基于VMD和BSA-KELM的高陡边坡位移预测模型研究

边坡位移的时间序列曲线存在复杂的非线性特性,传统的预测模型精度不足以满足预测要求。为此提出了基于变分模态分解的鸟群优化-核极限学习机的预测模型,并用于河北省某水泥厂的边坡位移预测。该方法首先采用VMD把边坡位移序列分解为一系列的有限带宽的子序列,再对各子序列分别采用相空间重构并用核极限学习机预测,采用鸟群算法优化相空间重构的嵌入维度和KELM中惩罚系数和核参数三个数值,以取得最优预测模型。最后将各个子序列预测值叠加,得到边坡位移的最终预测值。结果表明：和KELM、BSA-KELM、EEMD-BSA-KELM模型相比,基于VMD的BSA-KELM预测精度更高,为边坡位移的预测提供一种有效的方法。     

25%小偏置碰撞策略及测试评估研究

随着汽车事故的增加,且小重叠碰撞事故死亡率居高不下,小偏置碰撞试验逐渐成为焦点。基于IIHS公布的最新车辆碰撞试验结果,统计超过100余款不同类型的25%小偏置碰撞车辆,建立碰撞转角与碰撞区域的数学模型,将25%小偏置碰撞归结为三种不同的碰撞策略,分别是吸能策略、掠过策略和掠过与吸能策略;并进行试验验证,对三种策略的优缺点进行分析。结果表明,小偏置碰撞试验可运用合理的碰撞策略达到法规要求,对25%小偏置碰撞试验具有一定的参考价值。     

A hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average control chart for process monitoring: Discussion

The sensitivity of a monitoring scheme depends on many factors including the variance of the charting statistic which is very important in the computation of the control limits. This paper discusses the computation of the variance of the recently proposed hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average (HHWMA) $\overline{X}$ scheme which was based on an incorrect assumption. The correct variance is used to evaluate the run-length characteristics of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme. It is observed that the incorrect variance has a significant impact on the sensitivity (or performance) of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme.     

Cold and wet: Diatoms dominate the phytoplankton community during a year of anomalous weather in a Great Lakes estuary

As sentinels of climate change and other anthropogenic forces, freshwater lakes are experiencing ecosystem disruptions at every level of the food web, beginning with the phytoplankton, a highly responsive group of organisms. Most studies regarding the effects of climate change on phytoplankton focus on a potential scenario in which temperatures continuously increase and droughts intersperse heavy precipitation events. Like much of the conterminous United States in 2019, the Muskegon River watershed (Michigan, USA) experienced record-breaking rainfall accompanied by unusually cool temperatures, affording an opportunity to explore how an alternate potential climate scenario may affect phytoplankton. We conducted biweekly sampling of environmental variables and phytoplankton in Muskegon Lake, a Great Lakes Area of Concern that connects to Lake Michigan. We compared environmental variables in 2019 to the previous eight years using long-term data from the Muskegon Lake Observatory buoy, and annual monitoring excursions provided historical phytoplankton data. Under cold and wet conditions, diatoms were the single dominant division throughout the entire growth season – an unprecedented scenario in Muskegon Lake. In 10 of the 13 biweekly sampling days in 2019, diatoms comprised over 75% of the phytoplankton community in the lake by count, indicating that the spring diatom bloom persisted through the fall. Additionally, phytoplankton seasonal succession and abundance patterns typically seen in this lake were absent. In a world experiencing reduced predictability, increased variability, and regional climate anomalies, studying periods of extreme weather events may offer insight into how natural systems will be affected and respond under future climate scenarios.     

Sputtered Fe1·5CoNi0.5 coating: An improved protective coating for SOFC interconnect applications

In an attempt to optimize the properties of FeCoNi coating for planar solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) interconnect application, the coating composition is modified by increasing the ratio of Fe/Ni. An Fe_1·5CoNi_0.5 (Fe:Co:Ni = 1.5:1:0.5, atomic ratio) metallic coating is fabricated on SUS 430 stainless steel by magnetron sputtering, followed by oxidation in air at 800°C. The Fe_1·5CoNi_0.5 coating is thermally converted to (Fe,Co,Ni)₃O₄ and (Fe,Co,Mn,Ni)₃O₄ without (Ni,Co)O particles. After oxidation for 1680 h, no further migration of Cr is detected in the thermally converted coating region. A low oxidation rate of 5.9 × 10^?14 g² cm^?4 s^?1 and area specific resistance of 12.64 mΩ·cm² is obtained for Fe_1·5CoNi_0.5 coated steels.     

Event-triggered variable horizon Supervisory Predictive control of hybrid power plants

The supervision of a hybrid power plant, including solar panels, a gas microturbine and a storage unit operating under varying solar power profiles is considered. The Economic Supervisory Predictive controller assigns the power references to the controlled subsystems of the hybrid cell using a financial criterion. A prediction of the renewable sources power is embedded into the supervisor. Results deteriorate when the solar power is unsteady, owing to the inaccuracy of the predictions for a long-range horizon of 10 s. The receding horizon is switched between an upper and a lower value according to the amplitude of the solar power trend. Theoretical results show the relevance of horizon switching, according to a tradeoff between performance and prediction accuracy. Experimental results, obtained in a Hardware In the Loop (HIL) framework, show the relevance of the variable horizon approach. Power amplifiers allow us to simulate virtual components, such as a gas microturbine, and to blend their powers with that of real devices (storage unit, real solar panels). In this case, fuel savings, reaching 15%, obtained under unsteady operating conditions lead to a better overall performance of the hybrid cell. The overall savings obtained in the experiments amount to 12%.     

Control of the particle microstructure during the synthesis of bulk-polymerized transparent methacrylate-acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene resin

A series of methacrylate-acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (MABS) resins was prepared using bulk polymerization. The polarity of the continuous phase and the compatibility of two phases were changed by adjusting the methyl methacrylate (MMA) content, choosing values that were close to styrene-butadiene rubber solubility value. The possibility of controlling the microstructure of the MABS resin by changing the polarity of the components and the compatibility of two phases was assessed. The dynamic mechanical analysis shows that the compatibility of two phases varies with the MMA content. The morphological analysis shows that increasing MMA contents results in a gradual decrease in the sub-inclusion structure with a network skeleton of rubber particles, and that all the particles become solid rubber when the MMA content reaches 75%. The sub-inclusion structure reappears but does not have a network skeleton when the MMA content is 90%. The impact strength and morphological analysis indicate that the solid rubber particles and the sub-inclusion structure with a network skeleton provide excellent toughness, while the sub-inclusion structure without a network skeleton does not. In contrast, the transmittance of the ABS resin first increased and then decreased with increasing MMA content.     

澳门融入粤港澳大湾区世界机场群路向研究

粤港澳大湾区世界城市群与世界机场群相伴而生、联动发展.建设世界级机场群，需要5大机场错位发展和良性互动.澳门国际机场是澳门融入粤港澳大湾区重要一极，但机场发展存在与澳门定位、香港珠海空域空运矛盾、澳门土地和环境现状等相关的问题.因此，澳门国际机场今后发展需在葡语国家航线、珠澳密切合作、公务机产业方面努力实现跨越式发展.然而，澳门国际机场改扩建问题争议不断，本文就原址扩建、填海区新建、飞地黄茅岛新建3种模式进行比较分析，探索符合澳门长远利益之方案.