Uncertainty,belief, and probability1

We introduce a new probabilistic approach to dealing with uncertainty, based on the observation that probability theory does not require that every event be assigned a probability. For a nonmeasurable event (one to which we do not assign a probability), we can talk about only the inner measure and outer measure of the event. In addition to removing the requirement that every event be assigned a probability, our approach circumvents other criticisms of probability-based approaches to uncertainty. For example, the measure of belief in an event turns out to be represented by an interval (defined by the inner and outer measures), rather than by a single number. Further, this approach allows us to assign a belief (inner measure) to an event E without committing to a belief about its negation -E (since the inner measure of an event plus the inner measure of its negation is not necessarily one). Interestingly enough, inner measures induced by probability measures turn out to correspond in a precise sense to Dempster-Shafer belief functions. Hence, in addition to providing promising new conceptual tools for dealing with uncertainty, our approach shows that a key part of the important Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence is firmly rooted in classical probability theory. Cet article présente une nouvelle approche probabiliste en ce qui concerne le traitement de l'incertitude; celle-ci est basée sur l'observation que la théorie des probabilityés n'exige pas qu'une probabilityé soit assignée à chaque événement. Dans le cas d'un événement non mesurable (un événement pour lequel on n'assigne aucune probabilityé), nous ne pouvons discuter que de la mesure intérieure et de la mesure extérieure de l'évenément. En plus d'éliminer la nécessité d'assigner une probabilityéà l'événement, cette nouvelle approche apporte une réponse aux autres critiques des approches à l'incertitude basées sur des probabilityés. Par exemple, la mesure de croyance dans un événement est représentée par un intervalle (défini par la mesure intérieure et extérieure) plutǒt que par un nombre unique. De plus, cette approche nous permet d'assigner une croyance (mesure intérieure) à un événement E sans se compromettre vers une croyance à propos de sa négation -E (puisque la mesure intérieure d'un événement et la mesure intérieure de sa négation ne sont pas nécessairement une seule et unique mesure). II est intéressant de noter que les mesures intérieures qui résultent des mesures de probabilityé correspondent d'une manière précise aux fonctions de croyance de Dempster-Shafer. En plus de constituer un nouvel outil conceptuel prometteur dans le traitement de l'incertitude, cette approche démontre qu'une partie importante de la théorie de l'évidence de Dempster-Shafer est fermement ancrée dans la theorie classique des probabilityés.     

亚毫米波系统探测距离分析

本文提出了距离的概率分布函数作为系统的性能指标，提高了系统评价的准确性。     

一种新型陶瓷材料及其耐磨性

对新型Ａｌ２Ｏ３－ＴｉＣ－Ｃｏ陶瓷的磨粒磨损，冲蚀磨损及其在单颗粒作用下的摩擦磨损行为进行了研究。与ＡＴ３０（７０ｗｔ％Ａｌ２Ｏ３－３０ｗｔ％ＴｉＣ）陶瓷相比，Ａｌ２Ｏ３－ＴｉＣ－Ｃｏ陶瓷具有更为良好的耐磨性，金属钴的存在提高了基体的韧性，细化了晶粒，其综合力学性能得到了显著提高，ＡＴＣ陶瓷样品耐磨性与其强韧化水平和细致的组织结构有关。     

现代民间青花与现代陶艺

现代民间青花与现代陶艺都是火与土的艺术，都具有粗犷，质朴、自然、大方的共同艺术特点。前者在传统民间青花的基础上，汲取了现代陶瓷科技成就和现代文化艺术成果，而发展成为富有现代艺术意蕴和现代审判内涵的新型民间青花艺术；而后者则是从传统陶艺延伸、扩展、蜕变为纯粹艺术表达和具有独特审判内涵的一门现代艺术。     

Stabilization of inter-area and/or oscillatory modes in large-scale power system by voltage impedance power system (VIPS) apparatus based on decentralized control scheme

New technologies such as power electronics have made it possible to change continuously the impedance of a power system not only to control power flow but also to enhance stability. A power system incorporating a variable impedance apparatus such as a variable series capacitor (VSrC) and high-speed phase shifter (HSPS) is called VIPS (Variable Impedance Power System) by the authors. This paper proposes a novel control method of VIPS apparatus such as VSrC and HSPS installed at an interconnecting point for stabilizing inter-area unstable and/or oscillatory modes. The proposed design method of the control system is a kind of hierarchical decentralized control method of a large-scale power system based on a Lyapunov function. Under the proposed control scheme, each subsystem can be stabilized independently by local controllers such as AVR, speed governor and PSS, and then the whole interconnected system can be stabilized by VIPS apparatus taking into account interactions between subsystems. The effectiveness and robustness of the VIPS apparatus control are shown by numerical examples with model systems including a large-scale power system.     

脉冲化学沉积非晶态Ni—P合金原子分布函数研究

采用Ｘ射线衍射分析技术，研究了脉冲化学镀非晶态Ｎｉ－Ｐ合金的原子分布和函数，得出其短程有序原子集团的尺度为０．７５４ｎｍ，约为熔体激冷法获得的非晶态Ｎｉ－Ｐ合金短程有序畴的１／２。并利用脉冲化学沉积非晶态合金的微机制择这一结果进行了解释。     

驱动压电陶瓷的高压放大器

概述了高压放大器的基本组成，以及采用高压稳压电源措施，提高高压放大器的性能，并简述了高压放大器输出级的工作原理，给出了过渡保护方法。     

Nonlinear adaptive algorithms for equalisation in mobile satellite communications

This paper considers the equalisation problem in Quadrature Phase-Shift Keying (QPSK) modulated signals which have been distorted by the passage through a transmission channel. The channel is modelled as a Rician fading channel to simulate the behaviour of the transmission channel in the mobile satellite context. The equalisation is treated as the generalisation of the channel behaviour, and some algorithms with the structure of an artificial neural network using the Multilayer Perceptron, Volterra Series and Radial Basis Function are described. Results for the BER performance of typical transversal equalisers, with Square-Root Kalman adaptation algorithm, and algorithms with artificial neural network structure are also reported and evaluated. Improved performance is exhibited by the artificial neural network approaches.     

An exploration of the problems of using function points mark II

Abstract. This paper examines critically the function point analysis mark II (FPA mark II) method of measuring the functionality of information systems. Although the focus of the paper is on FPA mark II as devised by Symons, both this and the Albrecht method, from which the FPA mark II was developed, are briefly discussed. The published attempts to validate FPA mark II are reviewed and then the problems encountered by the author in applying the approach are described. The final part of the paper is concerned with the fit between SSADM and FPA mark II.