基于VMD和BSA-KELM的高陡边坡位移预测模型研究

边坡位移的时间序列曲线存在复杂的非线性特性,传统的预测模型精度不足以满足预测要求。为此提出了基于变分模态分解的鸟群优化-核极限学习机的预测模型,并用于河北省某水泥厂的边坡位移预测。该方法首先采用VMD把边坡位移序列分解为一系列的有限带宽的子序列,再对各子序列分别采用相空间重构并用核极限学习机预测,采用鸟群算法优化相空间重构的嵌入维度和KELM中惩罚系数和核参数三个数值,以取得最优预测模型。最后将各个子序列预测值叠加,得到边坡位移的最终预测值。结果表明：和KELM、BSA-KELM、EEMD-BSA-KELM模型相比,基于VMD的BSA-KELM预测精度更高,为边坡位移的预测提供一种有效的方法。     

A hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average control chart for process monitoring: Discussion

The sensitivity of a monitoring scheme depends on many factors including the variance of the charting statistic which is very important in the computation of the control limits. This paper discusses the computation of the variance of the recently proposed hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average (HHWMA) $\overline{X}$ scheme which was based on an incorrect assumption. The correct variance is used to evaluate the run-length characteristics of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme. It is observed that the incorrect variance has a significant impact on the sensitivity (or performance) of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme.     

Sirtuins as Important Factors in Pathological States and the Role of Their Molecular Activity Modulators

Sirtuins (SIRTs), enzymes from the family of NAD⁺-dependent histone deacetylases, play an important role in the functioning of the body at the cellular level and participate in many biochemical processes. The multi-directionality of SIRTs encourages scientists to undertake research aimed at understanding the mechanisms of their action and the influence that SIRTs have on the organism. At the same time, new substances are constantly being sought that can modulate the action of SIRTs. Extensive research on the expression of SIRTs in various pathological conditions suggests that regulation of their activity may have positive results in supporting the treatment of certain metabolic, neurodegenerative or cancer diseases or this connected with oxidative stress. Due to such a wide spectrum of activity, SIRTs may also be a prognostic markers of selected pathological conditions and prove helpful in assessing their progression, especially by modulating their activity. The article presents and discusses the activating or inhibiting impact of individual SIRTs modulators. The review also gathered selected currently available information on the expression of SIRTs in individual disease cases as well as the biological role that SIRTs play in the human organism, also in connection with oxidative stress condition, taking into account the progress of knowledge about SIRTs over the years, with particular reference to the latest research results.     

Effects of upholstery materials on the burning behavior of real‐scale residential upholstered furniture mock‐ups

Fire spread and growth on real‐scale four cushion mock‐ups of residential upholstered furniture (RUF) were investigated with the goal of identifying whether changes in five classes of materials (barrier, flexible polyurethane foam, polyester fiber wrap, upholstery fabric, and sewing thread), referred to as factors, resulted in statistically significant changes in burning behavior. A fractional factorial experimental design plus practical considerations yielded a test matrix with 20 material combinations. Experiments were repeated a minimum of two times. Measurements included fire spread rates derived from video recordings and heat release rates (HRRs). A total of 13 experimental parameters (3 based on the videos and 10 on the HRR results), referred to as responses, characterized the measurements. Statistical analyses based on Main Effects Plots (main effects) and Block Plots (main effects and factor interactions) were used. The results showed that three of the factors resulted in statistically significant effects on varying numbers of the 13 responses. The Barrier and Fabric factors had the strongest main effects with roughly comparable magnitudes. Foam was statistically significant for fewer of the responses and its overall strength was weaker than for Barrier and Fabric. No statistically significant main effects were identified for Wrap or Thread. Multiple two‐term interactions between factors were identified as being statistically significant. The Barrier*Fabric interaction resulted in the highest number of and strongest statistically significant effects. The existence of two‐term interactions means that it will be necessary to consider their effects in approaches designed to predict the burning behavior of RUF.     

