基于VMD和BSA-KELM的高陡边坡位移预测模型研究

边坡位移的时间序列曲线存在复杂的非线性特性,传统的预测模型精度不足以满足预测要求。为此提出了基于变分模态分解的鸟群优化-核极限学习机的预测模型,并用于河北省某水泥厂的边坡位移预测。该方法首先采用VMD把边坡位移序列分解为一系列的有限带宽的子序列,再对各子序列分别采用相空间重构并用核极限学习机预测,采用鸟群算法优化相空间重构的嵌入维度和KELM中惩罚系数和核参数三个数值,以取得最优预测模型。最后将各个子序列预测值叠加,得到边坡位移的最终预测值。结果表明：和KELM、BSA-KELM、EEMD-BSA-KELM模型相比,基于VMD的BSA-KELM预测精度更高,为边坡位移的预测提供一种有效的方法。     

A hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average control chart for process monitoring: Discussion

The sensitivity of a monitoring scheme depends on many factors including the variance of the charting statistic which is very important in the computation of the control limits. This paper discusses the computation of the variance of the recently proposed hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average (HHWMA) $\overline{X}$ scheme which was based on an incorrect assumption. The correct variance is used to evaluate the run-length characteristics of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme. It is observed that the incorrect variance has a significant impact on the sensitivity (or performance) of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme.     

Green Measurements for Software Product Based on Sustainability Dimensions

Software is a central component in the modern world and vastly affects the environment’s sustainability. The demand for energy and resource requirements is rising when producing hardware and software units. Literature study reveals that many studies focused on green hardware; however, limited efforts were made in the greenness of software products. Green software products are necessary to solve the issues and problems related to the long-term use of software, especially from a sustainability perspective. Without a proper mechanism for measuring the greenness of a particular software product executed in a specific environment, the mentioned benefits will not be attained. Currently, there are not enough works to address this problem, and the green status of software products is uncertain and unsure. This paper aims to identify the green measurements based on sustainable dimensions in a software product. The second objective is to reveal the relationships between the elements and measurements through empirical study. The study is conducted in two phases. The first phase is the theoretical phase, where the main components, measurements and practices that influence the sustainability of a software product are identified. The second phase is the empirical study that involved 103 respondents in Malaysia investigating current practices of green software in the industrial environment and further identifying the main sustainability dimensions and measurements and their impact on achieving green software products. This study has revealed seven green measurements of software product: Productivity, Usability, Cost Reduction, Employee Support, Energy Efficiency, Resource Efficiency and Tool Support. The relationships are statistically significant, with a significance level of less than 0.01 (p = 0.000). Thus, the hypothesised relationships were all accepted. The contributions of this study revolve around the research perspectives of the measurements to attain a green software product.     

Emergency egress for the elderly in care home fire situations

Practitioners are continuing to develop egress modelling software for the design of the built environment. These models require data about human behaviour and factors for calibration, validation and verification. This study aims to address the specific data and knowledge gap: emergency egress of the elderly. Such data are difficult to collect given privacy and consent concerns, with strong relationships generally being required between residences and researchers. Through the observation of nine fire drills at six Canadian long-term care (LTC) and retirement homes, specific evacuation actions and behaviour were observed for 37 staff members and information about the evacuation of 56 residents was collected. These drills demonstrated that emergency egress in LTC and retirement homes is highly staff dependent with 72% of residents recorded requiring full assistance at all stages of movement in evacuation, and that the type of announced/unannounced drill and level of resident care will affect the type of data collected. The development of travel speed and pre-movement is discussed subject to limitation with qualitative behavioural insights of residents that were observed. This study provides valuable methodological discussion on how to conduct behavioural studies in similar highly restricted research environments. Specific attention is given to understanding the considerations that must be made when using fire drills as data sources, and the impact that these can have on using such data for modelling. This study may inform the initial setup and programming of evacuation models from an actions and behavioural perspectives of staff members and residents.     

Event-triggered variable horizon Supervisory Predictive control of hybrid power plants

The supervision of a hybrid power plant, including solar panels, a gas microturbine and a storage unit operating under varying solar power profiles is considered. The Economic Supervisory Predictive controller assigns the power references to the controlled subsystems of the hybrid cell using a financial criterion. A prediction of the renewable sources power is embedded into the supervisor. Results deteriorate when the solar power is unsteady, owing to the inaccuracy of the predictions for a long-range horizon of 10 s. The receding horizon is switched between an upper and a lower value according to the amplitude of the solar power trend. Theoretical results show the relevance of horizon switching, according to a tradeoff between performance and prediction accuracy. Experimental results, obtained in a Hardware In the Loop (HIL) framework, show the relevance of the variable horizon approach. Power amplifiers allow us to simulate virtual components, such as a gas microturbine, and to blend their powers with that of real devices (storage unit, real solar panels). In this case, fuel savings, reaching 15%, obtained under unsteady operating conditions lead to a better overall performance of the hybrid cell. The overall savings obtained in the experiments amount to 12%.     

