改进的非等间距GM(1,1)大坝位移监控模型

针对传统GM(1,1)监控模型在拟合和预测大坝位移方面的不足,通过采用积分方式重构背景值、引进最佳赋权矩阵体现原始数据的时间影响效应、优化残差等途径,提出了改进的非等间距GM(1,1)大坝位移监控模型。结合工程实例,对比分析表明改进的GM(1,1)监控模型相比于传统GM(1,1)监控模型在对大坝位移原始监测资料分析的基础上,预测精度有较大提高,可作为一种新的预测手段应用于大坝位移预测中。     

改进的非等间距GM(1,1)模型在大坝位移预测中的应用

针对传统GM(1,1)模型在大坝位移预测中的缺陷,通过引入时间变量构建缓冲算子、重构背景值、优化残差等方式改进传统GM(1,1)模型。以某大坝测点径向位移样本为例,分别采用两种模型对观测值进行拟合预测。结果表明,改进的非等间距GM(1,1)模型预测精度有较大提高,更适用于大坝位移监控。研究成果可为大坝位移预测提供参考。     

系统优化的GM(1,1)模型在大坝位移预测中的应用

针对传统灰色GM(1,1)模型的缺陷,以陈村大坝为例,根据最小二乘原理提出了以GM(1,1)的一次累加生成建模序列所有分量的拟合误差平方和最小为约束条件,求得新灰色GM(1,1)预测模型的最优初始值,改进了原GM(1,1)模型的背景值及灰度值,并与传统GM(1,1)模型做了比较.数值仿真结果表明,新模型精度较高,预测效...     

改进的非等间距GM(1,1)模型在大坝沉降分析中的应用

由于影响大坝监测数据因素多,且数据存在非等间距离散的情况,利用传统非等间距GM(1,1)模型的建模原理,分析了数据拟合与预测精度低的原因,提出了优化背景值的改进非等间距GM(1,1)模型,根据两种模型对施工期堆石坝心墙的沉降观测数据进行拟合和预测。实例表明,改进模型精度较高,更接近观测值,可应用于工程实际中。     

改进的GM(1,1)模型在大坝监测数据预测中的应用

针对传统的GM(1,1)模型存在数据序列的初始值过旧和光滑度较差等缺陷,采用初始值选择和三点平滑法对传统的GM(1,1)模型进行改进,以南方某拱坝#7坝段某测点径向位移样本为例,分别采用两种模型预测其未来值,并与实际值进行比较.结果表明,改进的GM(1,1)模型预测精度较高,更接近于真实值.     

基于改进灰色模型的江苏省发电量预测研究

针对传统灰色预测GM(1,1)模型在实际应用中存在预测精度不高或精度通不过检验的问题,基于2000～2009年江苏省发电量数据,采用改进的灰色预测GM(1,1)模型预测了江苏省2000～2009年发电量,并与传统灰色预测GM(1,1)模型的预测结果进行比较。结果表明,改进的灰色预测GM(1,1)模型显著提高了原始数据序列的光滑度,预测误差远低于传统灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,进而预测了江苏省2015、2020年的发电量,对江苏省制定电力发展规划具有重要的参考意义。     

基于改进背景值构造方法的GM(1,1)能源消费预测模型

针对传统GM(1,1)模型预测能源消费时存在的问题,改进了传统GM(1,1)模型中背景值的构造方法,提出用Newton差分插值和高阶Newton-Cotes公式构造背景值,并以四川省为例进行能源消费预测.结果表明,改进的GM(1,1)模型预测误差较小,精度较传统GM(1,1)模型有所提高,可用于四川省未来能源消费量的预测.     

基于改进的GM(1,1)模型的南京市用水量预测

运用传统的和改进光滑度后的GM(1,1)模型分别对南京市年用水量进行建模预测.改进的GM(1,1)模型先对原始数据进行线性变换,再对变换后的数据应用GM(1,1)模型进行预测,有效提高了模型的拟合精度和预测精度.1998～2006年南京市用水量的建模结果分析表明,改进后的GM(1,1)模型预测用水量时拟合效果更好;2007～2009年用水量资料验证亦表明改进后的模型预测精度更高.     

