Model‐based Multivariate Monitoring Charts for Autocorrelated Processes

Autocorrelation or nonstationarity may seriously impact the performance of conventional Hotelling's T² charts. We suggest modeling processes with multivariate autoregressive integrated moving average time series models and propose two model‐based monitoring charts. One monitors the predicted value and provides information about the need for mean adjustments. The other is a Hotelling's T² control chart applied to the residuals. The average run length performance of the residual‐based Hotelling's T² chart is compared with the observed data‐based Hotelling's T² chart for a group of first‐order vector autoregressive models. We show that the new chart in most cases performs well. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Control Chart

A multivariate extension of the exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart is presented, and guidelines given for designing this easy-to-implement multivariate procedure. A comparison shows that the average run length (ARL) performance of this chart is similar to that of multivariate cumulative sum (CUSUM) control charts in detecting a shift in the mean vector of a multivariate normal distribution. As with the Hotelling's χ² and multivariate CUSUM charts, the ARL performance of the multivariate EWMA chart depends on the underlying mean vector and covariance matrix only through the value of the noncentrality parameter. Worst-case scenarios show that Hotelling's χ² charts should always be used in conjunction with multivariate CUSUM and EWMA charts to avoid potential inertia problems. Examples are given to illustrate the use of the proposed procedure.     

Hotelling's T2 control charts with fixed and variable sample sizes for monitoring short production runs

Short production runs are common in enterprises that require a high degree of flexibility and variety in manufacturing processes. To date, past research on short production runs has little focus on the multivariate control charts. In view of this, fixed sample size (FSS) and variable sample size (VSS) Hotelling's T² charts are designed to monitor the process mean when the production horizon is finite. Optimal parameters to minimize the out‐of‐control (1) truncated average run length (TARL) and (2) expected TARL (ETARL) are provided such that the in‐control TARL is equal to the number of inspections (say I). The numerical study considers the run length performances of the FSS and VSS T² short‐run charts for both known and unknown shift sizes. The VSS T² short‐run chart performs well in swiftly detecting various mean shifts in comparison with the FSS T² short‐run chart. Additionally, the VSS T² short‐run chart is superior to the FSS T² short‐run chart, in terms of the truncated standard deviation of the run length, expected truncated standard deviation of the run length, probability that the chart signals an alarm within the I inspections, ie, P(I) and expected P(I). A case study on the impurity profile of a crystalline drug substance illustrates the implementation of the VSS T² short‐run chart.     

New sampling strategies to reduce the effect of autocorrelation on the synthetic T2 chart to monitor bivariate process

In this paper, synthetic T² chart is developed to monitor bivariate process with correlated variables and autocorrelated observations. The proposed chart is a combination of the Hotelling's T² chart and the conforming run length chart. The operation and design of the chart are described when observations are autocorrelated and cross correlated. The first‐order vector autoregressive process VAR (1) is used to model the bivariate data from an autocorrelated process of interest. Using an average run length as performance measure criterion in the VAR (1) model, it is observed that autocorrelation seriously impact the performance of the synthetic T² chart. To reduce the effect of autocorrelation on the performance of the synthetic T² chart, the skip and mixed sampling strategies are implemented to form rational subgroups in the construction of synthetic T² chart. The average run length performance of the synthetic T² chart implementing these strategies is compared with that of the standard strategy of formation of rational subgroups. It is observed that implementing skip and mixed sampling strategies within rational subgroup improves the performance of the synthetic T² chart.     

Design and implementation of qth quantile‐unbiased tr‐chart for monitoring times between events

The times between events control charts have been proposed in literature for statistical monitoring of high‐yield processes by observing the waiting times up to r ^th (r ≥ 1  ) non‐conforming items or defects. The average run length (ARL) is the most widely used performance measure to evaluate the chart's performance, but in recent years, it has been subjected to criticisms. Because the run length distribution is highly skewed and hence, the ARL is not necessarily a typical value of the run length. Thus, evaluation of the control chart based on ARL alone could be misleading. In this paper, the quantiles of run length distribution are considered, instead of ARL, to design the t_r ‐chart. Further, we eliminate the bias in q ^th quantile function of the t_r ‐chart for both the known and unknown parameter case. In particular, the MRL‐unbiased t_r ‐chart is discussed in detail and compared with the ARL‐unbiased t_r ‐chart. It is found that the MRL‐unbiased t_r ‐chart outperforms than the corresponding ARL‐unbiased chart in unknown parameter case. It is also found that the proposed chart requires less phase I observations than that of the earlier studies has been suggested.     

