共查询到18条相似文献,搜索用时 203 毫秒
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我国正处于经济快速发展的关键时期,源源不断的能源生产和消费必不可少。积极推进电能替代,对于促进工业现代化发展、提高能源利用率、减少环境污染、缓解能源安全问题具有重要的意义。各地区实施电能替代主要集中在电动汽车、电采暖、电锅炉、港口岸电等领域。首先梳理了一系列推进电能替代的政策,分析整理了电能替代在各地区的消费供应,以及在交通领域、工农业生产领域、居民采暖与其他五大领域的发展状况。据此分析电能替代各技术的占比情况以及各地区电能替代的完成情况,挖掘电能替代潜力,并根据目前存在的问题提出建议。 相似文献
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“电能替代”战略的实施,推动了能源发展方式的转变,对中国未来能源高质量发展起到了至关重要的作用。首先对中国终端能源消费及能源供应情况进行分析,梳理了电能替代发展现状,提出了基于行业用能特征的电能替代基准年理论潜力测算模型。其次,耦合规划期政策、技术等因素,提出了“十四五”期间电能替代潜力测算方法。再次,基于潜力测算提出“十四五”期间替代电量规划方法。最后预判电能替代发展趋势。依托该模型方法,预判“十四五”期间国网经营区电能替代潜力超1万亿kW·h,替代规划电量约5000 亿kW·h。研究可为政府部门出台相关政策、电网企业科学开展电能替代工作提供支撑。 相似文献
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随着生态环境问题日趋严重,有效推进电能替代战略实施刻不容缓。定量分析电能替代潜力影响因素,对正确实施电能替代,从而优化能源布局、保护生态环境、促进节能减排等方面具有重要指导意义。因此,采用北京市2006—2015年电能替代量排放时间序列数据,基于STIRPAT模型,利用岭回归拟合得到终端电能替代量与常住人口数、人均GDP、终端电能消费强度、能源价格、能源使用量、政策支持的多元线性模型。拟合结果证明,STIRPAT模型能够提供一个简单地分解影响电能替代潜力因素的分析框架,并定量评价出各个因素的作用。 相似文献
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随着电能替代战略的不断推进,电能替代电量规模将不断扩大,对未来电网中长期负荷构成将产生较大影响。现有电网中长期负荷预测方法对电能替代电量的考虑尚不够充分,有必要进行单独的分析预测。文中分析了政策对未来电能替代发展的重要影响作用,并给出了宏观层面电能替代电量的计算方法。在此基础上,基于Logistic模型分别对终端能源消费总量和电能占终端能源消费比例进行预测,在预测过程中充分结合目前已有的相关研究成果,最终获得电能替代电量预测结果。文中模型可作为传统中长期负荷预测方法的补充,用以指导未来电源、电网和相关能源规划。 相似文献
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《The Electricity Journal》2020,33(5):106764
Presently, Lebanon provides 95 % of the primary energy electricity power generation by using fuel-oil used in thermal power plants. To meet the population needs, private generators are also used in all the country and they represent the third of total electricity production. The challenges over the future development of the Lebanese electric sector are economic and environmental. This is why currently, the energy policy makers aim to diversify the national electricity generation mix in the energy planning strategy and to introduce low-carbon technologies. The complexity of these challenges in the particular Lebanese context has motivated our study which aims to recommend policies to develop the optimal electricity generation scenario by 2030. This paper presents a methodology to evaluate different scenarios reflecting different combinations of technologies by 2030. This is achieved by using an excel tool “Excel Solver Optimization Calculator” which makes possible the interaction of various inputs to produce a least-cost generation mix. The main results focus on the least-cost electricity generation portfolio, total investment required to generate electricity, level of energy independence and carbon emissions. Many policy choices could be feasible and very advantageous for Lebanon if renewable energies are deployed massively. However, this requires policies that support the massive use of renewable energy technologies in the mix. 相似文献
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本文分析了福建水电在能源生产、消耗和电力结构中的构成。阐述了水电对缓解煤炭和电力供需矛盾以及促进国民经济发展方面所起到的作用。本文认为,维持水电的一定发展速度和开发规模,利用外资建设大型骨干水电站,国内多渠道集资开发中型水电资源,乡、镇发展自办自供的小水电等,是改革开放后1985年以来福建水电发展的主要特点。因资(资源条件,筹资渠道和出资者意愿)制宜、大中小并举。本文展望福建电力结构从历史上“水主火辅”逐渐转变为火、水、核组成的电源多元化过程中水电发展的前景。评、析水电发展面临的几个主要问题并提出相应建议。 相似文献
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In this study, a robust possibilistic mixed-integer programming (RPMP) method is developed for planning municipal electric power systems (EPS) under uncertainty. RPMP incorporates the concept of robustness within a possibilistic mixed-integer programming framework to handle ambiguous uncertainties in the objective function and constraints. It is superior to existing fuzzy possibilistic programming method by accounting for recourse actions of deviation of objective function with imprecise parameters from its optimal value, as well as economic penalties as corrective measures of possible violation for constraints with imprecise parameters. A RPMP-based electric power system (RPMP-EPS) model is then formulated for planning EPS of the City of Shenzhen, China, while cost-effective and sustainable electricity generation schemes can be achieved through analyzing city’s electricity consumption mix, electricity balance condition, as well as energy self-sufficiency. Results demonstrate that (i) power export contracts based on national and regional energy policies bring significant effects on the municipal EPS, particularly in energy supply schemes and electricity consumption mix; (ii) although city can be basically self-sufficient in power supply if nuclear power is not enforced for export, import dependency of fuels remains extremely high, leading to the insecure fuel supply and vulnerable EPS; (iii) uncertainties have significant effects on the city’s energy source supply as well as the relevant electricity-generation scheme. The findings are helpful for formulating policies of electricity generation as well as analyzing interactions among system cost, environmental objective, and electricity supply security. 相似文献