TNT基炸药储存寿命评估研究?

为解决有效评估炸药储存寿命的难题,提出一套基于炸药加速退化试验失重率阈值的储存寿命评估技术。采用基于伪失效寿命的加速寿命试验数据建模与处理方法,对某TNT基炸药加速退化试验数据,使用正态分布和威布尔分布模型,估计了两种模型参数,评定了其储存寿命。研究表明,该评估技术可行,结论可信。     

基于ARMA模型的加速退化试验可靠性评估

有限时间内很难获得大量电子产品的失效数据,传统可靠性评估方法存在一定局限。在分析传统加速退化试验可靠性评估的基础之上,提出利用时间序列对产品加速退化过程描述的方法,使用自回归滑动平均混合(ARMA)模型对退化数据进行建模,通过参数估计得到其退化规律的表达式,从而外推出其失效寿命,进而利用极大似然估计理论进行可靠性评估。最后以某电源电路板加速退化试验数据为例,分时间序列建模和可靠性评估两大步骤,分别对95℃、105℃、115℃下加速退化试验数据进行分析处理,得出可靠性评估结果,验证该方法的有效性和实用性。     

三参数Weibull分布的多因素作用下混凝土加速寿命试验

针对中国西部盐渍土地区混凝土耐久性较差的突出问题,设计了模拟自然环境的室内混凝土加速寿命试验,其中包括盐卤腐蚀、干湿循环、冻融循环和太阳辐射。采用动弹性模量作为评价混凝土耐久性失效阈值,得到混凝土加速寿命数据。基于三参数Weibull分布,运用概率分析软件对寿命数据进行分析预测,得到加速寿命分布概要图。结果表明,三参数Weibull分布能够很好地拟合加速寿命数据样本点;其阈值参数可直观反映混凝土开始退化失效的时间;其分布概要图可直观反映加速退化过程中的可靠性,从而为混凝土耐久性评估提供新的可靠性依据。     

牛津型斯特林制冷机的加速寿命试验

分析了牛津型长寿命斯特林制冷机的主要失效模式、失效机理以及应用特点,提出高温运行的加速寿命评价方法.4 300 h的加速寿命试验结果表明,制冷机性能已明显退化,并呈现污染导致的失效特征,初步验证高温加速污染失效的有效性.     

电应力加速退化试验技术及可靠性评估研究

为探究电冲击对电子装备寿命的影响,选取电源通断瞬间产生的高压为电冲击加速应力,并以雷达某系统功能电路板为研究对象,开展电应力加速退化试验。通过对试验数据的统计分析,得到基于性能退化轨迹的伪失效寿命,并在Weibull分布条件下进行参数估计,提出基于电应力的电源开关通断电加速模型,并实现对某型雷达功能电路板的可靠性评估。     

航天电连接器加速性能退化试验可行性研究

为解决高可靠长寿命的航天电连接器即使进行加速寿命试验也难以获得失效数据的问题,对电连接器失效模式以及长期贮存下接触性能变化结果进行分析,表明电连接器性能退化存在可能性,并根据长期贮存下试验数据的验证,得出电连接器性能具有退化特性.通过温度加速应力下电连接器接触性能数据的分析,得出其性能退化具有加速性,还具有一定的加速退化规律,这为采用加速性能退化试验对航天电连接器进行可靠性评估提供了依据.     

高可靠性产品退化建模研究综述

退化建模是解决高可靠性、长寿命产品可靠性评估及贮存寿命预计问题的一种新策略。从基于物理失效的退化模型和基于统计的退化模型两个方面对高可靠性产品退化建模的发展现状进行了综述,概括了两类模型涉及的失效机理、建模、试验配置、模型误判等,并对常见的两类模型进行了介绍。论文还阐述了退化模型与寿命估计的关联关系。     

随机冲击影响的多部件退化设备寿命预测方法

针对随机冲击影响下的多部件串联退化设备,该文提出一种基于竞争失效的可靠性评估与寿命预测方法。首先,分别用线性随机过程描述设备各部件的连续退化过程,并使用复合泊松过程刻画因随机冲击导致部件退化水平累积的影响;其次,鉴于冲击导致的软、硬竞争失效过程,通过构建冲击造成的硬失效影响之间的相关性,得到设备的可靠度函数进而得到其寿命分布曲线;最后,数值仿真说明不同冲击参数对设备可靠性及寿命分布结果的影响。实例验证结果表明:该文所提方法能够提高多部件退化设备可靠性评估及寿命预测精度,具有一定的工程应用价值。     

基于仿真的竞争失效产品综合应力加速寿命试验优化设计

针对竞争失效产品综合应力加速寿命试验存在试验时间长、费用高、效率低的问题,提出一种基于仿真的竞争失效产品综合应力加速寿命试验优化设计方法。采用Monte-Carlo进行仿真模拟,以正常使用应力下的p阶分位寿命渐进方差估计最小为目标,在各应力组合下试验截尾数大小给定的条件下,以试验应力水平大小作为设计变量,利用MLE理论进行统计分析,建立基于仿真的竞争失效产品综合应力加速寿命试验优化设计模型。通过实例分析表明该方法有效、可行,为电子装备寿命预测的加速试验方案优化设计提供技术支撑。     

