基于多通道的ICU脑血管疾病死亡风险预测模型

死亡风险预测指根据病人临床体征监测数据来预测未来一段时间的死亡风险。对于ICU病患，通过死亡风险预测可以有针对性地对病人做出临床诊断，以及合理安排有限的医疗资源。基于临床使用的MEWS和Glasgow昏迷评分量表，针对ICU病人临床监测的17项生理参数，提出一种基于多通道的ICU脑血管疾病死亡风险预测模型。引入多通道概念应用于BiLSTM模型，用于突出每个生理参数对死亡风险预测的作用。采用Attention机制用于提高模型预测精度。实验数据来自MIMIC [Ⅲ]数据库，从中提取3?080位脑血管疾病患者的16?260条记录用于此次研究，除了六组超参数实验之外，将所提模型与LSTM、Multichannel-BiLSTM、逻辑回归（logistic regression）和支持向量机（support vector machine, SVM）四种模型进行了对比分析，准确率Accuracy、灵敏度Sensitive、特异性Specificity、AUC-ROC和AUC-PRC作为评价指标，实验结果表明，所提模型性能优于其他模型，AUC值达到94.3%。     

Breeding schemes with optimum-contribution selection or truncation selection for beef cattle destined for use on dairy females

We tested the hypothesis that the size of a beef cattle population destined for use on dairy females is smaller under optimum-contribution selection (OCS) than under truncation selection (TRS) at the same genetic gain (ΔG) and the same rate of inbreeding (ΔF). We used stochastic simulation to estimate true ΔG realized at a 0.005 ΔF in breeding schemes with OCS or TRS. The schemes for the beef cattle population also differed in the number of purebred offspring per dam and the total number of purebred offspring per generation. Dams of the next generation were exclusively selected among the one-year-old heifers. All dams were donors for embryo transfer and produced a maximum of 5 or 10 offspring. The total number of purebred offspring per generation was: 400, 800, 1,600 or 4,000 calves, and it was used as a measure of population size. Rate of inbreeding was predicted and controlled using pedigree relationships. Each OCS (TRS) scheme was simulated for 10 discrete generations and replicated 100 (200) times. The OCS scheme and the TRS scheme with a maximum of 10 offspring per dam required approximately 783 and 1,257 purebred offspring per generation to realize a true ΔG of €14 and a ΔF of 0.005 per generation. Schemes with a maximum of 5 offspring per dam required more purebred offspring per generation to realize a similar true ΔG and a similar ΔF. Our results show that OCS and multiple ovulation and embryo transfer act on selection intensity through different mechanisms to achieve fewer selection candidates and fewer selected sires and dams than under TRS at the same ΔG and a fixed ΔF. Therefore, we advocate the use of a breeding scheme with OCS and multiple ovulation and embryo transfer for beef cattle destined for use on dairy females because it is favorable both from an economic perspective and a carbon footprint perspective.     

Improved error performance for generalised spatial modulation with enhanced spectral efficiency

The existing analytical average bit error rate (ABER) expression of conventional generalised spatial modulation (CGSM) does not agree well with the Monte Carlo simulation results in the low signal‐to‐noise ratio (SNR) region. Hence, the first contribution of this paper is to derive a new and easy way to evaluate analytical ABER expression that improves the validation of the simulation results at low SNRs. Secondly, a novel system termed CGSM with enhanced spectral efficiency (CGSM‐ESE) is presented. This system is realised by applying a rotation angle to one of the two active transmit antennas. As a result, the overall spectral efficiency is increased by 1 bit/s/Hz when compared with the equivalent CGSM system. In order to validate the simulation results of CGSM‐ESE, the third contribution is to derive an analytical ABER expression. Finally, to improve the ABER performance of CGSM‐ESE, three link adaptation algorithms are developed. By assuming full knowledge of the channel at the receiver, the proposed algorithms select a subset of channel gain vector (CGV) pairs based on the Euclidean distance between all CGV pairs, CGV splitting, CGV amplitudes, or a combination of these.     

一种新的多渐消因子容积卡尔曼滤波

将强跟踪思想引入容积卡尔曼滤波（cubature Kalman filter，CKF），建立强跟踪CKF能有效克服CKF在模型不确定、状态突变等情况下，滤波性能下降的问题。通过分析现有多渐消因子计算方法，发现它们均只利用了协方差矩阵的对角线元素，并没有考虑各个状态之间的相关性，不能充分发挥多渐消因子的优势。为此，本文提出渐消因子矩阵，基于正交原理推导渐消因子矩阵的求解方法，提出多渐消因子强跟踪CKF算法。多渐消因子强跟踪CKF算法突破了传统多渐消因子为向量的限制，也不再要求渐消因子取值要大于1。仿真验证了算法具有更好的滤波精度何鲁棒性，能更好的满足工程应用的要求。     

