不确定竞争及合作环境影响下的动态协商模型

提出一种动态多议题协商模型(DMNM),该模型由环境分析模型(PCCM)和协商决策模型(NDM)两部分组成.PCCM利用生态学中的种群自生长原理,结合种群密度变化情况对竞争及合作环境进行有效分析.NDM通过引入个体战略特征提高决策模型的灵活性,并利用一种基于协同进化的混合优化算法(CE-HOA)实现多议题让步平衡,以保...     

基于对手案例学习的多议题协商决策模型

为了解决多Agent系统(MAS)协商双方在信息对称情况下的自动协商问题,提出了一种用基于支持向量机算法的间接学习对手协商态度的协商方法,提出了不完全信息条件下基于案例和对策论的Agent多议题Pareto最优协商模型,通过支持向量机的方法来学习协商轨迹,得到协商对手在每个协商项的态度,然后利用学习得到的对手协商态度,构造了一个协商的决策模型,此模型能同时基于对手的态度和自身的偏好来做出协商决策。最后通过实验验证了该方法的先进性。     

多Agent多阶段一对多协商模型

为解决多Agent一对多、多议题协商问题,提出了具有议题属性协商阶段的多阶段协商模型,设计了一种根据Agent让步幅度变化所形成的曲线来判定Agent类型和使用何种协商方法的协商策略.详细地分析了多Agent、多阶段一对多协商的协商过程.将三角模糊数多属性决策方法引入到多Agent协商过程中降低了决策者评估对方所提出方案的难度,能更自然地对不同方案的优劣进行排序.模拟算例表明,该模型有效且可行,为多Agent协商提供可参考的模型和求解算法.     

基于自适应差分进化算法的多边多议题协商

为提高基于智能体(agent)的电子商务多边多议题协商的效率及稳定性,提出改进的自适应差分进化算法(ADE)并将其引入到合作环境下的多边多议题协商问题中。差分进化(DE)算法是目前求解连续空间内全局优化问题性能最优的进化优化算法之一。利用该算法收敛速度快、收敛精度高、全局寻优能力强等特点加快多边多议题协商的速度,使协商效率更高、稳定性更强。通过与目前解决多边多议题协商问题效果最好的混合遗传算法(HGA)对比,实验结果表明,自适应差分进化算法具有更快的收敛速度和更好的稳定性,可以使多边多议题协商中的各智能体达到协商最优解,并有效地减少协商次数,提高协商的效率和稳定性。     

基于Nearest-Biclusters协作过滤技术的效用图结构学习算法

在多议题协商研究中,议题之间的依赖关系增加了协商Agent效用函数的复杂性,从而使得多议题协商变得更加困难.基于效用图的多议题依赖协商模型是体现议题间依赖关系的多议题协商模型.在该协商模型中,协商双方仅需要较少的协商步数就能够找到满足Pareto效率的协商结局.如何有效地学习买方Agent的效用图结构是该协商模型的关键.文中基于Nearest-Biclusters协作过滤技术的思想提出了一种新的效用图结构学习算法(NBCFL算法).该算法首先利用Nearest-Biclusters协作过滤技术发现买方偏好的局部匹配特性,提取与当前买方Agent类型相同的买方Agent所产生的协商历史记录,然后通过计算各议题间的依赖度学习买方Agent的效用图结构.实验表明在参与协商的买方Agent类型不同的条件下,NBCFL算法比IBCFL算法能更好地学习买方Agent的效用图结构.     

基于Bayesian学习的适应性优化协商模型

在复杂的自动协商环境中,设计能够处理不完全信息和动态情形的协商agent有效学习机制正成为具有挑战性的议题.提出了一种基于Bayesian学习的时间依赖的双边多议题协商优化模型(BLMSEAN).通过只观察对手的历史报价,将Bayesian学习和基于混合策略的演化算法相结合,所提模型使得协商agent能够对于对手协商参数的概率分布有更精确的估计(如期限、保留报价和议题权重等),能够适应性地调整让步策略使协商双方都受益,提高了协商的成功率和效用.通过实验可以显示所提的模型学习对手私有信息和适应性调整让步策略的有效性.     

基于SOA的多边多议题协商模型的研究

提出了一种新的协商模型--基于面向服务架构(SOA)的多边多议题协商模型.利用面向服务架构(SOA)技术来构建松散耦合的协商模型,并在协商模型中应用本体的基本理论和相关技术来定义提议、议题等本体模型,以实现协商议题的多样性和可变性,最后在SOA的框架下以Web服务方式使用经SOAP封装的通信原语实现多边多议题协商模型.     