A New Synthetic Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Control Chart for Monitoring Process Dispersion

Exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control charts have been widely recognized as a potentially powerful process monitoring tool of the statistical process control because of their excellent speed in detecting small to moderate shifts in the process parameters. Recently, new EWMA and synthetic control charts have been proposed based on the best linear unbiased estimator of the scale parameter using ordered ranked set sampling (ORSS) scheme, named EWMA‐ORSS and synthetic‐ORSS charts, respectively. In this paper, we extend the work and propose a new synthetic EWMA (SynEWMA) control chart for monitoring the process dispersion using ORSS, named SynEWMA‐ORSS chart. The SynEWMA‐ORSS chart is an integration of the EWMA‐ORSS chart and the conforming run length chart. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations are used to estimate the run length performances of the proposed control chart. A comprehensive comparison of the run length performances of the proposed and the existing powerful control charts reveals that the SynEWMA‐ORSS chart outperforms the synthetic‐R, synthetic‐S, synthetic‐D, synthetic‐ORSS, CUSUM‐R, CUSUM‐S, CUSUM‐ln S², EWMA‐ln S² and EWMA‐ORSS charts when detecting small shifts in the process dispersion. A similar trend is observed when the proposed control chart is constructed under imperfect rankings. An application to a real data is also provided to demonstrate the implementation and application of the proposed control chart. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Double sampling hotelling's T2 charts

Two double sampling T² charts are discussed. They only differ in how the second sample is used to suggest to the practitioner the state of the process. An optimal method using a genetic algorithm is given for designing these charts based on the average run length (ARL). An analytical method is used to determine run length performance of the chart. Comparisons are made with various other control charting procedures. Some recommendations are given. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Practitioner advice: ERLDAT–A web-based tool to design and analyze EWMA control charts

The performance of a control chart is completely characterized by its run length distribution. Quality practitioners usually do not have access to the run length distribution but rely on the average run length (ARL) to design and evaluate the performance of an exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart. This article presents a web-based tool that provides users easy access to the Phase 2 (online or monitoring phase) run length distribution for a two-sided EWMA control chart with known parameters. The web-based tool calculates the run length distribution, percentiles of the run length distribution, as well as the mean (ARL) and variance (VRL) of the run length distribution. Additional functionality of the web-based tool includes plotting the run length distribution functions, building tables of the quantiles of the run length distribution, finding the smoothing parameter (λ) for an EWMA control chart for fixed control limit that satisfies ARL, VRL or percentile performance, and finding the control chart limit (k) for an EWMA control chart that satisfies ARL, VRL, or percentile performance. This tool and these techniques enable quality practitioners to better design and evaluate EWMA control charts.     

Nonparametric Synthetic Control Charts for Process Variation

In this article, we propose nonparametric synthetic and side‐sensitive synthetic control charts for controlling fraction nonconforming due to increase in the process variation. Synthetic control chart is a combination of sign and conforming run length control charts. We compare performance of the proposed control charts with the Shewhart sign and S² charts. Our performance study shows that the proposed control charts have a higher power of detecting out‐of‐control signal. We also study the steady‐state behavior of a nonparametric synthetic control chart. We present a Markov chain model to evaluate the steady‐state average run length of the synthetic and side‐sensitive synthetic control charts. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Design of the S2 Control Charts Based on Conditional Performance via Exact Methods

In this paper, we consider the conditional performance of the equal‐tailed and average run lengths (ARL)‐unbiased two‐sided S² charts when the in‐control variance of a normal process is estimated. We derive the exact probability distributions of the conditional ARL for the two S² charts. Then we evaluate the performance of each S² chart in terms of the percentiles, mean and standard deviation of the conditional in‐control ARL distribution. Because the parameter estimation seriously affects the conditional performance of these S² charts, we propose an exact method to design the equal‐tailed and ARL‐unbiased S² charts with desired conditional in‐control performance. The results indicate that the new ARL‐unbiased S² chart has far smaller standard deviation ARL values and the unconditional ARL values are more close to the desired value than the corresponding new equal‐tailed S² chart. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Design of the ARL‐Unbiased S2 Chart When the In‐Control Variance Is Estimated