应用膨胀算法提取目标的直接定位算法

为了解决被动雷达系统中的多发射源定位问题，提出了一种基于多重信号分类(MUSIC)算法和图像膨胀(IE)算法的直接定位方法。该方法结合了谱分析中的MUSIC思想，通过对接收量测协方差矩阵进行特征分析求解目标的位置。首先，在目标个数未知的前提下，利用Akaike信息准则(AIC)来确定模型阶数；然后，推导了基于MUSIC的定位代价函数；之后，利用图像膨胀算法处理得到的代价函数平面；最后，膨胀处理后的输出为目标个数及目标位置的估计值。提出的算法有效地解决了目标检测及提取的问题，能够确定多个目标的位置坐标，为后续的定位性能分析提供可能性，也保证了算法的完整性。进一步地分析了多个临近目标情况下影响目标提取性能的主要因素。     

Sleep Disorders Reduce Health-Related Quality of Life in Multiple Sclerosis (Nottingham Health Profile Data in Patients with Multiple Sclerosis)

Quality of Life (QoL) is decreased in multiple sclerosis (MS), but studies about the impact of sleep disorders (SD) on health-related quality of Life (HRQoL) are lacking. From our original cohort, a cross-sectional polysomnographic (PSG) study in consecutive MS patients, we retrospectively analysed the previously unpublished data of the Nottingham Health Profile (NHP). Those MS patients suffering from sleep disorders (n = 49) showed significantly lower HRQoL compared to MS patients without sleep disorders (n = 17). Subsequently, we classified the patients into four subgroups: insomnia (n = 17), restless-legs syndrome, periodic limb movement disorder and SD due to leg pain (n = 24), obstructive sleep apnea (n = 8) and patients without sleep disorder (n = 17). OSA and insomnia patients showed significantly higher NHP values and decreased HRQoL not only for the sleep subscale but also for the “energy” and “emotional” area of the NHP. In addition, OSA patients also showed increased NHP values in the “physical abilities” area. Interestingly, we did not find a correlation between the objective PSG parameters and the subjective sleep items of the NHP. However, this study demonstrates that sleep disorders can reduce HRQoL in MS patients and should be considered as an important confounder in all studies investigating HRQoL in MS.     

Prediction of rock mass P wave velocity using blasthole drilling information

In this paper, the development of the models for the prediction of rock mass P wave velocity is presented. For model development, the database of 53 cases including widely used and recorded drilling parameters and P wave velocity was constructed from the field studies conducted in 13 open pit lignite mines. Both conventional linear, non-linear multiple regression and Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) were used for model development. Prediction performance indicators showed that ANFIS model presented the best performance and it can successfully be used for the preliminary prediction of P wave velocities of rock masses.     

基于注意力机制与文本信息的用户关系抽取

随着社交媒体的发展,用户之间的关系网络对于社交媒体的分析有很大的帮助。因此,该文主要研究用户好友关系检测。以往的关于用户好友关系抽取的研究主要基于社交媒体上的结构化信息,比如其他好友关系,用户的不同属性等。但是,很多时候用户本身并没有大量的好友信息存在,同时也不一定有很多确定的属性。因此,我们希望基于用户发表的文本信息来对用户关系进行预测。不同于以往的潜在好友推荐算法,该文提出了一种基于注意力机制以及长短时记忆网络(long short-term memory,LSTM)的好友关系预测模型,将好友之间的评论分开处理,通过分析用户之间的评论来判断是否具备一定的好友关系。该模型将好友双方信息拼接后的结果作为输入,并将注意力机制应用于LSTM的输出。实验表明,用户之间的评论对于好友关系预测确实有较大的实际意义,该文提出的模型较之于多个基准系统的效果,取得了明显的提升。在不加入任何其它非文本特征的情况下,实验结果的准确率达到了77%。     

海上稠油油田蒸汽吞吐产量确定新方法

针对目前蒸汽吞吐产量预测模型假设条件简单、普适性差等问题,一般采用测试法和类比法综合确定海上稠油油田蒸汽吞吐初期产量。由于目前海上油田通常只开展常规测试,无法直接获得热采开发初期产量。笔者提出海上稠油油田蒸汽吞吐初期产量确定新方法,建立蒸汽吞吐相对于常规开发的初期产量倍数预测模型,通过蒸汽吞吐产量倍数,将常规测试确定的产量转化为蒸汽吞吐产量。研究表明,蒸汽吞吐初期产量倍数主要受储集层渗透率、原油黏度、注入强度、蒸汽干度等因素影响,利用正交试验设计和多元回归等方法,建立海上稠油油田蒸汽吞吐初期产量倍数与油藏地质参数及注入参数之间的非线性预测模型,该模型经实际生产数据验证,预测误差小于5%,可靠性高,能够为海上稠油油田蒸汽吞吐初期产量的确定提供依据。