一种零售电子市场中的商品交易自动协商模型

本文提出了一个针对零售电子市场中商品交易协商的双边多议题自动协商模型。基于实质利益协商法的原则,综合采用带优先级的模糊约束满足问题(PFCSP)和多属性效用理论(MAUT)的思想对协商进行建模,给出了买卖双方Agent的形式化模型,对协商双方的行为和策略进行了算法描述,并对协商可能获得的结果进行了分析。     

基于Agent的双边多议题协商算法

双边多议题协商是一个复杂的动态交互过程。解决Agent在对环境和对方信息不全知的情况下通过协商达成一致并最大化自身效用是非常重要的。为了寻求Pareto效率解,提出了一种在无中介参与的情况下双方通过多轮相互探测求解的方法。实验分析了偏好对协商过程的影响并说明了该算法是一种在较低计算代价下求得Pareto效率解的有效双边多议题协商算法。     

协商僵局的消解策略研究

针对多议题协商中的僵局问题,提出了一个基于议题权值的优化策略。利用学习机制预测对手议题权值,并考虑多议题协商中各议题之间的相关性,在保证协商参与者利益的前提下,根据议题的权值,有针对性地调整议题预保留值的取值,从而能够打破僵局,并快速消解协商僵局,促使协商双方得到合理协商解,使得协商效率大大提高。     

Naturalistic artistic decision-making and metacognition in the music studio

Professional artistic contexts, such as studio-based music production, are rarely investigated in naturalistic decision-making (NDM) research, though creative work is characterised by uncertainty, risk, a lack of clearly definable goals, and in the case of music production, a complex socio-technical working environment that brings together a diverse group of specialized collaborators. This study investigates NDM in the music production studio. In music production, there is a professional role explicitly tasked with taking decisions—the (record) producer. The producer, as a creative collaborator, is differentiated as a problem-solver, solution creator and goal setter. This investigation looks at the producer’s metacognitive abilities for reflecting on the nature of problems and decisions. An important challenge for this study is to develop methods for observing decision-making without unrealistically reducing the amount of uncertainty around outcomes or creative intention within a studio production. In the face of that, a method is proposed that combines socio-cultural musicology and cognitive approaches and uses ethnographic data. Preliminary findings shed light on how the producer in this study self-manages his decisions and his interactions with, and in response to, the production environment; how decisions and actions sustain collaboration; how experience is utilized to identify scenarios and choose actions; and the kinds of strategies employed and their expected outcomes. Findings provide evidence that exercising producing skills and performing production tasks involve metacognitive reflection.     

NDM-Based Cognitive Agents for Supporting Decision-Making Teams

Naturalistic decision making (NDM) focuses on how people actually make decisions in realistic settings that typically involve ill-structured problems. Taking an experimental approach, we investigate the impacts of using an NDM-based software agent (R-CAST) on the performance of human decision-making teams in a simulated C3I (Communications, Command, Control and Intelligence) environment. We examined four types of decision-making teams with mixed human and agent members playing the roles of intelligence collection and command selection. The experiment also involved two within-group control variables: task complexity and context switching frequency. The result indicates that the use of an R-CAST agent in intelligence collection allows its team member to consider the latest situational information in decision making but might increase the team member's cognitive load. It also indicates that a human member playing the role of command selection should not rely too much on the agent serving as his or her decision aid. Together, it is suggested that the roles of both humans and cognitive agents are critical for achieving the best possible performance of C3I decision-making teams: Whereas agents are superior in computation-intensive activities such as information seeking and filtering, humans are superior in projecting and reasoning about dynamic situations and more adaptable to teammates' cognitive capacities. This study has demonstrated that cognitive agents empowered with NDM models can serve as the teammates and decision aids of human decision makers. Advanced decision support systems built upon such team-aware agents could help achieve reduced cognitive load and effective human-agent collaboration.     

一种面向图形化建模语言表示法的元模型

对于图形化的建模语言,为定义其表示法一般需要解决3个问题:如何定义每个建模元素的图形符号,如何定义图形符号之间的位置关系以及如何将表示法映射到抽象语法.为了方便进行模型转换和代码生成,还需要使用模型化的方式描述建模语言的表示法.通过对UML及其语言家族中的表示法进行总结、分析和归纳,提出了一种表示法定义元模型(notation definition metamodel,简称NDM).针对定义表示法所面临的3个问题,NDM被分成基本图元及其布局、基本位置关系和抽象语法桥三部分.使用NDM定义好的表示法模型还可以通过代码生成技术生成可使用的源代码.将NDM与其他几种定义表示法的方法进行了比较,结果表明,NDM与其他方法相比具有优势.NDM已经在元建模工具PKU MetaModeler中实现.介绍了NDM在实际应用中的几个案例.     

