基于VMD和BSA-KELM的高陡边坡位移预测模型研究

边坡位移的时间序列曲线存在复杂的非线性特性,传统的预测模型精度不足以满足预测要求。为此提出了基于变分模态分解的鸟群优化-核极限学习机的预测模型,并用于河北省某水泥厂的边坡位移预测。该方法首先采用VMD把边坡位移序列分解为一系列的有限带宽的子序列,再对各子序列分别采用相空间重构并用核极限学习机预测,采用鸟群算法优化相空间重构的嵌入维度和KELM中惩罚系数和核参数三个数值,以取得最优预测模型。最后将各个子序列预测值叠加,得到边坡位移的最终预测值。结果表明：和KELM、BSA-KELM、EEMD-BSA-KELM模型相比,基于VMD的BSA-KELM预测精度更高,为边坡位移的预测提供一种有效的方法。     

A hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average control chart for process monitoring: Discussion

The sensitivity of a monitoring scheme depends on many factors including the variance of the charting statistic which is very important in the computation of the control limits. This paper discusses the computation of the variance of the recently proposed hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average (HHWMA) $\overline{X}$ scheme which was based on an incorrect assumption. The correct variance is used to evaluate the run-length characteristics of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme. It is observed that the incorrect variance has a significant impact on the sensitivity (or performance) of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme.     

RESERVOIR PROPERTIES OF BARREMIAN – APTIAN URGONIAN LIMESTONES,SE FRANCE,PART 1: INFLUENCE OF STRUCTURAL HISTORY ON POROSITY-PERMEABILITY VARIATIONS

Upper Barremian – Lower Aptian inner platform “Urgonian” limestones in the Mont de Vaucluse region, SE France, consist of alternating metre-scale microporous and tight intervals. This paper focuses on the influence of structural deformation on the reservoir properties of the Urgonian limestone succession in a study area near the town of Rustrel. Petrographic, petrophysical and structural data were recovered from five fully-cored boreholes, from the walls of a 100 m long underground tunnel, and from a 50 m long transect at a nearby outcrop. The data allowed reservoir property variations in the Urgonian limestones to be studied from core to reservoir scale. Eleven Reservoir Rock Types (RRTs) were identified based on petrographic features (texture, grain size), reservoir properties (porosity, permeability), and the frequency of structural discontinuities such as fractures, faults and stylolites. Tight and microporous reservoir rock types were distinguished. Tight reservoir rock types were characterised by early cementation of intergranular pore spaces and by the presence of frequent structural discontinuities. By contrast microporous reservoir rock types contained preserved intragranular microporosity and matrix permeability, but had very few structural discontinuities. Observed vertical alternations of microporous and tight rock types are interpreted to have been controlled by the early diagenesis of the Urgonian carbonates. Deformation associated with regional-scale tectonic phases, including Albian – Cenomanian “Durancian” uplift (∼105 to 96 Ma) and Pyrenean compression (∼55 to 25 Ma), resulted in the modification of the initial petrophysical properties of the Urgonian limestones. An early diagenetic imprint conditioned both the intensity of structural deformations and the associated circulations of diagenetic and meteoric fluids. Evolution of the Reservoir Rock Types is therefore linked both to the depositional conditions and to subsequent phases of structural deformation.     

Event-triggered variable horizon Supervisory Predictive control of hybrid power plants

The supervision of a hybrid power plant, including solar panels, a gas microturbine and a storage unit operating under varying solar power profiles is considered. The Economic Supervisory Predictive controller assigns the power references to the controlled subsystems of the hybrid cell using a financial criterion. A prediction of the renewable sources power is embedded into the supervisor. Results deteriorate when the solar power is unsteady, owing to the inaccuracy of the predictions for a long-range horizon of 10 s. The receding horizon is switched between an upper and a lower value according to the amplitude of the solar power trend. Theoretical results show the relevance of horizon switching, according to a tradeoff between performance and prediction accuracy. Experimental results, obtained in a Hardware In the Loop (HIL) framework, show the relevance of the variable horizon approach. Power amplifiers allow us to simulate virtual components, such as a gas microturbine, and to blend their powers with that of real devices (storage unit, real solar panels). In this case, fuel savings, reaching 15%, obtained under unsteady operating conditions lead to a better overall performance of the hybrid cell. The overall savings obtained in the experiments amount to 12%.     