The S² chart has been known as a powerful tool to monitor the variability of the normal process. When the variance of the process is unknown, it needs to be estimated by Phase I samples. It is well known that there are serious effects of parameter estimation on the performance of the S² chart based on known parameter assumption. If the effects of parameter estimation are not considered, it can lead to an increase in the number of false alarms and a reduction in the ability of the chart to detect process changes except for very small shifts in the variance. Based on the criterion of average run length (ARL) unbiased, a S² control chart is developed when the in‐control variance is estimated. The performance of the proposed control chart is also evaluated in terms of the ARL and standard deviation of the run length. Finally, an example is used to illustrate the proposed control chart. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of constructed bivariate copulas on multivariate control charts effectiveness

The average control chart monitors the shifts in the process. The familiar multivariate control charts are used to detect the mean vector of the process such as multivariate cumulative sum (MCUSUM) and Hotelling's T² control charts. In this paper, the effects of constructing bivariate copulas on multivariate control charts, that is, MCUSUM and Hotelling's T² control charts are intensively investigated when observations are drawn from the exponential distribution. Moreover, the dependence levels of observations are classified to be weak, moderate, and strong in both positive and negative values by Kendall's tau. The numerical results were obtained by Monte Carlo simulation to explore the average run length (ARL). The simulation results show that the performance of Hotelling's T² control chart is superior to the MCUSUM control chart for all shifts in the mean vector of process. Furthermore, from applying the presented control chart to two sets of real data, data set of the strength of 1.5 cm glass fibers measured at the National Physical Laboratory, England and data set of the strength of glass of the aircraft window, it was found that for a small shift ($\delta \le 0.1$), the MCUSUM control chart is better than Hotelling's T² control chart.     

A new approach to setting control limits of cumulative count of conforming charts for high‐yield processes

Cumulative count of conforming (CCC‐r) charts are usually used to monitor non‐conforming fraction p in high‐yield processes. Existing approaches to setting the control limits may cause non‐maximal or biased in‐control average run length (ARL). Non‐maximal in‐control ARL implies that the chart might not quickly detect the upward shift of p from its nominal value p₀. On the other hand, biased in‐control ARL means that both the in‐control and out‐of‐control ARLs are inflated. This paper develops a new approach to setting control limits for CCC‐r charts with near‐maximal and near‐unbiased in‐control ARL. Experimental results show that the proposed approach is effective in terms of the maximization and unbiasedness of in‐control ARL. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An overview of synthetic‐type control charts: Techniques and methodology

In this paper, we provide an overview of a class of control charts called the synthetic charts. Synthetic charts are a combination of a traditional chart (such as a Shewhart, CUSUM, or EWMA chart) and a conforming run‐length (CRL) chart. These charts have been considered in order to maintain the simplicity and improve the performance of small and medium‐sized shift detection of the traditional Shewhart charts. We distinguish between different types of synthetic‐type charts currently available in the literature and highlight how each is designed and implemented in practice. More than 100 publications on univariate and multivariate synthetic‐type charts are reviewed here. We end with some concluding remarks and a list of some future research ideas.     

An assessment of the kernel‐distance‐based multivariate control chart through an industrial application

Traditional multivariate quality control charts assume that quality characteristics follow a multivariate normal distribution. However, in many industrial applications the process distribution is not known, implying the need to construct a flexible control chart appropriate for real applications. A promising approach is to use support vector machines in statistical process control. This paper focuses on the application of the ‘kernel‐distance‐based multivariate control chart’, also known as the ‘k‐chart’, to a real industrial process, and its assessment by comparing it to Hotelling's T² control chart, based on the number of out‐of‐control observations and on the Average Run Length. The industrial application showed that the k‐chart is sensitive to small shifts in mean vector and outperforms the T² control chart in terms of Average Run Length. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Effect of Autocorrelation on the Hotelling T2 Control Chart

