基于VMD和BSA-KELM的高陡边坡位移预测模型研究

边坡位移的时间序列曲线存在复杂的非线性特性,传统的预测模型精度不足以满足预测要求。为此提出了基于变分模态分解的鸟群优化-核极限学习机的预测模型,并用于河北省某水泥厂的边坡位移预测。该方法首先采用VMD把边坡位移序列分解为一系列的有限带宽的子序列,再对各子序列分别采用相空间重构并用核极限学习机预测,采用鸟群算法优化相空间重构的嵌入维度和KELM中惩罚系数和核参数三个数值,以取得最优预测模型。最后将各个子序列预测值叠加,得到边坡位移的最终预测值。结果表明：和KELM、BSA-KELM、EEMD-BSA-KELM模型相比,基于VMD的BSA-KELM预测精度更高,为边坡位移的预测提供一种有效的方法。     

A hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average control chart for process monitoring: Discussion

The sensitivity of a monitoring scheme depends on many factors including the variance of the charting statistic which is very important in the computation of the control limits. This paper discusses the computation of the variance of the recently proposed hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average (HHWMA) $\overline{X}$ scheme which was based on an incorrect assumption. The correct variance is used to evaluate the run-length characteristics of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme. It is observed that the incorrect variance has a significant impact on the sensitivity (or performance) of the HHWMA $\overline{X}$ scheme.     

煤炭资源型城市转型模式研究：以徐州贾汪区为例

煤炭资源型城市为我国经济发展提供了重要的资源和能源支持,研究资源型城市转型的经验模式对调整区域经济结构、确保社会稳定和改善生态环境具有重要的实践意义。本文采用文献综述法和实证分析法,研究我国东部煤炭资源枯竭型城市转型所面临的共性难题,并以徐州贾汪区转型探索经历为例,总结城市转型的"徐州贾汪区模式",主要包括放大正向外部效应、长期坚持矿地融合、大力建设矿区社会生态系统恢复力三条路径。研究结果表明,煤炭城市转型发展的共性问题相互联系、相互影响,是一个系统性难题,必须引入系统性思维。我国东部矿区普遍人口密集,农业发达、沉陷积水是最主要的共性特征,煤炭开采产生的社会问题、经济问题、生态问题、环境问题基本相同,转型发展模式值得互鉴。     

乌兰矿采矿现状及技术应对方案

本文分析了乌兰矿投产前期采矿现状及存在的主要问题,针对该矿所处蒙古国经济落后、投资风险大的现实状况,为避免生产中断、规避投资风险,早日回收前期投资考虑,采取了双斜坡道开拓、全尾胶结充填、高端壁空场嗣后充填采矿、多中段组合式连续开采等系列技术应对方案。大大降低了一次性投资规模及投资风险,前期投资得以快速回笼的同时,矿山产能也充分释放,确保了矿山的持续稳定,取得了较好的经济和社会效益。为海外地下近地表矿体开采矿山规避投资风险提供了很好的技术方案借鉴。     

Flexible Distribution-Based Regression Models for Count Data: Application to Medical Diagnosis

Abstract

Data mining techniques have been successfully utilized in different applications of significant fields, including medical research. With the wealth of data available within the health-care systems, there is a lack of practical analysis tools to discover hidden relationships and trends in data. The complexity of medical data that is unfavorable for most models is a considerable challenge in prediction. The ability of a model to perform accurately and efficiently in disease diagnosis is extremely significant. Thus, the model must be selected to fit the data better, such that the learning from previous data is most efficient, and the diagnosis of the disease is highly accurate. This work is motivated by the limited number of regression analysis tools for multivariate counts in the literature. We propose two regression models for count data based on flexible distributions, namely, the multinomial Beta-Liouville and multinomial scaled Dirichlet, and evaluated the proposed models in the problem of disease diagnosis. The performance is evaluated based on the accuracy of the prediction which depends on the nature and complexity of the dataset. Our results show the efficiency of the two proposed regression models where the prediction performance of both models is competitive to other previously used regression models for count data and to the best results in the literature.     