Hierarchical multi-reservoir optimization modeling for real-world complexity with application to the Three Gorges system

High dimensionality in real-world multi-reservoir systems greatly hinders the application and popularity of evolutionary algorithms, especially for systems with heterogeneous units. An efficient hierarchical optimization framework is presented for search space reduction, determining the best water distributions, not only between cascade reservoirs, but also among different types of hydropower units. The framework is applied to the Three Gorges Project (TGP) system and the results demonstrate that the difficulties of multi-reservoir optimization caused by high dimensionality can be effectively solved by the proposed hierarchical method. For the day studied, power output could be increased by 6.79 GWh using an optimal decision with the same amount of water actually used; while the same amount of power could be generated with 2.59 × 10⁷ m³ less water compared to the historical policy. The methodology proposed is general in that it can be used for other reservoir systems and other types of heterogeneous unit generators.     

Control of the particle microstructure during the synthesis of bulk-polymerized transparent methacrylate-acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene resin

A series of methacrylate-acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (MABS) resins was prepared using bulk polymerization. The polarity of the continuous phase and the compatibility of two phases were changed by adjusting the methyl methacrylate (MMA) content, choosing values that were close to styrene-butadiene rubber solubility value. The possibility of controlling the microstructure of the MABS resin by changing the polarity of the components and the compatibility of two phases was assessed. The dynamic mechanical analysis shows that the compatibility of two phases varies with the MMA content. The morphological analysis shows that increasing MMA contents results in a gradual decrease in the sub-inclusion structure with a network skeleton of rubber particles, and that all the particles become solid rubber when the MMA content reaches 75%. The sub-inclusion structure reappears but does not have a network skeleton when the MMA content is 90%. The impact strength and morphological analysis indicate that the solid rubber particles and the sub-inclusion structure with a network skeleton provide excellent toughness, while the sub-inclusion structure without a network skeleton does not. In contrast, the transmittance of the ABS resin first increased and then decreased with increasing MMA content.     

Household endotoxin reduction in the Louisa Environmental Intervention Project for rural childhood asthma

Endotoxin exacerbates asthma. We designed the Louisa Environmental Intervention Project (LEIP) and assessed its effectiveness in reducing household endotoxin and improving asthma symptoms in rural Iowa children. Asthmatic school children (N = 104 from 89 homes) of Louisa and Keokuk counties in Iowa (aged 5-14 years) were recruited and block-randomized to receive extensive (education + professional cleaning) or educational interventions. Environmental sampling collection and respiratory survey administration were done at baseline and during three follow-up visits. Mixed-model analyses were used to assess the effect of the intervention on endotoxin levels and asthma symptoms in the main analysis and of endotoxin reduction on asthma symptoms in exploratory analysis. In the extensive intervention group, dust endotoxin load was significantly reduced in post-intervention visits. The extensive compared with the educational intervention was associated with significantly decreased dust endotoxin load in farm homes and less frequent nighttime asthma symptoms. In exploratory analysis, dust endotoxin load reduction from baseline was associated with lower total asthma symptoms score (Odds ratio: 0.52, 95% confidence interval: 0.29-0.92). In conclusion, the LEIP intervention reduced household dust endotoxin and improved asthma symptoms. However, endotoxin reductions were not sustained post-intervention by residents.     

川西彭州地区雷口坡组潮坪相薄储层辨识机理研究

川西彭州地区三叠系雷口坡组雷四上亚段潮坪相薄储层识别难度极大。围绕如何从复合地震强反射中区分并识别上、下两套储层面临的地球物理难题,采用先“分”后“合”的研究思路,基于实际地层结构及不同储层叠加样式建立正演模型,利用全波场波动方程正演模拟技术,剖析了不同主频条件下薄储层的地震响应特征,通过波形差异化分析,从复合地震响应中“剥离”出了两套储层所引起的地震响应特征及变化规律,明确了两套储层在不同频带下的地震识别标志和识别方法,为该区强反射界面干扰下两套薄互层储层辨识机理分析及精准预测奠定了基础。基于不同频带下薄储层辨识机理的分析结果,定性预测了薄储层平面展布,提出了深层潮坪相薄储层识别和预测难题的解决方案,为该区地震资料品质评价、面向薄储层的地震采集技术设计、地震资料处理及薄储层预测提供了依据和指导。     

探讨加强质量监督管理提高电网安全水平

电网的安全水平主要取决于其使用产品的质量是否过关。如果产品的质量较好，则能建造出优质的电网，电网的安全水平便会随之提高。因此，应加强对产品质量的监督管理，从而提高电网的安全水平。我们可建立质量监督管理系统，及时抽检出质量不过关的产品，从而消除电网运行过程中潜在的安全隐患。