基于多通道的ICU脑血管疾病死亡风险预测模型

死亡风险预测指根据病人临床体征监测数据来预测未来一段时间的死亡风险。对于ICU病患，通过死亡风险预测可以有针对性地对病人做出临床诊断，以及合理安排有限的医疗资源。基于临床使用的MEWS和Glasgow昏迷评分量表，针对ICU病人临床监测的17项生理参数，提出一种基于多通道的ICU脑血管疾病死亡风险预测模型。引入多通道概念应用于BiLSTM模型，用于突出每个生理参数对死亡风险预测的作用。采用Attention机制用于提高模型预测精度。实验数据来自MIMIC [Ⅲ]数据库，从中提取3?080位脑血管疾病患者的16?260条记录用于此次研究，除了六组超参数实验之外，将所提模型与LSTM、Multichannel-BiLSTM、逻辑回归（logistic regression）和支持向量机（support vector machine, SVM）四种模型进行了对比分析，准确率Accuracy、灵敏度Sensitive、特异性Specificity、AUC-ROC和AUC-PRC作为评价指标，实验结果表明，所提模型性能优于其他模型，AUC值达到94.3%。     

基于VMD和BSA-KELM的高陡边坡位移预测模型研究

边坡位移的时间序列曲线存在复杂的非线性特性,传统的预测模型精度不足以满足预测要求。为此提出了基于变分模态分解的鸟群优化-核极限学习机的预测模型,并用于河北省某水泥厂的边坡位移预测。该方法首先采用VMD把边坡位移序列分解为一系列的有限带宽的子序列,再对各子序列分别采用相空间重构并用核极限学习机预测,采用鸟群算法优化相空间重构的嵌入维度和KELM中惩罚系数和核参数三个数值,以取得最优预测模型。最后将各个子序列预测值叠加,得到边坡位移的最终预测值。结果表明：和KELM、BSA-KELM、EEMD-BSA-KELM模型相比,基于VMD的BSA-KELM预测精度更高,为边坡位移的预测提供一种有效的方法。     

An infinite chain, {[Ni(tn)2]3[Fe(CN)4(μ-CN)2]2}n,a new catalyst for electrochemical-driven water splitting and photochemical-driven hydrogen evolution from water under blue light

A new catalyst for both water reduction and oxidation, based on an infinite chain, {[Ni(tn)₂]₃ [Fe(CN)₄ (μ-CN)₂]₂}_n, is formed by the reaction of NiCl₂, 1,3-propanediamine (tn) and K₃ [Fe(CN)₆]. {[Ni(tn)₂]₃ [Fe(CN)₄ (μ-CN)₂]₂}_n can electro-catalyze hydrogen evolution from a neutral aqueous buffer (pH 7.0) with a turnover frequency (TOF) of 1561 mol of hydrogen per mole of catalyst per hour (H₂/mol catalyst/h) at an overpotential (OP) of 837 mV {[Ni(tn)₂]₃ [Fe(CN)₄ (μ-CN)₂]₂}_n also can electro-catalyze O₂ production from water with a TOF of ～45 mol O₂ (mol cat)^?1s^?1 at an OP of 591 mV. Under blue light (λ = 469 nm), together with CdS nanorods (CdS NRs) as a photosensitizer, and ascorbic acid (H₂A) as a sacrificial electron donor, {[Ni(tn)₂]₃ [Fe(CN)₄ (μ-CN)₂]₂}_n can photo-catalyze hydrogen generation from an aqueous buffer (pH 4.0) with a turnover number (TON) of 11,450 mol H₂ per mole of catalyst (mol of H₂ (mol of cat)^?1) during 10 h irradiation. The average of apparent quantum yield (AQY) is as high as 40.96% during 10 h irradiation. Studies indicate that {[Ni(tn)₂]₃ [Fe(CN)₄ (μ-CN)₂]₂}_n exists in two forms: a cyano-bridged chain ({[Ni(tn)₂]₃ [Fe(CN)₄ (μ-CN)₂]₂}_n) in solid, and a salt ([Ni(tn)₂]₃ [Fe(CN)₆]₂) in aqueous media; Catalytic reaction occurs on the nickel center of [Ni(tn)₂]²⁺, and the introduction of [Fe(CN)₆]^3- can improve the catalytic efficiency of [Ni(tn)₂]²⁺ for H₂ or O₂ generation. We hope these findings can afford a new method for the design of catalysts for both water reduction and oxidation.     

A hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average control chart for process monitoring: Discussion

The sensitivity of a monitoring scheme depends on many factors including the variance of the charting statistic which is very important in the computation of the control limits. This paper discusses the computation of the variance of the recently proposed hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average (HHWMA) $\overline{X}$ scheme which was based on an incorrect assumption. The correct variance is used to evaluate the run-length characteristics of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme. It is observed that the incorrect variance has a significant impact on the sensitivity (or performance) of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme.     