Event-triggered variable horizon Supervisory Predictive control of hybrid power plants

The supervision of a hybrid power plant, including solar panels, a gas microturbine and a storage unit operating under varying solar power profiles is considered. The Economic Supervisory Predictive controller assigns the power references to the controlled subsystems of the hybrid cell using a financial criterion. A prediction of the renewable sources power is embedded into the supervisor. Results deteriorate when the solar power is unsteady, owing to the inaccuracy of the predictions for a long-range horizon of 10 s. The receding horizon is switched between an upper and a lower value according to the amplitude of the solar power trend. Theoretical results show the relevance of horizon switching, according to a tradeoff between performance and prediction accuracy. Experimental results, obtained in a Hardware In the Loop (HIL) framework, show the relevance of the variable horizon approach. Power amplifiers allow us to simulate virtual components, such as a gas microturbine, and to blend their powers with that of real devices (storage unit, real solar panels). In this case, fuel savings, reaching 15%, obtained under unsteady operating conditions lead to a better overall performance of the hybrid cell. The overall savings obtained in the experiments amount to 12%.     

THE effect of Srandom DOPANT fluctuation on threshold voltage and drain current variation in junctionless nanotransistors

We investigate the effect of dopant random fluctuation on threshold voltage and drain current variation in a two-gate nanoscale transistor. We used a quantum-corrected technology computer aided design simulation to run the simulation (10000 randomizations). With this simulation, we could study the effects of varying the dimensions (length and width), and thicknesses of oxide and dopant factors of a transistor on the threshold voltage and drain current in subthreshold region (off) and overthreshold (on). It was found that in the subthreshold region the variability of the drain current and threshold voltage is relatively fixed while in the overthreshold region the variability of the threshold voltage and drain current decreases remarkably, despite the slight reduction of gate voltage diffusion (compared with that of the subthreshold). These results have been interpreted by using previously reported models for threshold current variability, load displacement, and simple analytical calculations. Scaling analysis shows that the variability of the characteristics of this semiconductor increases as the effects of the short channel increases. Therefore, with a slight increase of length and a reduction of width, oxide thickness, and dopant factor, we could correct the effect of the short channel.     

Control of the particle microstructure during the synthesis of bulk-polymerized transparent methacrylate-acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene resin

A series of methacrylate-acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (MABS) resins was prepared using bulk polymerization. The polarity of the continuous phase and the compatibility of two phases were changed by adjusting the methyl methacrylate (MMA) content, choosing values that were close to styrene-butadiene rubber solubility value. The possibility of controlling the microstructure of the MABS resin by changing the polarity of the components and the compatibility of two phases was assessed. The dynamic mechanical analysis shows that the compatibility of two phases varies with the MMA content. The morphological analysis shows that increasing MMA contents results in a gradual decrease in the sub-inclusion structure with a network skeleton of rubber particles, and that all the particles become solid rubber when the MMA content reaches 75%. The sub-inclusion structure reappears but does not have a network skeleton when the MMA content is 90%. The impact strength and morphological analysis indicate that the solid rubber particles and the sub-inclusion structure with a network skeleton provide excellent toughness, while the sub-inclusion structure without a network skeleton does not. In contrast, the transmittance of the ABS resin first increased and then decreased with increasing MMA content.     

Model repair — aligning process models to reality

Process mining techniques relate observed behavior (i.e., event logs) to modeled behavior (e.g., a BPMN model or a Petri net). Process models can be discovered from event logs and conformance checking techniques can be used to detect and diagnose differences between observed and modeled behavior. Existing process mining techniques can only uncover these differences, but the actual repair of the model is left to the user and is not supported. In this paper we investigate the problem of repairing a process model w.r.t. a log such that the resulting model can replay the log (i.e., conforms to it) and is as similar as possible to the original model. To solve the problem, we use an existing conformance checker that aligns the runs of the given process model to the traces in the log. Based on this information, we decompose the log into several sublogs of non-fitting subtraces. For each sublog, either a loop is discovered that can replay the sublog or a subprocess is derived that is then added to the original model at the appropriate location. The approach is implemented in the process mining toolkit ProM and has been validated on logs and models from several Dutch municipalities.