基于加速模型的柱塞泵寿命评估方法研究

给出一种通过增加油液介质污染度作为加速应力的柱塞泵寿命评估方法。该方法首先分析了影响柱塞泵寿命的失效原因，其次给出了柱塞泵的磨损加速寿命试验方法，然后建立加速寿命模型，利用统计分析方法给出了柱塞泵的寿命计算方法。     

Estimation of Parameters of Universal Distribution of Moments of Failure of Products

A method is proposed for estimating the parameters of a mixture of exponential and Weibull distributions for which the accuracy of preliminary estimates obtained by graphical analysis is refined in accordance with the criterion of maximum likelihood. The efficiency of the proposed method is supported by the results of statistical modeling.     

Evaluation of optical properties of highly scattering media by moments of distributions of times of flight of photons

A novel method for the determination of the optical properties of tissue from time-domain measurements is presented. The data analysis is based on the evaluation of the first moment and the second centralized moment, i.e., the mean time of flight and the variance of the measured distribution of times of flight (DTOF) of photons injected by short (picosecond) laser pulses. Analytical expressions are derived for calculation of absorption and of reduced scattering coefficients from these moments by application of diffusion theory for infinite and semi-infinite homogeneous media. The proposed method was tested on experimental data obtained with phantoms, and results for absorption and reduced scattering coefficients obtained by the proposed method are compared with those obtained by fitting of the same data with analytical solutions of the diffusion equation. Furthermore, the accuracy of the moment analysis was investigated for a range of integration limits of the DTOF. The moment analysis may serve as a comparatively fast method for evaluating optical properties with sufficient accuracy and can be used, e.g., for on-line monitoring of optical properties of biological tissue.     

Estimation of potentialities of methods of summation of direct measurement errors

Conventional methods for summation of direct measurement errors are considered. Conditions under which these methods provide consistent results are stated. It is proposed to utilize for characteristic of the total error, its interval estimator or the half-sum of the value obtained by adding up its arithmetic and geometric random errors.Translated from Izmeritel'naya Tekhnika, No. 4, pp. 10–12, April, 1995.     

空压机轴承箱蜗壳温度探头油封改造

由于空压机进气侧轴承箱蜗壳温度探头密封效果不好,使空压机及其后续管道受到油污染。后将温度探头的O形圈密封改为骨架油封,杜绝了轴承箱漏油问题。文章简介空压机的结构和技术参数,详细介绍了骨架油封的制作和优点。     

Characteristics of mechanical properties of materials in studies of conditions of attainment of marginal states

It is shown that conditions of attainment of marginal states in the material of structural components are formulated on the basis of analysis of force and deformation criteria of formation and development of destruction. The parameters of these criteria are data on types of structural materials, standard and special characteristics of their mechanical properties, structural forms of considered elements of the equipment, and their operating stress loading. In this case, the construction of a system of state equations for describing interrelation of current damage, external actions, and responses to them is based on the concept of calculating variations in properties of materials at all stages of the design life cycle.     

Determination of parameters of microstructural inhomogeneity of deformation of metals by the method of modeling

The article suggests a method of evaluating the microstructural inhomogeneity of deformation of metals by modeling. The method includes the measurement of deformations of metal according to meshes of a dividing grid with small base and the calculation of the distribution parameters of microdeformations in model representation. It is shown that the modeling method makes it possible objectively to evaluate the microinhomogeneity of deformation of metals independently of the chosen mesh size of the dividing grid. New structural characteristics are introduced: the base and wave of variation expressing the degree of crumbling or amalgamation of metal grains by inhomogeneity of deformation.Translated from Problemy Prochnosti, No. 7, pp. 40–44, July, 1991.     

Analysis of the rate of propagation of the wave of change of boiling modes

An approximate analytical expression is derived for the velocity of the front of the wave of change of boiling modes on a rod and on a plate. The impact of the Thomson effect and of the heater orientation in the gravity field is included. Adequate agreement is demonstrated between the derived relations and experimental data.     

水三相点复现的不确定度评定

水三相点是开尔文热力学温度的唯一基准点，也是ITS-90国际温标重要的定义固定点。因此，水三相点不确定度分析对整个温标的建立、温度量值传递起着至关重要的作用。近3年来，中国计量科学研究院研制出一系列高质量的水三相点容器，加强了水三相点的研究，为不确定度的分析提供了更为可靠的实验依据。同时，不确定度的分析也是客观评价新研制容器性能的一个重要指标。因此，根据实验结果对新研制容器所复现的水三相点进行了不确定度评定。评定结果表明，其扩展不确定度为0．16mK(k=2．69，P=0．99)。