| 实现指标相关性解耦的售电市场过渡期风险指标评估及权重确定 |
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| 引用本文： | 余德钊,裘华东,刘卫东,刘周斌,徐晨博,丁一,宋永华.实现指标相关性解耦的售电市场过渡期风险指标评估及权重确定[J].现代电力,2018,35(2):1-7. |
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| 作者姓名： | 余德钊 裘华东 刘卫东 刘周斌 徐晨博 丁一 宋永华 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江杭州 310027; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家电网公司总部科技项目(5211JY160005) |
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| 摘 要： | 立足于售电市场过渡期,分析日益多元化的售电市场中售电业务变化及市场新特征,建立售电市场分层风险评估指标。然后考虑多指标间的相关性对确定指标权重的影响,采用施密特正交化方法解耦指标间相关性,并通过离差标准化和指标值映射确定指标间重要度比较值,继而采用层次分析法实现各指标权重的求解。算例选择各指标的评价结果作为样本数据,采用所提的权重确定方法解耦指标相关性并确定各指标权重,结果表明所提出的权重确定方法能够有效地确定售电市场重要风险及其权重。该风险指标权重确定方法将应用于售电市场过渡期风险评估。
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| 关 键 词： | 售电市场 风险评估 指标相关性 指标权重 层次分析法 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017-04-27 |
Method for Determining the Index Evaluation and Weighting for the Transition Period of Electricity Retail Market by Considering the Correlation of Indexes |
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| Affiliation: | 1.School of Electrical Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310027, China;2.State Grid Zhejiang Electric Power Corporation, Hangzhou 310007, China;3.State Grid Zhejiang Economic Research Institute, Hangzhou 310008, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to cope with the increasing diversification of the electricity retail market, the changes and the new characteristics of the market are analyzed, and the risk assessment index for the transition period of electricity retail market is established in this paper. By considering the effect of correlation among multiple indexes on weighting index, Schmidt Orthogonalization is used to decouple the correlation among indexes and then the deviation standardization and index mapping are determined to set up judgment matrix that is a key part of analytic hierarchy process (AHP). In addition, AHP is applied to calculate index weight. In the end, the evaluation result of each index is used as sample data, and proposed weighting determining method is applied to decouple correlation of indexes and set weighting of each index. Results show that the proposed method can effectively determine the important risk index and its weight. This method will be applied to risk assessment for the transition period of the electricity market. |
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