported and evaluated. Improved performance is exhibited by the artificial neural network approaches.     

An exploration of the problems of using function points mark II

Abstract. This paper examines critically the function point analysis mark II (FPA mark II) method of measuring the functionality of information systems. Although the focus of the paper is on FPA mark II as devised by Symons, both this and the Albrecht method, from which the FPA mark II was developed, are briefly discussed. The published attempts to validate FPA mark II are reviewed and then the problems encountered by the author in applying the approach are described. The final part of the paper is concerned with the fit between SSADM and FPA mark II.     

热流法计算高温炉内辐射传热

高温炉内的辐射传热是工业生产中常遇到的问题。过去，人们在应用热流法计算辐射传热时遇到了一定的困难，使计算结果与实际有一定的偏差。本文运用文献［１］中给出的新热流数学模型，开发出由新热流方程与能量方程相耦合的计算机程序，其中的比热流参数由线加热热源情况下计算得到。用该程序计算了实验室用马弗炉内的温度场，并且用热电偶实测了炉内的一些温度值，理论计算与实测值符合很好。