One of the basic assumptions for traditional univariate and multivariate control charts is that the data are independent in time. For the latter, in many cases, the data are serially dependent (autocorrelated) and cross‐correlated because of, for example, frequent sampling and process dynamics. It is well known that the autocorrelation affects the false alarm rate and the shift‐detection ability of the traditional univariate control charts. However, how the false alarm rate and the shift‐detection ability of the Hotelling T² control chart are affected by various autocorrelation and cross‐correlation structures for different magnitudes of shifts in the process mean is not fully explored in the literature. In this article, the performance of the Hotelling T² control chart for different shift sizes and various autocorrelation and cross‐correlation structures are compared based on the average run length using simulated data. Three different approaches in constructing the Hotelling T² chart are studied for two different estimates of the covariance matrix: (i) ignoring the autocorrelation and using the raw data with theoretical upper control limits; (ii) ignoring the autocorrelation and using the raw data with adjusted control limits calculated through Monte Carlo simulations; and (iii) constructing the control chart for the residuals from a multivariate time series model fitted to the raw data. To limit the complexity, we use a first‐order vector autoregressive process and focus mainly on bivariate data. © 2014 The Authors. Quality and Reliability Engineering International Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

Computing the Percentage Points of the Run-Length Distributions of Multivariate CUSUM Control Charts

Multivariate CUSUM control charts are often used instead of the standard Hotelling's control charts in many practical problems when detection of small shifts in the process mean is important. However, design of multivariate CUSUM control charts are usually based on the average run length (ARL). In this work, we will compute the percentage points of the run-length distributions of two multivariate CUSUM control charts. It will be shown that interpretations based on ARL can be misleading since the in-control run-length distribution of a multivariate CUSUM is highly skewed. On the other hand, the percentage points of the run-length distribution provide additional information such as the median run length, early false out-of-control signals, and the skewness of the run-length distribution for a particular scheme. These extra information might provide quality control engineers further knowledge of a particular multivariate CUSUM control chart scheme.     

A hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average control chart for process monitoring

Several modifications and enhancements to control charts in increasing the performance of small and moderate process shifts have been introduced in the quality control charting techniques. In this paper, a new hybrid control chart for monitoring process location is proposed by combining two homogeneously weighted moving average (HWMA) control charts. The hybrid homogeneously weighted moving average (HHWMA) statistic is derived using two smoothing constants λ₁ and λ₂ . The average run length (ARL) and the standard deviation of the run length (SDRL) values of the HHWMA control chart are obtained and compared with some existing control charts for monitoring small and moderate shifts in the process location. The results of study show that the HHWMA control chart outperforms the existing control charts in many situations. The application of the HHWMA chart is demonstrated using a simulated data.     

A synthetic double sampling control chart for process mean using auxiliary information

A control chart is a simple yet powerful tool that is extensively adopted to monitor shifts in the process mean. In recent years, auxiliary‐information–based (AIB) control charts have received considerable attention as these control charts outperform their counterparts in monitoring changes in the process parameter(s). In this article, we integrate the conforming run length chart with the existing AIB double sampling (AIB DS) chart to propose an AIB synthetic DS chart for the process mean. The AIB synthetic DS chart also encompasses the existing synthetic DS chart. A detailed discussion on the construction, optimization, and evaluation of the run length profiles is provided for the proposed control chart. It is found that the optimal AIB synthetic DS chart significantly outperforms the existing AIB Shewhart, optimal AIB synthetic, and AIB DS charts in detecting various shifts in the process mean. An illustrative example is given to demonstrate the implementation of the existing and proposed AIB control charts.     

Alternative Hotelling's T2 Charts using Winsorized Modified One‐Step M‐estimator

Hotelling's T² chart is a popular tool for monitoring statistical process control. However, this chart is sensitive in the presence of outliers. To alleviate the problem, this paper proposed alternative Hotelling's T² charts for individual observations using robust location and scale matrix instead of the usual mean vector and the covariance matrix, respectively. The usual mean vector in the Hotelling T² chart is replaced by the winsorized modified one‐step M‐estimator (MOM) whereas the usual covariance matrix is replaced by the winsorized covariance matrix. MOM empirically trims the data based on the shape of the data distribution. This study also investigated on the different trimming criteria used in MOM. Two robust scale estimators with highest breakdown point, namely S_n and T_n were selected to suit the criteria. The upper control limits for the proposed robust charts were calculated based on simulated data. The performance of each control chart is based on the false alarm and the probability of outlier's detection. In general, the performance of an alternative robust Hotelling's T² charts is better than the performance of the traditional Hotelling's T² chart. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.