基于VMD和BSA-KELM的高陡边坡位移预测模型研究

边坡位移的时间序列曲线存在复杂的非线性特性,传统的预测模型精度不足以满足预测要求。为此提出了基于变分模态分解的鸟群优化-核极限学习机的预测模型,并用于河北省某水泥厂的边坡位移预测。该方法首先采用VMD把边坡位移序列分解为一系列的有限带宽的子序列,再对各子序列分别采用相空间重构并用核极限学习机预测,采用鸟群算法优化相空间重构的嵌入维度和KELM中惩罚系数和核参数三个数值,以取得最优预测模型。最后将各个子序列预测值叠加,得到边坡位移的最终预测值。结果表明：和KELM、BSA-KELM、EEMD-BSA-KELM模型相比,基于VMD的BSA-KELM预测精度更高,为边坡位移的预测提供一种有效的方法。     

A hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average control chart for process monitoring: Discussion

The sensitivity of a monitoring scheme depends on many factors including the variance of the charting statistic which is very important in the computation of the control limits. This paper discusses the computation of the variance of the recently proposed hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average (HHWMA) $\overline{X}$ scheme which was based on an incorrect assumption. The correct variance is used to evaluate the run-length characteristics of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme. It is observed that the incorrect variance has a significant impact on the sensitivity (or performance) of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme.     

Grain orientation evolution and multi-scale interfaces enhanced thermoelectric properties of textured Sr0.9La0.1TiO3 based ceramics

Sr_0.9La_0.1TiO₃ based textured ceramics (SLTT-S3T) with a texture fraction of 0.81 are successfully fabricated by the reactive template grain growth method, in which Sr_0.9La_0.1TiO₃/20 wt%Ti was used as matrix and 10 wt% plate-like Sr₃Ti₂O₇ template seeds were used as templates. The phase transition, microstructure evolution, and the anisotropic thermoelectric properties of SLTT-S3T ceramics were investigated. The results show that the ceramics are mainly composed of Sr_0.9La_0.1TiO₃ and rutile TiO₂ phases. Grains grow with a preferred orientation along (h00). A maximum ZT of 0.26 at 1073 K was achieved in the direction perpendicular to the tape casting direction. The low lattice thermal conductivity of 1.9 W/(m K) at 1073 K was obtained decreased by 34%, 40%, and 38% compared with non-textured, SrTiO₃ and Sr_0.9La_0.1TiO₃ ceramics prepared by the same process, can be attributed to the enhanced phonon scattering by the complex multi-scale boundaries and interfaces. This work provides a strategy of microstructural design for thermoelectric oxides to decrease intrinsic lattice thermal conductivity and further regulate thermoelectric properties via texture engineering.     

总变差模型在书画打印宣纸印刷质量预测中的应用

为了建立适用于书画打印宣纸印刷质量的预测模型,本研究测量了14种书画打印宣纸的粗糙度、白度、不透明度、定量、光泽度和针对宣纸特别设定的帘纹深浅以及帘纹疏密度等表面物理参量,并在相同条件下,使用喷墨打印设备输出并测量印品色度值,利用总变差模型构建去除帘纹色差的测定方法,得到与人眼视觉特征相符的色差。运用GRNN广义回归神经网络结合书画打印宣纸表面物理参量与宣纸去帘纹后的色差值,建立预测模型。结果表明,该模型能够在仅测量书画打印宣纸表面物理参量的情况下,便能较为准确地预测书画打印宣纸印刷质量,为书画打印宣纸印刷前的选纸工作提供指导依据。     

Predicting Prostephanus truncatus (Horn) (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae) populations and associated grain damage in smallholder farmers’ maize stores: A machine learning approach

Prostephanus truncatus is a notorious pest of stored-maize grain and its spread throughout sub-Saharan Africa has led to increased levels of grain storage losses. The current study developed models to predict the level of P. truncatus infestation and associated damage of maize grain in smallholder farmer stores. Data were gathered from grain storage trials conducted in Hwedza and Mbire districts of Zimbabwe and correlated with weather data for each site. Insect counts of P. truncatus and other common stored grain insect pests had a strong correlation with time of year with highest recorded numbers from January to May. Correlation analysis showed insect-generated grain dust from boring and feeding activity to be the best indicator of P. truncatus presence in stores (r = 0.70), while a moderate correlation (r = 0.48) was found between P. truncatus numbers and storage insect parasitic wasps, and grain damage levels significantly correlated with the presence of Tribolium castaneum (r = 0.60). Models were developed for predicting P. truncatus infestation and grain damage using parameter selection algorithms and decision-tree machine learning algorithms with 10-fold cross-validation. The P. truncatus population size prediction model performance was weak (r = 0.43) due to the complicated sampling and detection of the pest and eight-week long period between sampling events. The grain damage prediction model had a stronger correlation coefficient (r = 0.93) and is a good estimator for in situ stored grain insect damage. The models were developed for use under southern African climatic conditions and can be improved with more input data to create more precise models for building decision-support tools for smallholder maize-based production systems.     

Event-triggered variable horizon Supervisory Predictive control of hybrid power plants

The supervision of a hybrid power plant, including solar panels, a gas microturbine and a storage unit operating under varying solar power profiles is considered. The Economic Supervisory Predictive controller assigns the power references to the controlled subsystems of the hybrid cell using a financial criterion. A prediction of the renewable sources power is embedded into the supervisor. Results deteriorate when the solar power is unsteady, owing to the inaccuracy of the predictions for a long-range horizon of 10 s. The receding horizon is switched between an upper and a lower value according to the amplitude of the solar power trend. Theoretical results show the relevance of horizon switching, according to a tradeoff between performance and prediction accuracy. Experimental results, obtained in a Hardware In the Loop (HIL) framework, show the relevance of the variable horizon approach. Power amplifiers allow us to simulate virtual components, such as a gas microturbine, and to blend their powers with that of real devices (storage unit, real solar panels). In this case, fuel savings, reaching 15%, obtained under unsteady operating conditions lead to a better overall performance of the hybrid cell. The overall savings obtained in the experiments amount to 12%.     

Control of the particle microstructure during the synthesis of bulk-polymerized transparent methacrylate-acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene resin

A series of methacrylate-acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (MABS) resins was prepared using bulk polymerization. The polarity of the continuous phase and the compatibility of two phases were changed by adjusting the methyl methacrylate (MMA) content, choosing values that were close to styrene-butadiene rubber solubility value. The possibility of controlling the microstructure of the MABS resin by changing the polarity of the components and the compatibility of two phases was assessed. The dynamic mechanical analysis shows that the compatibility of two phases varies with the MMA content. The morphological analysis shows that increasing MMA contents results in a gradual decrease in the sub-inclusion structure with a network skeleton of rubber particles, and that all the particles become solid rubber when the MMA content reaches 75%. The sub-inclusion structure reappears but does not have a network skeleton when the MMA content is 90%. The impact strength and morphological analysis indicate that the solid rubber particles and the sub-inclusion structure with a network skeleton provide excellent toughness, while the sub-inclusion structure without a network skeleton does not. In contrast, the transmittance of the ABS resin first increased and then decreased with increasing MMA content.     

黑龙江省节水增粮行动(2012—2015年)实施方案

文章通过对黑龙江省高效节水现状,存在问题的分析,结合黑龙江省高效节水发展的支撑能力,阐述黑龙江省节水增粮目标、任务及总体布局,为黑龙江省2012—2015年节水增粮实施提供依据。