Developing a soft sensor based on sparse partial least squares with variable selection

Soft sensors are used to predict response variables, which are difficult to measure, using the data of predictors that can be obtained relatively easier. Arranging time-lagged data of predictors and applying partial least squares (PLS) to the dataset is a popular approach for extracting the correlation between data of the responses and predictors of the process dynamic. However, the model input dimension dramatically soars once multiple time delays are incorporated. In addition, the selection of variables in the dynamic PLS (DPLS) model is a critical step for the robustness and the accuracy of the inferential model, since irrelevant inputs deteriorate the prediction performance of the soft sensor. The sparse PLS (SPLS) is a variable selection method that simultaneously selects the important predictors and finds the correlation between the predictors and responses. The sparsity of the model is dependent on a cut-off value in the SPLS algorithm that is determined using a cross-validation procedure. Therefore, the threshold is a compromise for all latent variable directions. It is necessary to further shrink the inputs from the result of SPLS to obtain a more compact model. In the presented work, named SPLS-VIP, the variable importance in projection (VIP) method was used to filter out the insignificant inputs from the SPLS result. An industrial soft sensor for predicting oxygen concentrations in the air separation process was developed based on the proposed approach. The prediction performance and the model interpretability could be further improved from the SPLS method using the proposed approach.     

炼油厂原油蒸馏装置软仪表技术的研究与应用

原油蒸馏的产品指标都是用ASTM沸点为质量衡量标准,操作工通常都是依赖化验分析数据进行操作,这样常使得操作工操作经常远离约束区.在线分析仪较之化验分析数据有很大改进,但在线分析仪购置费用昂贵,维护工作量大,提供的分析数据滞后较大,不适合闭环控制.文中开发的炼油厂原油蒸馏装置软仪表技术采用了独特的压力补偿温度机制,其最大...     

基于混合变分自编码器回归模型的软测量建模方法EI北大核心CSCD

近年来,变分自编码器(Variational auto-encoder,VAE)模型由于在概率数据描述和特征提取能力等方面的优越性,受到了学术界和工业界的广泛关注,并被引入到工业过程监测、诊断和软测量建模等应用中.然而,传统基于VAE的软测量方法使用高斯分布作为潜在变量的分布,限制了其对复杂工业过程数据,尤其是多模态数据的建模能力.为了解决这一问题,本论文提出了一种混合变分自编码器回归模型(Mixture variational autoencoder regression,MVAER),并将其应用于复杂多模态工业过程的软测量建模.具体来说,该方法采用高斯混合模型来描述VAE的潜在变量分布,通过非线性映射将复杂多模态数据映射到潜在空间,学习各模态下的潜在变量,获取原始数据的有效特征表示.同时,建立潜在特征表示与关键质量变量之间的回归模型,实现软测量应用.通过一个数值例子和一个实际工业案例,对所提模型的性能进行了评估,验证了该模型的有效性和优越性.     

基于超图正则化的域适应偏最小二乘多工况软测量模型

针对流程工业中,因多工况导致数据分布变化引起传统软测量模型预测性能恶化问题,本文提出一种基于超图正则化的域适应多工况软测量回归模型框架.首先,采用非线性迭代偏最小二乘回归算法为基模型,在潜变量空间利用历史工况数据重构当前工况数据,以增强工况间的相关性,有效减小数据分布差异;同时,对重构系数施加低秩稀疏约束,保留了数据的局部和全局子空间结构;其次,通过超图拉普拉斯正则项对域适应潜变量求解过程进行约束,避免在寻找潜变量过程中破坏数据结构.最后,利用交替方向乘子法优化求解模型参数.在多个数据集上的实验表明,本文方法在多工况环境下可有效提高软测量模型的预测精度和泛化性能.     