改进的GM(1,1)模型在西安市用水量预测中的应用

针对近年来西安市用水量变化的特点,采用改进的GM(1,1)模型用于用水量预测,并与传统的GM(1,1)预测模型进行了比较.结果表明,改进的GM(1,1)模型可取得较好的预测结果.     

大坝实测性态的灰色马尔科夫链预测方法研究

为实现大坝安全性态的准确预报,以西南某坝的多年扬压力极值为例,以扬压力实测序列建立GM(1,1)预测模型,基于预测模型的残差序列建立马尔科夫残差模型,对比分析GM(1,1)残差预测模型和马尔科夫残差模型;综合GM(1,1)模型和马尔科夫残差模型建立灰色马尔科夫模型,并利用灰色马尔科夫模型预测扬压力极大值。结果表明,灰色马尔科夫模型提高了预报的精度并恰当地反映了过程的摆动性。     

Ash-forming elements in four Scandinavian wood species. Part 1: Summer harvest

Woody biomass in Finland and Sweden comprises mainly four wood species: spruce, pine, birch and aspen. To study the ash, which may cause problems for the combustion device, one tree of each species were cut down and prepared for comparisons with fuel samples. Well-defined samples of wood, bark and foliage were analyzed on 11 ash-forming elements: Si, Al, Fe, Ca, Mg, Mn, Na, K, P, S and Cl. The ash content in the wood tissues (0.2–0.7%) was low compared to the ash content in the bark tissues (1.9–6.4%) and the foliage (2.4–7.7%). The woods’ content of ash-forming elements was consequently low; the highest contents were of Ca (410–1340 ppm) and K (200–1310), followed by Mg (70–290), Mn (15–240) and P (0–350). Present in the wood was also Si (50–190), S (50–200) and Cl (30–110). The bark tissues showed much higher element contents; Ca (4800–19,100 ppm) and K (1600–6400) were the dominating elements, followed by Mg (210–2400), P (210–1200), Mn (110–1100) and S (310–750), but the Cl contents (40–330) were only moderately higher in the bark than in the wood. The young foliage (shoots and deciduous leaves) had the highest K (7100–25,000 ppm), P (1600–5300) and S (1100–2600) contents of all tissues, while the shoots of spruce had the highest Cl contents (820–1360) and its needles the highest Si content (5000–11,300). This paper presented a new approach in fuel characterization: the method excludes the presence of impurities, and focus on different categories of plant tissues. This made it possible to discuss the contents of ash element in a wide spectrum of fuel-types, which are of large importance for the energy production in Finland and Sweden.     

Contents in Volume 23,2014

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Performance assessment of some ice TES systems

In this paper, a performance assessment of four main types of ice storage techniques for space cooling purposes, namely ice slurry systems, ice-on-coil systems (both internal and external melt), and encapsulated ice systems is conducted. A detailed analysis, coupled with a case study based on the literature data, follows. The ice making techniques are compared on the basis of energy and exergy performance criteria including charging, discharging and storage efficiencies, which make up the ice storage and retrieval process. Losses due to heat leakage and irreversibilities from entropy generation are included. A vapor-compression refrigeration cycle with R134a as the working fluid provides the cooling load, while the analysis is performed in both a full storage and partial storage process, with comparisons between these two. In the case of full storage, the energy efficiencies associated with the charging and discharging processes are well over 98% in all cases, while the exergy efficiencies ranged from 46% to 76% for the charging cycle and 18% to 24% for the discharging cycle. For the partial storage systems, all energy and exergy efficiencies were slightly less than that for full storage, due to the increasing effect wall heat leakage has on the decreased storage volume and load. The results show that energy analyses alone do not provide much useful insight into system behavior, since the vast majority of losses in all processes are a result of entropy generation which results from system irreversibilities.     

NEXT GENERATION ENGINEERED MATERIALS FOR ULTRA SUPERCRITICAL STEAM TURBINES

正1 ABSTRACT To reduce the effect of global warming on our climate,the levels of CO2emissions should be reduced.One way to do this is to increase the efficiency of electricity production from fossil fuels.This will in turn reduce the amount of CO2emissions for a given power output.Using US practice for efficiency calculations,then a move from a typical US plant running at 37%efficiency to a 760℃/38.5 MPa(1 400/5 580 psi)plant running at 48%efficiency would reduce CO2emissions by 170kg/MW.hr or 25%.     

