基于VMD和BSA-KELM的高陡边坡位移预测模型研究

边坡位移的时间序列曲线存在复杂的非线性特性,传统的预测模型精度不足以满足预测要求。为此提出了基于变分模态分解的鸟群优化-核极限学习机的预测模型,并用于河北省某水泥厂的边坡位移预测。该方法首先采用VMD把边坡位移序列分解为一系列的有限带宽的子序列,再对各子序列分别采用相空间重构并用核极限学习机预测,采用鸟群算法优化相空间重构的嵌入维度和KELM中惩罚系数和核参数三个数值,以取得最优预测模型。最后将各个子序列预测值叠加,得到边坡位移的最终预测值。结果表明：和KELM、BSA-KELM、EEMD-BSA-KELM模型相比,基于VMD的BSA-KELM预测精度更高,为边坡位移的预测提供一种有效的方法。     

A hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average control chart for process monitoring: Discussion

The sensitivity of a monitoring scheme depends on many factors including the variance of the charting statistic which is very important in the computation of the control limits. This paper discusses the computation of the variance of the recently proposed hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average (HHWMA) $\overline{X}$ scheme which was based on an incorrect assumption. The correct variance is used to evaluate the run-length characteristics of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme. It is observed that the incorrect variance has a significant impact on the sensitivity (or performance) of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme.     

A strategic roadmap for large-scale green hydrogen demonstration and commercialisation in China: A review and survey analysis

Hydrogen is gaining increased attention from industries and policymakers in China. However, most of the current demonstration projects in the country have relied on conventional energy sources, including industrial byproduct hydrogen and grey hydrogen produced from fossil fuels. Moreover, strategies and policy frameworks leading to a shift to green or low-carbon hydrogen have neither been explored in-depth nor been identified clearly in the context of China. This study aims at bridging such gaps. Roadmapping techniques enhanced by the Delphi method and SWOT analysis are used to survey hydrogen energy experts from government bodies, industries, and academia to achieve basic agreement on strategically enabling large-scale green hydrogen demonstrations followed by commercialisation in China. The outcome of two rounds of surveys showed that experts' opinions converged on a strategic roadmap with three stages of development. The corresponding policies needed in each stage are evaluated and selected to form a systemic framework.     

What Can We Learn from FGF-2 Isoform-Specific Mouse Mutants? Differential Insights into FGF-2 Physiology In Vivo

Fibroblast growth factor 2 (FGF-2), ubiquitously expressed in humans and mice, is functionally involved in cell growth, migration and maturation in vitro and in vivo. Based on the same mRNA, an 18-kilo Dalton (kDa) FGF-2 isoform named FGF-2 low molecular weight (FGF-2LMW) isoform is translated in humans and rodents. Additionally, two larger isoforms weighing 21 and 22 kDa also exist, summarized as the FGF-2 high molecular weight (FGF-2HMW) isoform. Meanwhile, the human FGF-2HMW comprises a 22, 23, 24 and 34 kDa protein. Independent studies verified a specific intracellular localization, mode of action and tissue-specific spatiotemporal expression of the FGF-2 isoforms, increasing the complexity of their physiological and pathophysiological roles. In order to analyze their spectrum of effects, FGF-2LMW knock out (ko) and FGF-2HMWko mice have been generated, as well as mice specifically overexpressing either FGF-2LMW or FGF-2HMW. So far, the development and functionality of the cardiovascular system, bone formation and regeneration as well as their impact on the central nervous system including disease models of neurodegeneration, have been examined. This review provides a summary of the studies characterizing the in vivo effects modulated by the FGF-2 isoforms and, thus, offers a comprehensive overview of its actions in the aforementioned organ systems.     