提高移动机器人路径规划效率的方法

针对传统遗传算法存在的初始种群数目庞大,寻优效率和收敛速度慢的缺点,提出了一种基于粗糙集约简决策规则和删除冗余属性的方法。首先建立基于特定栅格法的环境模型,获得机器人路径规划的初始决策表,然后根据粗糙集约简推导最小化决策规则,并用于训练初始种群。最后利用遗传算法优化初始种群,获得最优规划路径。分别在简单和复杂的环境模型下进行了实验,仿真结果表明该方法能够大大减小遗传算法初始种群的规模,缩小算法搜索范围,提高遗传算法的收敛速度和寻优效率,验证了该方法的可行性和优越性。     

Naturalistic decision making

OBJECTIVE: This article describes the origins and contributions of the naturalistic decision making (NDM) research approach. BACKGROUND: NDM research emerged in the 1980s to study how people make decisions in real-world settings. Method: The findings and methods used by NDM researchers are presented along with their implications. RESULTS: The NDM framework emphasizes the role of experience in enabling people to rapidly categorize situations to make effective decisions. CONCLUSION: The NDM focus on field settings and its interest in complex conditions provide insights for human factors practitioners about ways to improve performance. APPLICATION: The NDM approach has been used to improve performance through revisions of military doctrine, training that is focused on decision requirements, and the development of information technologies to support decision making and related cognitive functions.     

基于Q-learning的不确定环境BDI Agent最优策略规划研究

BDI模型能够很好地解决在特定环境下的Agent的推理和决策问题,但在动态和不确定环境下缺少决策和学习的能力。强化学习解决了Agent在未知环境下的决策问题,却缺少BDI模型中的规则描述和逻辑推理。针对BDI在未知和动态环境下的策略规划问题,提出基于强化学习Q-learning算法来实现BDI Agent学习和规划的方法,并针对BDI的实现模型ASL的决策机制做出了改进,最后在ASL的仿真平台Jason上建立了迷宫的仿真,仿真实验表明,在加入Q-learning学习机制后的新的ASL系统中,Agent在不确定环境下依然可以完成任务。     

基于反射技术的有性能约束特征的软件集成方法研究

软件集成是一种基于构件技术的软件复用实践．提出了一个基于反射技术，遵循传统CORBA规范、采用中间件技术和特有构件模型(具有性能约束的构件模型PCCM)的解决方案一基于反射技术有性能约束特征的软件集成．其特点是对传统软件集成方法进行扩充，引入反射技术，具体化性能约束的静态描述和集成中间件的性能约束动态机制，建立能够保障单一性能约束、组合性能约束的统一开放式模型．最后给出一个相应案例．     

Nonlinear discriminant mapping using the Laplacian of a graph

In this paper, an algorithm for nonlinear discriminant mapping (NDM) is presented, which elegantly integrates the ideas of both linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and Isomap by using the Laplacian of a graph. The objective of NDM is to find a linear subspace project of nonlinear data set, which preserves maximum difference between between-class scatter and within-class scatter.     

基于灰色Verhulst模型的因特网访问人数预测分析

本文预测因特网访问人数,为开展网络建设、应用及管理提供决策依据;分析了实测数据反映的特征,给出了基于灰色Verhulst模型的建模理据和预测分析的详细过程;对模型预测结果进行了分析验证,模型的拟合精度检验指标（C=0．09,P=1．00）达优。检验结果表明,所建立的Verhulst模型对同等实测数据的预测效果优于GMC（1,n）模型 。     

A GP-AHP method for solving group decision-making fuzzy AHP problems

The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) elicits a corresponding priority vector interpreting the preferred information from the decision-maker(s), based on the pairwise comparison values of a set of objects. Since pairwise comparison values are the judgments obtained from an appropriate semantic scale, in practice the decision-maker(s) usually give some or all pair-to-pair comparison values with an uncertainty degree rather than precise ratings. By employing the property of goal programming (GP) to treat a fuzzy AHP problem, this paper incorporates an absolute term linearization technique and a fuzzy rating expression into a GP-AHP model for solving group decision-making fuzzy AHP problems. In contrast to current fuzzy AHP methods, the GP-AHP method developed herein can concurrently tackle the pairwise comparison involving triangular, general concave and concave–convex mixed fuzzy estimates under a group decision-making environment.

Scope and purpose

Many real world decision problems involve multiple criteria in qualitative domains. As expected, such problems will be increasingly modeled as multiple criteria decision-making problems, which involve scoring on subjective/qualitative domains. This results in a class of significant problems for which an evaluation framework, which handles occurrences of seeming intransitivity and inconsistency will be required. Another interesting issue of group decision-making analysis is how to deal with disagreements between two or more different rankings within an alternative set. These phenomena are likely to appear in qualitative/subjective domains where the decision-making environment is ambiguous and vague. Therefore, this study proposes a GP-AHP model that is sufficiently robust to permit conflict and imprecision. Numerical examples demonstrate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed models in deriving the most promising priority vector from a fuzzy AHP problem within a group decision-making environment.