Data supplement for a soft sensor using a new generative model based on a variational autoencoder and Wasserstein GAN

In industrial process control, measuring some variables is difficult for environmental or cost reasons. This necessitates employing a soft sensor to predict these variables by using the collected data from easily measured variables. The prediction accuracy and computational speed in the modeling procedure of soft sensors could be improved with adequate training samples. However, the rough environment of some industrial fields makes it difficult to acquire enough samples for soft sensor modeling. Generative adversarial networks (GANs) and the variational autoencoder (VAE) are two prominent methods that have been employed for learning generative models. In the current work, the VA-WGAN combining VAE with Wasserstein generative adversarial networks (WGAN) as a generative model is established to produce new samples for soft sensors by using the decoder of VAE as the generator in WGAN. An actual industrial soft sensor with insufficient data is used to verify the data generation capability of the proposed model. According to the experimental results, the samples obtained with the proposed model more closely resemble the true samples compared with the other four common generative models. Moreover, the insufficiency of the training data and the prediction precision of soft sensors could be improved via these constructed samples.     

Quality prediction for polypropylene production process based on CLGPR model

Online measurement of the melt index is typically unavailable in industrial polypropylene production processes, soft sensing models are therefore required for estimation and prediction of this important quality variable. Polymerization is a highly nonlinear process, which usually produces products with multiple quality grades. In the present paper, an effective soft sensor, named combined local Gaussian process regression (CLGPR), is developed for prediction of the melt index. While the introduced Gaussian process regression model can well address the high nonlinearity of the process data in each operation mode, the local modeling structure can be effectively extended to processes with multiple operation modes. Feasibility and efficiency of the proposed soft sensor are demonstrated through the application to an industrial polypropylene production process.     

一种软测量模型在线校正方法及应用

提出了一种软测量模型在线校正方法,该方法把变量之间相关性强弱的思想引入软测量模型校正中,根据变量相关性的强弱程度和性质来确定系数修正量的大小,提高了模型测量的实时性和灵活性,并将其成功应用于电石生产比电阻的软测量中.     

Development and industrial application of soft sensors with on-line Bayesian model updating strategy

This paper deals with the issues associated with the development of data-driven models as well as model update strategy for soft sensor applications. A practical yet effective solution is proposed. Key process variables that are difficult to measure are commonly encountered in practice due to limitations of measurement techniques. Even with appropriate instruments, some measurements are only available through off-line laboratory analysis with typical sampling intervals of several hours. Soft sensors are inferential models that can provide continuous on-line prediction of hidden variables; such models are capable of combining real-time measurements with off-line lab data. Due to the prevalence of plant-model mismatch, it is important to update the model using the latest reference data. In this paper, parameters of data-driven models are estimated using particle filters under the framework of expectation–maximization (EM) algorithms. A Bayesian methodology for model calibration strategy is formulated. The proposed framework for soft sensor development is applied to an industrial process to provide on-line prediction of a quality variable.     

Refining data-driven soft sensor modeling framework with variable time reconstruction

Due to the difference of variable positions brought by process structure, time-delay exists between process variables and quality variables. In this paper, this commonly overlooked problem in data-driven soft sensor modeling is illustrated and solved. The main idea in this paper is to take the variable time-delay (VTD) as a model parameter to reconstruct the dataset and then solve it through optimizing the objective function of models. However, the combination of VTD would lead to an intractable high computational complexity, then it is proposed to use an efficient population-based Integer Differential Evolution (IDE) algorithm to select the optimal VTD values and cooperatively learn model parameters. With the help of IDE algorithm, a Variable Time Reconstruction (VTR) modeling framework is then formulated for soft sensor development. As examples, three types of VTR-based soft sensors are developed under this framework to cope with different cases of data features. The presented numerical and industrial cases demonstrate that the proposed VTR-based model can effectively learn the VTD values, which can reconstruct and recover the original data pattern, and thus significantly help increase the generalization performance of soft sensor models.     