极限工况下的管网“互联互通”改进方案

在全国天然气管道“主干互联、区域成网”(以下简称“互联互通”)基础格局逐渐形成的背景下,天然气管网规模日益扩大、管道分支和气源增加,并且分布不集中、输送方向可变,使得输气方案更加灵活,可以更好地解决某些地域的供气紧张问题;但受现有站场和设备的限制,暂不能满足某些多线组合极限工况,使得“互联互通”的初衷难以全部实现。为了使得现有的各输气干线在实现“互联互通”之后可以满足更多的多线组合工况,在分析“互联互通”背景下M管网工况变化的基础上,研发了可以进行水力仿真和压气站方案制订的计算软件,并对3种极限工况下的不同输气量情况进行了可行性试算,进而基于试算结果提出了相应的管网改进建议。研究结果表明:(1)经验证,软件计算误差满足要求;(2)在M管道某处增设压气站或在某些输气站场配置压缩机组;(3) M管网改进调整后,可以完成大部分的多线组合极限工况,真正实现“互联互通”的输气方案。结论认为,该研究成果有助于推进全国天然气管网早日实现“互联互通”。     

Event-triggered variable horizon Supervisory Predictive control of hybrid power plants

The supervision of a hybrid power plant, including solar panels, a gas microturbine and a storage unit operating under varying solar power profiles is considered. The Economic Supervisory Predictive controller assigns the power references to the controlled subsystems of the hybrid cell using a financial criterion. A prediction of the renewable sources power is embedded into the supervisor. Results deteriorate when the solar power is unsteady, owing to the inaccuracy of the predictions for a long-range horizon of 10 s. The receding horizon is switched between an upper and a lower value according to the amplitude of the solar power trend. Theoretical results show the relevance of horizon switching, according to a tradeoff between performance and prediction accuracy. Experimental results, obtained in a Hardware In the Loop (HIL) framework, show the relevance of the variable horizon approach. Power amplifiers allow us to simulate virtual components, such as a gas microturbine, and to blend their powers with that of real devices (storage unit, real solar panels). In this case, fuel savings, reaching 15%, obtained under unsteady operating conditions lead to a better overall performance of the hybrid cell. The overall savings obtained in the experiments amount to 12%.     

Sustainability of ride-hailing services in China’s mobility market: A simulation model of socio-technical system transition

As a symbol of sharing economy, ride-hailing services have spread to Asia, where various forms of services have been established according to the existing socio-technical regimes, including legal, policy, and environmental concerns. China, in particular, has accepted ride-hailing services by revising existing institutions. This study analyzes China’s acceptance of ride-hailing services in the socio-technical system context set up for legacy services. Simulation modeling, combined with transition theory and an agent-based model, is used to analyze the data. This study calculates consumer disutility based on mobility market share, reflecting consumer preference, and predicts the sustainability of ride-hailing services. The simulation results conclude that legalization and socio-technical context are of importance for sustainable mobility.     

Control of the particle microstructure during the synthesis of bulk-polymerized transparent methacrylate-acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene resin

A series of methacrylate-acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (MABS) resins was prepared using bulk polymerization. The polarity of the continuous phase and the compatibility of two phases were changed by adjusting the methyl methacrylate (MMA) content, choosing values that were close to styrene-butadiene rubber solubility value. The possibility of controlling the microstructure of the MABS resin by changing the polarity of the components and the compatibility of two phases was assessed. The dynamic mechanical analysis shows that the compatibility of two phases varies with the MMA content. The morphological analysis shows that increasing MMA contents results in a gradual decrease in the sub-inclusion structure with a network skeleton of rubber particles, and that all the particles become solid rubber when the MMA content reaches 75%. The sub-inclusion structure reappears but does not have a network skeleton when the MMA content is 90%. The impact strength and morphological analysis indicate that the solid rubber particles and the sub-inclusion structure with a network skeleton provide excellent toughness, while the sub-inclusion structure without a network skeleton does not. In contrast, the transmittance of the ABS resin first increased and then decreased with increasing MMA content.     

探讨加强质量监督管理提高电网安全水平

电网的安全水平主要取决于其使用产品的质量是否过关。如果产品的质量较好，则能建造出优质的电网，电网的安全水平便会随之提高。因此，应加强对产品质量的监督管理，从而提高电网的安全水平。我们可建立质量监督管理系统，及时抽检出质量不过关的产品，从而消除电网运行过程中潜在的安全隐患。