Maskless Preparation of Spatially-Resolved Plasmonic Nanoparticles on Polydimethylsiloxane via In Situ Fluoride-Assisted Synthesis

Here, a fluoride-assisted route for the controlled in-situ synthesis of metal nanoparticles (NPs) (i.e., AgNPs, AuNPs) on polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) is reported. The size and coverage of the NPs on the PDMS surface are modulated with time and over space during the synthetic process, leveraging the improved yield (10×) and faster kinetics (100×) of NP formation in the presence of F⁻ ions, compared to fluoride-free approaches. This enables the maskless preparation of both linear and step gradients and patterns of NPs in 1D and 2D on the PDMS surface. As an application in flexible plasmonics/photonics, continuous and step-wise spatial modulations of the plasmonic features of PDMS slabs with 1D and 2D AgNP gradients on the surface are demonstrated. An excellent spatially resolved tuning of key optical parameters, namely, optical density from zero to 5 and extinction ratio up to 100 dB, is achieved with AgNP gradients prepared in AgF solution for 12 minutes; the performance are comparable to those of commercial dielectric/interference filters. When used as a rejection filter in optical fluorescence microscopy, the AgNP-PDMS slabs are able to reject the excitation laser at 405 nm and retain the green fluorescence of microbeads (100 µm) used as test cases.     

Fire safe,sustainable loose furnishing

The aim of this exploratory study has been to investigate the fire properties and environmental aspects of different upholstery material combinations, mainly for domestic applications. An analysis of the sustainability and circularity of selected textiles, along with lifecycle assessment, is used to qualitatively evaluate materials from an environmental perspective. The cone calorimeter was the primary tool used to screen 20 different material combinations from a fire performance perspective. It was found that textile covers of conventional fibres such as wool, cotton and polyester, can be improved by blending them with fire resistant speciality fibres. A new three‐dimensional web structure has been examined as an alternative padding material, showing preliminary promising fire properties with regard to ignition time, heat release rates and smoke production.     

Emergency egress for the elderly in care home fire situations

Practitioners are continuing to develop egress modelling software for the design of the built environment. These models require data about human behaviour and factors for calibration, validation and verification. This study aims to address the specific data and knowledge gap: emergency egress of the elderly. Such data are difficult to collect given privacy and consent concerns, with strong relationships generally being required between residences and researchers. Through the observation of nine fire drills at six Canadian long-term care (LTC) and retirement homes, specific evacuation actions and behaviour were observed for 37 staff members and information about the evacuation of 56 residents was collected. These drills demonstrated that emergency egress in LTC and retirement homes is highly staff dependent with 72% of residents recorded requiring full assistance at all stages of movement in evacuation, and that the type of announced/unannounced drill and level of resident care will affect the type of data collected. The development of travel speed and pre-movement is discussed subject to limitation with qualitative behavioural insights of residents that were observed. This study provides valuable methodological discussion on how to conduct behavioural studies in similar highly restricted research environments. Specific attention is given to understanding the considerations that must be made when using fire drills as data sources, and the impact that these can have on using such data for modelling. This study may inform the initial setup and programming of evacuation models from an actions and behavioural perspectives of staff members and residents.     

Event-triggered variable horizon Supervisory Predictive control of hybrid power plants

The supervision of a hybrid power plant, including solar panels, a gas microturbine and a storage unit operating under varying solar power profiles is considered. The Economic Supervisory Predictive controller assigns the power references to the controlled subsystems of the hybrid cell using a financial criterion. A prediction of the renewable sources power is embedded into the supervisor. Results deteriorate when the solar power is unsteady, owing to the inaccuracy of the predictions for a long-range horizon of 10 s. The receding horizon is switched between an upper and a lower value according to the amplitude of the solar power trend. Theoretical results show the relevance of horizon switching, according to a tradeoff between performance and prediction accuracy. Experimental results, obtained in a Hardware In the Loop (HIL) framework, show the relevance of the variable horizon approach. Power amplifiers allow us to simulate virtual components, such as a gas microturbine, and to blend their powers with that of real devices (storage unit, real solar panels). In this case, fuel savings, reaching 15%, obtained under unsteady operating conditions lead to a better overall performance of the hybrid cell. The overall savings obtained in the experiments amount to 12%.