An industrial case study on variability handling in large enterprise software systems

ContextEnterprise software systems (e.g., enterprise resource planning software) are often deployed in different contexts (e.g., different organizations or different business units or branches of one organization). However, even though organizations, business units or branches have the same or similar business goals, they may differ in how they achieve these goals. Thus, many enterprise software systems are subject to variability and adapted depending on the context in which they are used.ObjectiveOur goal is to provide a snapshot of variability in large scale enterprise software systems. We aim at understanding the types of variability that occur in large industrial enterprise software systems. Furthermore, we aim at identifying how variability is handled in such systems.MethodWe performed an exploratory case study in two large software organizations, involving two large enterprise software systems. Data were collected through interviews and document analysis. Data were analyzed following a grounded theory approach.ResultsWe identified seven types of variability (e.g., functionality, infrastructure) and eight mechanisms to handle variability (e.g., add-ons, code switches).ConclusionsWe provide generic types for classifying variability in enterprise software systems, and reusable mechanisms for handling such variability. Some variability types and handling mechanisms for enterprise software systems found in the real world extend existing concepts and theories. Others confirm findings from previous research literature on variability in software in general and are therefore not specific to enterprise software systems. Our findings also offer a theoretical foundation for describing variability handling in practice. Future work needs to provide more evaluations of the theoretical foundations, and refine variability handling mechanisms into more detailed practices.     

Control of the particle microstructure during the synthesis of bulk-polymerized transparent methacrylate-acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene resin

A series of methacrylate-acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (MABS) resins was prepared using bulk polymerization. The polarity of the continuous phase and the compatibility of two phases were changed by adjusting the methyl methacrylate (MMA) content, choosing values that were close to styrene-butadiene rubber solubility value. The possibility of controlling the microstructure of the MABS resin by changing the polarity of the components and the compatibility of two phases was assessed. The dynamic mechanical analysis shows that the compatibility of two phases varies with the MMA content. The morphological analysis shows that increasing MMA contents results in a gradual decrease in the sub-inclusion structure with a network skeleton of rubber particles, and that all the particles become solid rubber when the MMA content reaches 75%. The sub-inclusion structure reappears but does not have a network skeleton when the MMA content is 90%. The impact strength and morphological analysis indicate that the solid rubber particles and the sub-inclusion structure with a network skeleton provide excellent toughness, while the sub-inclusion structure without a network skeleton does not. In contrast, the transmittance of the ABS resin first increased and then decreased with increasing MMA content.     

The concept of smartness in cyber–physical systems and connection to urban environment

The next-generation systems are expected to be largely cyber–physical systems (CPSs) that autonomously control physical processes, through sensors and actuators typically in real-time feedback and cooperative control loops distributed among physical and cyber environments. The rapid technological advancements enhance the smartness of these CPSs, pushing their boundaries of performance and efficiency by embedding new information and communication technologies. However, to what extent CPSs should be smarter so that they do not compromise safety and security of safety critical systems? is an open research question. Towards this goal, the purpose of this study is to establish a grounded theory to analyse what makes these systems smart? and eventually, how to find a balance between smartness and safety risks? In this precinct, this article aims to develop a conceptual framework, define the dimensions and derive the characteristics that make CPSs smart. The proposed approach combines an automated informetric and systematic analysis of literature pertinent to the topic of smartness across anthropology, science, engineering and technology. The analysis of a case study building and the discussions presented herein support the connection between the existing understanding of CPSs and smartness offered by the building design approach in urban environment.     

Experimental Treatment with Favipiravir for COVID-19: An Open-Label Control Study

There is currently an outbreak of respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus. The virus has been named severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the disease it causes has been named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). More than 16% of patients developed acute respiratory distress syndrome, and the fatality ratio was 1%–2%. No specific treatment has been reported. Herein, we examined the effects of favipiravir (FPV) versus lopinavir (LPV)/ritonavir (RTV) for the treatment of COVID-19. Patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 who received oral FPV (Day 1: 1600 mg twice daily; Days 2–14: 600 mg twice daily) plus interferon (IFN)-α by aerosol inhalation (5 million international unit (IU) twice daily) were included in the FPV arm of this study, whereas patients who were treated with LPV/RTV (Days 1–14: 400 mg/100 mg twice daily) plus IFN-α by aerosol inhalation (5 million IU twice daily) were included in the control arm. Changes in chest computed tomography (CT), viral clearance, and drug safety were compared between the two groups. For the 35 patients enrolled in the FPV arm and the 45 patients in the control arm, all baseline characteristics were comparable between the two arms. A shorter viral clearance median time was found for the FPV arm versus the control arm (4 d (interquartile range (IQR): 2.5–9) versus 11 d (IQR: 8–13), P < 0.001). The FPV arm also showed significant improvement in chest CT compared with the control arm, with an improvement rate of 91.43% versus 62.22% (P = 0.004). After adjustment for potential confounders, the FPV arm also showed a significantly higher improvement rate in chest CT. Multivariable Cox regression showed that FPV was independently associated with faster viral clearance. In addition, fewer adverse events were found in the FPV arm than in the control arm. In this open-label before-after controlled study, FPV showed better therapeutic responses on COVID-19 in terms of disease progression and viral clearance. These preliminary clinical results provide useful information of treatments for SARS-CoV-2 infection.     

矿山地质环境恢复治理技术方法研究

自工业革命以来人类社会的发展和经济的建设就离不开对矿产资源的使用。我国自改革开放以来,经济得到了前所未有的飞速发展,人民的生活水平日益提高,但经济高速发展的背后,存在着对矿产资源过度开采和使用的问题。矿产资源的不合理开采和使用对原有的自然环境造成了严重的破坏,为了改善此现状,对矿山地质环境的恢复治理技术的研究就至关重要。本文就矿山地质恢复治理的意义进行阐述,进一步对其方法进行探究,最终提出有关的措施和方法。