Effect of co-cultivation of Chlamydomonas reinhardtii with Azotobacter chroococcum on hydrogen production

Chlamydomonas reinhardtii cc124 and Azotobacter chroococcum bacteria were co-cultured with a series of volume ratios and under a variety of light densities to determine the optimal culture conditions and to investigate the mechanism by which co-cultivation improves H₂ yield. The results demonstrated that the optimal culture conditions for the highest H₂ production of the combined system were a 1:40 vol ratio of bacterial cultures to algal cultures under 200 μE m^?2 s^?1. Under these conditions, the maximal H₂ yield was 255 μmol mg^?1 Chl, which was approximately 15.9-fold of the control. The reasons for the improvement in H₂ yield included decreased O₂ content, enhanced algal growth, and increased H₂ase activity and starch content of the combined system.     

Aerodynamic performance effects of leading-edge geometry in gas-turbine blades

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the advantages of the direct surface-curvature distribution blade-design method, originally proposed by Korakianitis, for the leading-edge design of turbine blades, and by extension for other types of airfoil shapes. The leading edge shape is critical in the blade design process, and it is quite difficult to completely control with inverse, semi-inverse or other direct-design methods. The blade-design method is briefly reviewed, and then the effort is concentrated on smoothly blending the leading edge shape (circle or ellipse, etc.) with the main part of the blade surface, in a manner that avoids leading-edge flow-disturbance and flow-separation regions. Specifically in the leading edge region we return to the second-order (parabolic) construction line coupled with a revised smoothing equation between the leading-edge shape and the main part of the blade. The Hodson–Dominy blade has been used as an example to show the ability of this blade-design method to remove leading-edge separation bubbles in gas turbine blades and other airfoil shapes that have very sharp changes in curvature near the leading edge. An additional gas turbine blade example has been used to illustrate the ability of this method to design leading edge shapes that avoid leading-edge separation bubbles at off-design conditions. This gas turbine blade example has inlet flow angle 0°, outlet flow angle −64.3°, and tangential lift coefficient 1.045, in a region of parameters where the leading edge shape is critical for the overall blade performance. Computed results at incidences of −10°,   −5°,   +5°,   +10° are used to illustrate the complete removal of leading edge flow-disturbance regions, thus minimizing the possibility of leading-edge separation bubbles, while concurrently minimizing the stagnation pressure drop from inlet to outlet. These results using two difficult example cases of leading edge geometries illustrate the superiority and utility of this blade-design method when compared with other direct or inverse blade-design methods.     

Natural-gas fueled spark-ignition (SI) and compression-ignition (CI) engine performance and emissions

Natural gas is a fossil fuel that has been used and investigated extensively for use in spark-ignition (SI) and compression-ignition (CI) engines. Compared with conventional gasoline engines, SI engines using natural gas can run at higher compression ratios, thus producing higher thermal efficiencies but also increased nitrogen oxide (NO_x) emissions, while producing lower emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂), unburned hydrocarbons (HC) and carbon monoxide (CO). These engines also produce relatively less power than gasoline-fueled engines because of the convergence of one or more of three factors: a reduction in volumetric efficiency due to natural-gas injection in the intake manifold; the lower stoichiometric fuel/air ratio of natural gas compared to gasoline; and the lower equivalence ratio at which these engines may be run in order to reduce NO_x emissions. High NO_x emissions, especially at high loads, reduce with exhaust gas recirculation (EGR). However, EGR rates above a maximum value result in misfire and erratic engine operation. Hydrogen gas addition increases this EGR threshold significantly. In addition, hydrogen increases the flame speed of the natural gas-hydrogen mixture. Power levels can be increased with supercharging or turbocharging and intercooling. Natural gas is used to power CI engines via the dual-fuel mode, where a high-cetane fuel is injected along with the natural gas in order to provide a source of ignition for the charge. Thermal efficiency levels compared with normal diesel-fueled CI-engine operation are generally maintained with dual-fuel operation, and smoke levels are reduced significantly. At the same time, lower NO_x and CO₂ emissions, as well as higher HC and CO emissions compared with normal CI-engine operation at low and intermediate loads are recorded. These trends are caused by the low charge temperature and increased ignition delay, resulting in low combustion temperatures. Another factor is insufficient penetration and distribution of the pilot fuel in the charge, resulting in a lack of ignition centers. EGR admission at low and intermediate loads increases combustion temperatures, lowering unburned HC and CO emissions. Larger pilot fuel quantities at these load levels and hydrogen gas addition can also help increase combustion efficiency. Power output is lower at certain conditions than diesel-fueled engines, for reasons similar to those affecting power output of SI engines. In both cases the power output can be maintained with direct injection. Overall, natural gas can be used in both engine types; however further refinement and optimization of engines and fuel-injection systems is needed.     

