基于VMD和BSA-KELM的高陡边坡位移预测模型研究

边坡位移的时间序列曲线存在复杂的非线性特性,传统的预测模型精度不足以满足预测要求。为此提出了基于变分模态分解的鸟群优化-核极限学习机的预测模型,并用于河北省某水泥厂的边坡位移预测。该方法首先采用VMD把边坡位移序列分解为一系列的有限带宽的子序列,再对各子序列分别采用相空间重构并用核极限学习机预测,采用鸟群算法优化相空间重构的嵌入维度和KELM中惩罚系数和核参数三个数值,以取得最优预测模型。最后将各个子序列预测值叠加,得到边坡位移的最终预测值。结果表明：和KELM、BSA-KELM、EEMD-BSA-KELM模型相比,基于VMD的BSA-KELM预测精度更高,为边坡位移的预测提供一种有效的方法。     

A hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average control chart for process monitoring: Discussion

The sensitivity of a monitoring scheme depends on many factors including the variance of the charting statistic which is very important in the computation of the control limits. This paper discusses the computation of the variance of the recently proposed hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average (HHWMA) $\overline{X}$ scheme which was based on an incorrect assumption. The correct variance is used to evaluate the run-length characteristics of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme. It is observed that the incorrect variance has a significant impact on the sensitivity (or performance) of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme.     

Description of the thermodynamic properties and fluid-phase behavior of aqueous solutions of linear,branched, and cyclic amines

The SAFT-γ Mie group-contribution equation of state is used to represent the fluid-phase behavior of aqueous solutions of a variety of linear, branched, and cyclic amines. New group interactions are developed in order to model the mixtures of interest, including the like and unlike interactions between alkyl primary, secondary, and tertiary amine groups (NH₂, NH, N), cyclic secondary and tertiary amine groups (cNH, cN), and cyclic methine-amine groups (cCHNH, cCHN) with water (H₂O). The group-interaction parameters are estimated from appropriate experimental thermodynamic data for pure amines and selected mixtures. By taking advantage of the group-contribution nature of the method, one can describe the fluid-phase behavior of mixtures of molecules comprising those groups over broad ranges of temperature, pressure, and composition. A number of aqueous solutions of amines are studied including linear, branched aliphatic, and cyclic amines. Liquid–liquid equilibria (LLE) bounded by lower critical solution temperatures (LCSTs) have been reported experimentally and are reproduced here with the SAFT-γ Mie approach. The main feature of the approach is the ability not only to represent accurately the experimental data employed in the parameter estimation, but also to predict the vapor–liquid, liquid–liquid, and vapor–liquid–liquid equilibria, and LCSTs with the same set of parameters. Pure compound and binary phase diagrams of diverse types of amines and their aqueous solutions are assessed in order to demonstrate the main features of the thermodynamic and fluid-phase behavior.     

New exact solutions of the Tzitzéica-type equations in non-linear optics using the expa function method

One specific class of non-linear evolution equations, known as the Tzitzéica-type equations, has received great attention from a group of researchers involved in non-linear science. In this article, new exact solutions of the Tzitzéica-type equations arising in non-linear optics, including the Tzitzéica, Dodd–Bullough–Mikhailov and Tzitzéica–Dodd–Bullough equations, are obtained using the exp_a function method. The integration technique actually suggests a useful and reliable method to extract new exact solutions of a wide range of non-linear evolution equations.     

Questioning numerical integration methods for microsphere (and microplane) constitutive equations

In the last few years, more and more complex microsphere models have been proposed to predict the mechanical response of various polymers. Similarly than for microplane models, they consist in deriving a one-dimensional force vs. stretch equation and to integrate it over the unit sphere to obtain a three-dimensional constitutive equation. In this context, the focus of authors is laid on the physics of the one-dimensional relationship, but in most of the case the influence of the integration method on the prediction is not investigated.Here we compare three numerical integration schemes: a classical Gaussian scheme, a method based on a regular geometric meshing of the sphere, and an approach based on spherical harmonics. Depending on the method, the number of integration points may vary from 4 to 983,040! Considering simple quantities, i.e. principal (large) strain invariants, it is shown that the integration method must be carefully chosen. Depending on the quantities retained to described the one-dimensional equation and the required error, the performances of the three methods are discussed. Consequences on stress–strain prediction are illustrated with a directional version of the classical Mooney–Rivlin hyperelastic model. Finally, the paper closes with some advices for the development of new microsphere constitutive equations.     

Exactly satisfying initial conditions neural network models for numerical treatment of first Painlevé equation

In this paper, novel computing approach using three different models of feed-forward artificial neural networks (ANNs) are presented for the solution of initial value problem (IVP) based on first Painlevé equation. These mathematical models of ANNs are developed in an unsupervised manner with capability to satisfy the initial conditions exactly using log-sigmoid, radial basis and tan-sigmoid transfer functions in hidden layers to approximate the solution of the problem. The training of design parameters in each model is performed with sequential quadratic programming technique. The accuracy, convergence and effectiveness of the proposed schemes are evaluated on the basis of the results of statistical analyses through sufficient large number of independent runs with different number of neurons in each model as well. The comparisons of these results of proposed schemes with standard numerical and analytical solutions validate the correctness of the design models.     

Event-triggered variable horizon Supervisory Predictive control of hybrid power plants

The supervision of a hybrid power plant, including solar panels, a gas microturbine and a storage unit operating under varying solar power profiles is considered. The Economic Supervisory Predictive controller assigns the power references to the controlled subsystems of the hybrid cell using a financial criterion. A prediction of the renewable sources power is embedded into the supervisor. Results deteriorate when the solar power is unsteady, owing to the inaccuracy of the predictions for a long-range horizon of 10 s. The receding horizon is switched between an upper and a lower value according to the amplitude of the solar power trend. Theoretical results show the relevance of horizon switching, according to a tradeoff between performance and prediction accuracy. Experimental results, obtained in a Hardware In the Loop (HIL) framework, show the relevance of the variable horizon approach. Power amplifiers allow us to simulate virtual components, such as a gas microturbine, and to blend their powers with that of real devices (storage unit, real solar panels). In this case, fuel savings, reaching 15%, obtained under unsteady operating conditions lead to a better overall performance of the hybrid cell. The overall savings obtained in the experiments amount to 12%.     

Control of the particle microstructure during the synthesis of bulk-polymerized transparent methacrylate-acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene resin

A series of methacrylate-acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (MABS) resins was prepared using bulk polymerization. The polarity of the continuous phase and the compatibility of two phases were changed by adjusting the methyl methacrylate (MMA) content, choosing values that were close to styrene-butadiene rubber solubility value. The possibility of controlling the microstructure of the MABS resin by changing the polarity of the components and the compatibility of two phases was assessed. The dynamic mechanical analysis shows that the compatibility of two phases varies with the MMA content. The morphological analysis shows that increasing MMA contents results in a gradual decrease in the sub-inclusion structure with a network skeleton of rubber particles, and that all the particles become solid rubber when the MMA content reaches 75%. The sub-inclusion structure reappears but does not have a network skeleton when the MMA content is 90%. The impact strength and morphological analysis indicate that the solid rubber particles and the sub-inclusion structure with a network skeleton provide excellent toughness, while the sub-inclusion structure without a network skeleton does not. In contrast, the transmittance of the ABS resin first increased and then decreased with increasing MMA content.