基于VMD和BSA-KELM的高陡边坡位移预测模型研究

边坡位移的时间序列曲线存在复杂的非线性特性,传统的预测模型精度不足以满足预测要求。为此提出了基于变分模态分解的鸟群优化-核极限学习机的预测模型,并用于河北省某水泥厂的边坡位移预测。该方法首先采用VMD把边坡位移序列分解为一系列的有限带宽的子序列,再对各子序列分别采用相空间重构并用核极限学习机预测,采用鸟群算法优化相空间重构的嵌入维度和KELM中惩罚系数和核参数三个数值,以取得最优预测模型。最后将各个子序列预测值叠加,得到边坡位移的最终预测值。结果表明：和KELM、BSA-KELM、EEMD-BSA-KELM模型相比,基于VMD的BSA-KELM预测精度更高,为边坡位移的预测提供一种有效的方法。     

A hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average control chart for process monitoring: Discussion

The sensitivity of a monitoring scheme depends on many factors including the variance of the charting statistic which is very important in the computation of the control limits. This paper discusses the computation of the variance of the recently proposed hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average (HHWMA) $\overline{X}$ scheme which was based on an incorrect assumption. The correct variance is used to evaluate the run-length characteristics of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme. It is observed that the incorrect variance has a significant impact on the sensitivity (or performance) of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme.     

Large domain-wall currents in epitaxial Au/BiFeO3/SrRuO3 thin-film capacitors with modulated oxygen vacancy and wall densities

Large domain wall (DW) conductivity in an insulating ferroelectric plays an important role in the future nanosensors and nonvolatile memories. However, the wall current was usually too small to drive high-speed memory circuits and other agile nanodevices requiring high output-powers. Here, a large domain-wall current of 67.8 μA in a high on/off ratio of ~4460 was observed in an epitaxial Au/BiFeO₃/SrRuO₃ thin-film capacitor with the minimized oxygen vacancy concentration. The studies from read current-write voltage hysteresis loops and piezo-response force microscope images consistently showed remaining of partially unswitched domains after application of an opposite poling voltage that increased domain wall density and wall current greatly. A theoretical model was proposed to explain the large wall current. According to this model, the domain reversal occurs with the appearance of head-to-head and tail-to-tail 180° domain walls (DWs), resulting in the formation of highly conductive wall paths. As the applied voltage increased, the domain-wall number increased to enhance the on-state current, in agreement with the measurements of current-voltage curves. This work paves a way to modulate DW currents within epitaxial Au/BiFeO₃/SrRuO₃ thin-film capacitors through the optimization of both oxygen vacancy and domain wall densities to achieve large output powers of modern domain-wall nanodevices.     

Farmers' preferences for adopting on-farm concentration of raw milk: Results from a discrete choice experiment in Germany

Milk concentrates are used in the manufacturing of dairy products such as yogurt and cheese or are processed into milk powder. Processes for the nonthermal separation of water and valuable milk ingredients are becoming increasingly widespread at farm level. The technical barriers to using farm-manufactured milk concentrate in dairies are minimal, hence the suspicion that the practice of on-farm raw milk concentration is still fairly uncommon for economic reasons. This study, therefore, set out to investigate farmers' potential willingness to adopt a raw milk concentration plant. The empirical analysis was based on discrete choice experiments with 75 German dairy farmers to identify preferences and the possible adoption of on-farm raw milk concentration. The results showed that, in particular, farmers who deemed the current milk price to be insufficient viewed on-farm concentration using membrane technology as an option for diversifying their milk sales. We found no indication that adoption would be impeded by a lack of trustworthy information on milk processing technologies or capital.     

Event-triggered variable horizon Supervisory Predictive control of hybrid power plants

The supervision of a hybrid power plant, including solar panels, a gas microturbine and a storage unit operating under varying solar power profiles is considered. The Economic Supervisory Predictive controller assigns the power references to the controlled subsystems of the hybrid cell using a financial criterion. A prediction of the renewable sources power is embedded into the supervisor. Results deteriorate when the solar power is unsteady, owing to the inaccuracy of the predictions for a long-range horizon of 10 s. The receding horizon is switched between an upper and a lower value according to the amplitude of the solar power trend. Theoretical results show the relevance of horizon switching, according to a tradeoff between performance and prediction accuracy. Experimental results, obtained in a Hardware In the Loop (HIL) framework, show the relevance of the variable horizon approach. Power amplifiers allow us to simulate virtual components, such as a gas microturbine, and to blend their powers with that of real devices (storage unit, real solar panels). In this case, fuel savings, reaching 15%, obtained under unsteady operating conditions lead to a better overall performance of the hybrid cell. The overall savings obtained in the experiments amount to 12%.     

Control of the particle microstructure during the synthesis of bulk-polymerized transparent methacrylate-acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene resin

A series of methacrylate-acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (MABS) resins was prepared using bulk polymerization. The polarity of the continuous phase and the compatibility of two phases were changed by adjusting the methyl methacrylate (MMA) content, choosing values that were close to styrene-butadiene rubber solubility value. The possibility of controlling the microstructure of the MABS resin by changing the polarity of the components and the compatibility of two phases was assessed. The dynamic mechanical analysis shows that the compatibility of two phases varies with the MMA content. The morphological analysis shows that increasing MMA contents results in a gradual decrease in the sub-inclusion structure with a network skeleton of rubber particles, and that all the particles become solid rubber when the MMA content reaches 75%. The sub-inclusion structure reappears but does not have a network skeleton when the MMA content is 90%. The impact strength and morphological analysis indicate that the solid rubber particles and the sub-inclusion structure with a network skeleton provide excellent toughness, while the sub-inclusion structure without a network skeleton does not. In contrast, the transmittance of the ABS resin first increased and then decreased with increasing MMA content.     

Stress-deformable state of isotropic double curved shell with internal cracks and a circular hole

This work is devoted to the stress–strain state of isotropic double curved shell with defect system. The construction is weakened by two non-through thickness (internal) cracks of different length and by a circular hole located between cracks. In this study we use the line-spring model. Within the framework of this model cracks are modeled as mathematical cuts of shell’s middle surface. This leads to a two-dimensional problem. The problem is reduced to a system of eight boundary integral equations. To ensure the uniqueness of solution an additional equation is added. In the numerical solution of the problem special quadrature formulas for singular integrals of Cauchy type and the finite difference method are applied. The influence of defects on each other for double curved shell has been investigated. The given theoretical results can be used for the calculation of structural elements with holes, cracks on the strength and fracture toughness in various branches of engineering.     

大口径光学元件装夹转运结构设计及分析

为了实现大口径光学元件的安全装夹、转运,通过光学元件开槽与不开槽两种装夹方式的分析,得出开槽夹紧转运方式将带来微裂纹、应力集中、成本高等缺陷,提出了利用摩擦力克服光学零件的重力和惯性力的低应力装夹转运方案。通过对光学元件低应力夹紧结构设计,并利用有限元分析方法,得到不开槽装夹方式下,光学元件的最大主应力为1.11 MPa,最大切应力为0.73 MPa,远低于光学元件破坏的强度极限,且受力均匀,无应力集中现象。     

探讨加强质量监督管理提高电网安全水平

电网的安全水平主要取决于其使用产品的质量是否过关。如果产品的质量较好，则能建造出优质的电网，电网的安全水平便会随之提高。因此，应加强对产品质量的监督管理，从而提高电网的安全水平。我们可建立质量监督管理系统，及时抽检出质量不过关的产品，从而消除电网运行过程中潜在的安全隐患。