基于JITL的电量预测高斯软测量建模研究

为了解决工业过程受本身结构特征、外界因素等影响而存在严重的非线性和时变性等问题,本文提出了一种基于输入输出综合性相似度指标的即时学习高斯过程软测量建模方法。在该方法中,将样本数据进行归一化处理,首先利用传统的基于距离和角度的相似度指标分别对样本输入输出变量进行相似度计算,进而对相似度进行综合,最后选择出最终的相关样本集,建立高斯过程回归软测量模型,将所提基于输入输出相似度指标的即时学习高斯工程软测量模型应用于城市日用电量数据的预测。研究结果表明,所提出的软测量建模方法可以实现对日用电量数据的高精度预测且预测结果具有较小的误差。因此可表明该方法可在电量预测中具有一定的应用可靠性,可以在电力市场预测分析中得到广泛的应用。     

常压塔柴油凝点动态软测量模型的研究

研究了某炼油厂常压塔三线柴油凝点的软测量建模问题。分析了影响柴油凝点的多种因素,并充分利用仪表分析值提供的被测变量历史信息,建立了一种神经网络和kvinson预测器相结合的动态软测量模型,该模型消除了分析值存在纯滞后的影响。针对某炼油厂常压塔三线柴油凝点的软测量,对该模型进行了验证。仿真研究表明,该模型的预报准确性要优于静态软测量模型,取得了较好的预测效果。     

Multiple model based LPV soft sensor development with irregular/missing process output measurement

Data-driven soft sensors have been applied extensively in process industry for process monitoring and control. Linear soft sensors, which are only valid within a relatively small operating envelope, are considered to be insufficient in practice when the processes transit among several operating modes. Moreover, owing to a variety of causes such as malfunction of sensors, multiple rate sampling scheme for different process variables, etc., missing data problem is commonly experienced in process industry. In this paper, soft sensor development with irregular/missing output data is considered and a multiple model based linear parameter varying (LPV) modeling scheme is proposed for handling nonlinearity. The efficiency of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated through several numerical simulation examples as well as a pilot-scale experiment. It is shown through the comparison with the traditional missing data treatment methods in terms of the parameter estimation accuracy that the developed soft sensors enjoy improved performance by employing the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm in handling the missing process data and model switching problem.     

Uncertainty-aware soft sensor using Bayesian recurrent neural networks

Data-driven soft sensors have been widely used to measure key variables for industrial processes. Soft sensors using deep learning models have attracted considerable attention and shown superior predictive performance. However, if a soft sensor encounters an unexpected situation in inferring data or if noisy input data is used, the estimated value derived by a standard soft sensor using deep learning may at best be untrustworthy. This problem can be mitigated by expressing a degree of uncertainty about the trustworthiness of the estimated value produced by the soft sensor. To address this issue of uncertainty, we propose using an uncertainty-aware soft sensor that uses Bayesian recurrent neural networks (RNNs). The proposed soft sensor uses a RNN model as a backbone and is then trained using Bayesian techniques. The experimental results demonstrated that such an uncertainty-aware soft sensor increases the reliability of predictive uncertainty. In comparisons with a standard soft sensor, it shows a capability to use uncertainties for interval prediction without compromising predictive performance.     

Data-driven soft sensor of downhole pressure for a gas-lift oil well

Downhole pressure is a key variable in the operation of gas-lift oil wells. However, maintaining and replacing downhole sensors is a challenging task. In this context, we design and implement a data-driven soft sensor to estimate online the downhole pressure based on other (seabed and platform) available measurements. Such application is based on a two-step procedure. In the first step, discrete-time black-box and gray-box NARX models are identified offline and independently using historical data. Both polynomial and neural models are obtained. In the second step, recursive predictions of these multiple models are combined with current measured data (of variables other than the downhole pressure) by means of an interacting bank of unscented Kalman filters. In doing so, a closed-loop model prediction is performed. Three issues are investigated in this paper concerning: (i) the usage of a filter bank rather than a single filter approach, (ii) the availability of seabed variables as inputs of the models compared to the case where only platform variables are available, and (iii) the employment of gray-box models in the filters. Experimental results along 7 months of tests indicate that such closed-loop scheme improves estimation accuracy and robustness compared to the free-run model prediction or to the use of a single unscented Kalman filter. The method employed in this paper can also be applied to other soft sensing applications in industry.     

