基于VMD和BSA-KELM的高陡边坡位移预测模型研究

边坡位移的时间序列曲线存在复杂的非线性特性,传统的预测模型精度不足以满足预测要求。为此提出了基于变分模态分解的鸟群优化-核极限学习机的预测模型,并用于河北省某水泥厂的边坡位移预测。该方法首先采用VMD把边坡位移序列分解为一系列的有限带宽的子序列,再对各子序列分别采用相空间重构并用核极限学习机预测,采用鸟群算法优化相空间重构的嵌入维度和KELM中惩罚系数和核参数三个数值,以取得最优预测模型。最后将各个子序列预测值叠加,得到边坡位移的最终预测值。结果表明：和KELM、BSA-KELM、EEMD-BSA-KELM模型相比,基于VMD的BSA-KELM预测精度更高,为边坡位移的预测提供一种有效的方法。     

Optical design of the Lyman alpha based beam emission spectroscopy(LAB)diagnostic on the HL-2A tokamak

In this article, we present the optical design of a novel diagnostic on the HL-2 A tokamak, i.e. the20-channel edge Lyman-alpha beam emission spectroscopy, which is a promising solution for edge density turbulence research on tokamaks, as it offers the possibility of density fluctuation measurement with a 3.3 mm spatial resolution while maintains a high temporal resolution of1 μs. The optical path, including the reflective collection optics, the high-dispersion spectrometer, and the linear detector array, is carefully optimized to obtain a good image quality and a high throughput. The maximum root mean square radius of the collection optics is 64 μm.The detected photon flux is estimated to be about 10~(11) photons/s/channel.     

Estimating long-term time-resolved indoor PM2.5 of outdoor and indoor origin using easily obtainable inputs

To evaluate the separate impacts on human health and establish effective control strategies, it is crucial to estimate the contribution of outdoor infiltration and indoor emission to indoor PM_2.5 in buildings. This study used an algorithm to automatically estimate the long-term time-resolved indoor PM_2.5 of outdoor and indoor origin in real apartments with natural ventilation. The inputs for the algorithm were only the time-resolved indoor/outdoor PM_2.5 concentrations and occupants’ window actions, which were easily obtained from the low-cost sensors. This study first applied the algorithm in an apartment in Tianjin, China. The indoor/outdoor contribution to the gross indoor exposure and time-resolved infiltration factor were automatically estimated using the algorithm. The influence of outdoor PM_2.5 data source and algorithm parameters on the estimated results was analyzed. The algorithm was then applied in four other apartments located in Chongqing, Shenyang, Xi'an, and Urumqi to further demonstrate its feasibility. The results provided indirect evidence, such as the plausible explanations for seasonal and spatial variation, to partially support the success of the algorithm used in real apartments. Through the analysis, this study also identified several further development directions to facilitate the practical applications of the algorithm, such as robust long-term outdoor PM_2.5 monitoring using low-cost light-scattering sensors.     

A Case Report of Germline Compound Heterozygous Mutations in the BRCA1 Gene of an Ovarian and Breast Cancer Patient

The germline carrier of the BRCA1 pathogenic mutation has been well proven to confer an increased risk of breast and ovarian cancer. Despite BRCA1 biallelic pathogenic mutations being extremely rare, they have been reported to be embryonically lethal or to cause Fanconi anemia (FA). Here we describe a patient who was a 48-year-old female identified with biallelic pathogenic mutations of the BRCA1 gene, with no or very subtle FA-features. She was diagnosed with ovarian cancer and breast cancer at the ages of 43 and 44 and had a strong family history of breast and gynecological cancers.     

河南省灵宝市董家埝银矿原生晕特征及地质意义

董家埝银矿是豫西小秦岭矿集区南成矿带目前发现的唯一大型矿床。为了矿床深部勘查工作的顺利进行,了解有用元素在垂向上的变化规律,选用原生晕地球化学方法,通过典型矿床剖面的原生晕特征研究,实现对深部矿体变化趋势的判断。经计算,确定As、Sb、Ag、Au、Cu、Pb、Zn、Co和Mo等9种元素可作为指示元素,其中As和Sb为前缘晕指示元素,Ag、Au、Cu、Pb和Zn为近矿晕指示元素,Co和Mo为尾晕指示元素。分带指数和浓集指数2种方法计算得出的元素在分带序列上的位置总体趋势一致。用分带指数法确定的主矿体自上而下的原生晕轴向分带序列为Co-Mo-Cu-Au-Sb-Zn-Pb-Ag-As,出现"反分带"现象。结合原生晕地球化学参数变化特征、矿体剥蚀程度研究和理想模型,预测M1-I主矿体向深部仍有较大的延伸。研究成果可以为区域同类型矿化地质体深部的趋势判断和决策提供参考。     

共享交通的时空轨迹检索与群体发现

为解决共享交通下的共乘用户群体发现效率低、准确率不高问题，依据R-树原理建立GeoOD-Tree索引，并在此基础上提出以最大化共乘率为目标的群体发现策略。首先，对原始时空轨迹数据进行特征提取与标定处理，挖掘有效出行起讫点（OD）轨迹；其次，针对用户起讫点轨迹的特征，建立GeoOD-Tree索引进行有效的存储管理；最后，给出以最大化共乘行程为目标的群体发现模型，并运用K最近邻（KNN）查询对搜索空间剪枝压缩，提高群体发现效率。采用西安市近12000辆出租车营运轨迹数据，选取动态时间规整（DTW）等典型算法与所提算法在查询效率与准确率上进行性能对比分析。与DTW算法相比，所提算法的准确率提高了10.12%，查询效率提高了约15倍。实验结果表明提出的群体发现策略能有效提高共乘用户群体发现的准确率和效率，可有效提升共乘出行方式的出行率。