Exergetic evaluation of 5 biowastes-to-biofuels routes via gasification

This paper presents the exergy analysis results for the production of several biofuels, i.e., SNG (synthetic natural gas), methanol, Fischer–Tropsch fuels, hydrogen, as well as heat and electricity, from several biowastes generated in the Dutch province of Friesland, selected as one of the typical European regions. Biowastes have been classified in 5 virtual streams according to their ultimate and proximate analysis. All production chains have been modeled in Aspen Plus in order to analyze their technical performance. The common steps for all the production chains are: pre-treatment, gasification, gas cleaning, water–gas-shift reactions, catalytic reactors, final gas separation and upgrading. Optionally a gas turbine and steam turbines are used to produce heat and electricity from unconverted gas and heat removal, respectively. The results show that, in terms of mass conversion, methanol production seems to be the most efficient process for all the biowastes. SNG synthesis is preferred when exergetic efficiency is the objective parameter, but hydrogen process is more efficient when the performance is analyzed by means of the 1st Law of Thermodynamics. The main exergy losses account for the gasification section, except in the electricity and heat production chain, where the combined cycle is less efficient.     

Controls on the Karaha–Telaga Bodas geothermal reservoir,Indonesia

Karaha–Telaga Bodas is a partially vapor-dominated, fracture-controlled geothermal system located adjacent to Galunggung Volcano in western Java, Indonesia. The geothermal system consists of: (1) a caprock, ranging from several hundred to 1600 m in thickness, and characterized by a steep, conductive temperature gradient and low permeability; (2) an underlying vapor-dominated zone that extends below sea level; and (3) a deep liquid-dominated zone with measured temperatures up to 353 °C. Heat is provided by a tabular granodiorite stock encountered at about 3 km depth. A structural analysis of the geothermal system shows that the effective base of the reservoir is controlled either by the boundary between brittle and ductile deformational regimes or by the closure and collapse of fractures within volcanic rocks located above the brittle/ductile transition. The base of the caprock is determined by the distribution of initially low-permeability lithologies above the reservoir; the extent of pervasive clay alteration that has significantly reduced primary rock permeabilities; the distribution of secondary minerals deposited by descending waters; and, locally, by a downward change from a strike-slip to an extensional stress regime. Fluid-producing zones are controlled by both matrix and fracture permeabilities. High matrix permeabilities are associated with lacustrine, pyroclastic, and epiclastic deposits. Productive fractures are those showing the greatest tendency to slip and dilate under the present-day stress conditions. Although the reservoir appears to be in pressure communication across its length, fluid, and gas chemistries vary laterally, suggesting the presence of isolated convection cells.     

Hydrogen production by steam-gasification of carbonaceous materials using concentrated solar energy – V. Reactor modeling,optimization, and scale-up

A chemical reactor for the steam-gasification of carbonaceous particles (e.g. coal, coke) is considered for using concentrated solar radiation as the energy source of high-temperature process heat. A two-phase reactor model that couples radiative, convective, and conductive heat transfer to the chemical kinetics is applied to optimize the reactor geometrical configuration and operational parameters (feedstock's initial particle size, feeding rates, and solar power input) for maximum reaction extent and solar-to-chemical energy conversion efficiency of a 5 kW prototype reactor and its scale-up to 300 kW. For the 300 kW reactor, complete reaction extent is predicted for an initial feedstock particle size up to 35 μm at residence times of less than 10 s and peak temperatures of 1818 K, yielding high-quality syngas with a calorific content that has been solar-upgraded by 19% over that of the petcoke gasified.