Modeling unaccounted-for gas among residential natural gas consumers using a comprehensive fuzzy cognitive map

Residential natural gas consumption depends on several factors. Available tools and methods to identify, categorize, and validate effective factors have some limitations, making consumption modeling more complex. Once a comprehensive model of effective consumption factors is developed for residential gas consumers, it can predict consumption. In addition, such a model could be used to verify the accuracy of measuring devices in order to reduce unaccounted for gas (UFG). The key factors affecting residential gas consumption were identified based on previous studies and their mutual effects were analyzed using a fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) method. The most significant factors and their effects on natural gas consumption in the residential sector were determined. In this study, for the first time, the expected consumption for each consumer was estimated using a consumption index. Generally, if the estimated consumption is significantly different from the amount recorded by the meter, it could suggest a potential source of UFG. The proposed method was applied to the data collected from the residential gas consumers of a small region in Iran (Dasht-e Arjan region, Fars province), and the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

Effects of upholstery materials on the burning behavior of real‐scale residential upholstered furniture mock‐ups

Fire spread and growth on real‐scale four cushion mock‐ups of residential upholstered furniture (RUF) were investigated with the goal of identifying whether changes in five classes of materials (barrier, flexible polyurethane foam, polyester fiber wrap, upholstery fabric, and sewing thread), referred to as factors, resulted in statistically significant changes in burning behavior. A fractional factorial experimental design plus practical considerations yielded a test matrix with 20 material combinations. Experiments were repeated a minimum of two times. Measurements included fire spread rates derived from video recordings and heat release rates (HRRs). A total of 13 experimental parameters (3 based on the videos and 10 on the HRR results), referred to as responses, characterized the measurements. Statistical analyses based on Main Effects Plots (main effects) and Block Plots (main effects and factor interactions) were used. The results showed that three of the factors resulted in statistically significant effects on varying numbers of the 13 responses. The Barrier and Fabric factors had the strongest main effects with roughly comparable magnitudes. Foam was statistically significant for fewer of the responses and its overall strength was weaker than for Barrier and Fabric. No statistically significant main effects were identified for Wrap or Thread. Multiple two‐term interactions between factors were identified as being statistically significant. The Barrier*Fabric interaction resulted in the highest number of and strongest statistically significant effects. The existence of two‐term interactions means that it will be necessary to consider their effects in approaches designed to predict the burning behavior of RUF.     

Statistical Piezotronic Effect in Nanocrystal Bulk by Anisotropic Geometry Control

Utilizing inner-crystal piezoelectric polarization charges to control carrier transport across a metal-semiconductor or semiconductor–semiconductor interface, piezotronic effect has great potential applications in smart micro/nano-electromechanical system (MEMS/NEMS), human-machine interfacing, and nanorobotics. However, current research on piezotronics has mainly focused on systems with only one or rather limited interfaces. Here, the statistical piezotronic effect is reported in ZnO bulk composited of nanoplatelets, of which the strain/stress-induced piezo-potential at the crystals’ interfaces can effectively gate the electrical transport of ZnO bulk. It is a statistical phenomenon of piezotronic modification of large numbers of interfaces, and the crystal orientation of inner ZnO nanoplatelets strongly influence the transport property of ZnO bulk. With optimum preferred orientation of ZnO nanoplatelets, the bulk exhibits an increased conductivity with decreasing stress at a high pressure range of 200–400 MPa, which has not been observed previously in bulk. A maximum sensitivity of 1.149 µS m⁻¹ MPa⁻¹ and a corresponding gauge factor of 467–589 have been achieved. As a statistical phenomenon of many piezotronic interfaces modulation, the proposed statistical piezotronic effect extends the connotation of piezotronics and promotes its practical applications in intelligent sensing.     

Description of the thermodynamic properties and fluid-phase behavior of aqueous solutions of linear,branched, and cyclic amines

The SAFT-γ Mie group-contribution equation of state is used to represent the fluid-phase behavior of aqueous solutions of a variety of linear, branched, and cyclic amines. New group interactions are developed in order to model the mixtures of interest, including the like and unlike interactions between alkyl primary, secondary, and tertiary amine groups (NH₂, NH, N), cyclic secondary and tertiary amine groups (cNH, cN), and cyclic methine-amine groups (cCHNH, cCHN) with water (H₂O). The group-interaction parameters are estimated from appropriate experimental thermodynamic data for pure amines and selected mixtures. By taking advantage of the group-contribution nature of the method, one can describe the fluid-phase behavior of mixtures of molecules comprising those groups over broad ranges of temperature, pressure, and composition. A number of aqueous solutions of amines are studied including linear, branched aliphatic, and cyclic amines. Liquid–liquid equilibria (LLE) bounded by lower critical solution temperatures (LCSTs) have been reported experimentally and are reproduced here with the SAFT-γ Mie approach. The main feature of the approach is the ability not only to represent accurately the experimental data employed in the parameter estimation, but also to predict the vapor–liquid, liquid–liquid, and vapor–liquid–liquid equilibria, and LCSTs with the same set of parameters. Pure compound and binary phase diagrams of diverse types of amines and their aqueous solutions are assessed in order to demonstrate the main features of the thermodynamic and fluid-phase behavior.     

Exploring design trade-offs for achieving social inclusion in multi-tiered design problems

ABSTRACT

The digital age of the future is ‘not out there to be discovered’, but it needs to be ‘designed’. The design challenge has to address questions about how we want to live, work, and learn (as individuals and as communities) and what we value and appreciate, e.g.: reflecting on quality of life and creating inclusive societies. An overriding design trade-off for the digital age is whether new developments will increase the digital divide or will create more inclusive societies. Sustaining inclusive societies means allowing people of all ages and all abilities to exploit information technologies for personally meaningful activities. Meta-design fosters the design of socio-technical environments that end-user developers can modify and evolve at use time to improve their quality of life and favour their inclusion in the society. This paper describes three case studies in the domain of assistive technologies in which end users themselves cannot act as end-user developers, but someone else (e.g.: a caregiver or a clinician) must accept this role requiring multi-tiered architectures. The design trade-offs and requirements for meta-design identified in the context of the case studies and other researchers’ projects are described to inform the development of future socio-technical environments focused on social inclusion.