基于同步聚类的污水水质混合在线软测量方法

污水处理过程工况频繁波动,单一模型难以保证软测量精度,提出了基于同步聚类的出水COD混合在线软测量方法。模型由简化机理模型和建模误差补偿模型组成,其中简化机理模型作为主模型,集成模型作为误差补偿模型。机理模型用于表征污水处理过程的基本动态机理特性;误差补偿集成模型中子模型均采用线性模型,用以补偿不同工况下的机理模型建模误差。子模型个数采用在线同步聚类算法进行划分,考虑了输入和输出数据的时间区间,同时考虑了相邻数据间的关联性,提高了计算效率,改善了模型的实时性。采用实际污水处理厂数据进行仿真实验,验证了所提建模方法在多个运行工况下仍具有较好的精度。     

一种基于EGMM的高斯过程回归软测量建模

提出了一种基于误差高斯混合模型（EGMM）的高斯过程回归（GPR）软测量方法．首先,选择合适的变量组成误差数据集,利用贝叶斯信息准则优化得到合适的高斯成分的个数;然后用EGMM对误差数据进行拟合计算得到条件误差均值和方差的表达式;最后当新的数据到来时,用建立的GPR模型进行输出预测,并利用EGMM模型得到的条件误差均值对输出进行补偿,从而得到更加精确的建模结果．通过数值仿真及硫回收装置（SRU）的H₂S浓度的软测量,进一步验证所提算法的可行性和有效性．     

Inferential estimation of kerosene dry point in refineries with varying crudes

A bootstrap aggregated model approach to the estimation of product quality in refineries with varying crudes is proposed in this paper. The varying crudes cause the relationship between process variables and product quality variables to change, which makes product quality estimation by soft-sensors a difficult problem. The essential idea in this paper is to build an inferential estimation model for each type of feed oil and use an on-line feed oil classifier to determine the feed oil type. Bootstrap aggregated neural networks are used in developing the on-line feed oil classifier and a bootstrap aggregated partial least square regression model is developed for each data group corresponding to each type of feed crude oil. The amount of training data in crude oil distillation is usually small and this brings difficulties for classification and estimation modelling. In order to enhance model reliability and robustness, bootstrap aggregated models are developed. The inferential estimation results of kerosene dry point on both simulated data and industrial data show that the proposed method can significantly improve the overall inferential estimation performance.     

选择性融合多尺度筒体振动频谱的磨机负荷参数建模

针对目前采用经验模态分解(empirical model decomposition,EMD)得到的系列子信号构建的磨机负荷参数软测量模型泛化性能差、难以进行清晰物理解释,以及EMD算法存在的模态混叠等问题,本文提出了基于选择性融合多尺度筒体振动频谱的建模方法.首先采用EMD、集合EMD(ensemble EMD,EEMD)、希尔伯特振动分解(Hilbert vibration decomposition,HVD)共3种多组分信号自适应分解算法获得磨机筒体振动多尺度子信号的集合,接着通过相关性分析剔除虚假无关部分,然后再将与原始信号相关性强的那部分多尺度子信号变换至频域,进而更有利于构建这些多尺度频谱与磨机负荷参数间的映射模型,最后通过改进分支定界选择性集成(improved branch and bound based selective ensemble,IBBSEN)算法建立软测量模型,实现对多源多尺度筒体振动频谱的最优选择性信息融合.基于实验球磨机运行数据的仿真实验表明所提方法在模型可解释性和泛化性能上均优于之前研究所提出方法.     

Online quality prediction for cobalt oxalate synthesis process using least squares support vector regression approach with dual updating

Online measurement of the average particle size is typically unavailable in industrial cobalt oxalate synthesis process, soft sensor prediction of the important quality variable is therefore required. Cobalt oxalate synthesis process is a complex multivariable and highly nonlinear process. In this paper, an effective soft sensor based on least squares support vector regression (LSSVR) with dual updating is developed for prediction the average particle size. In this soft sensor model, the methods of moving window LSSVR (MWLSSVR) updating and the model output offset updating is activated based on model performance assessment. Feasibility and efficiency of the proposed soft sensor are demonstrated through the application to an industrial cobalt oxalate synthesis process.