基于风险偏好的PPP项目风险分担博弈模型

基于风险偏好,在参与双方对彼此的信息、偏好都了解的情况下,运用完全信息静态博弈模拟解决由单方承担的风险问题。对于需要双方共担的风险则运用完全信息动态博弈模型——讨价还价模型,由此确定双方的最优分担比例。运用博弈的相关知识构建PPP项目中的风险分担模型,尤其当双方需要共同分担某一风险时,通过求解动态博弈的纳什均衡得出较为合理的风险分担比例。     

政府偏好与中国技术创新

本文考察政府偏好变迁过程对中国技术创新路径选择的影响,解释何以在相当一段时期内中国的高速经济增长与低技术创新水平相伴随。本文认为各级政府与公众间的博弈行为使得创新资源(资金和政策支持)的投入存在着三个不同阶段,在前两个阶段中,一些因素会阻碍原创性技术创新的出现。但是,政府偏好本身是内生于经济增长的,也是一个动态变化的过程。在经济发展到第三阶段后,利益各方博弈结果会促使政府创新资金向原创性技术创新集中,实现真正创新水平的提高,进而形成独特的中国技术创新路径。     

基于公平偏好的公共文化 PPP 项目政府补偿研究

鉴于公共文化 PPP 项目收益性弱、对私人部门吸引力不足的特点,将私人部门公平偏好引入公共文化 PPP 项目的政府补偿机制设计,构建了以政府为主导的两阶段公私 Stackelberg 博弈模型。 以柳州某文化广场 PPP 项目为例分析了私人部门公平偏好对其初始投资决策、最优投资决策及政府补偿的影响。结果表明:博弈的第一阶段中政府初步许诺的运营期补偿力度较小,私人部门公平偏好与其初始决策投资呈正比;第二阶段确定补偿力度时,政府承诺收入率与私人部门期望收入率之差超过其参照点时,若私人部门公平偏好越高,要求政府最优运营期补偿力度越大,项目最优投资规模亦越大。研究结果可为公共文化 PPP 项目的补偿设计提供理论依据。     

基于风险偏好的PPP项目期权博弈研究

公私合营(PPP)模式在基础设施建设项目中已得到了广泛的应用,合理的政府担保对促成政府部门和投资者协议的达成起到至关重要的作用。政府担保实质上是一种看跌期权,然而该提供多少担保,如何使项目风险在政府部门和投资者之间得到合理的分配成为了决定项目成败的关键因素之一。在实物期权理论基础上,采用讨价还价博弈理论,基于政府部门和投资者不同的风险偏好,对政府担保的期权价值进行了分配,同时建立了PPP项目超额收益分配原则。数值模拟说明投资者的风险偏好与政府提供的担保量呈负相关,与超额收益分配呈正相关。     

互惠视角下污水处理PPP项目激励机制研究

随着城市化进程的不断推进,城市自然水环境面临巨大压力,扩建污水处理厂成为当务之急,公私伙伴关系(PPP)广泛应用于世界各地的污水处理项目。在传统经济学中,项目参与者常常被认为是完全理性的,自身利益最大化是其行为的基础。创新性建立、讨论和分析具有互惠主义性质的委托代理模型,深入了解互惠偏好对政府的动态补偿率、社会资本的努力程度和双方利益的影响。结果表明,双方在合理的互惠信念支持下,主动让渡一些短期利益能够增强彼此信任,调动合作的积极性,最终实现双赢。     

异质性偏好视角下的PPP 项目控制权分配研究

以现实情况为基础,将PPP 项目的私营部门区分为专业公司和纯投资者,并依据现有研究将控制权划分为28 项具体权利。针对各参与者对同一控制权收益喜好程度的不同,引入控制权偏好的概念。据此构建PPP 项目控制权最优随机合作博弈模型,实现控制权依据参与者控制权偏好在双方之间进行转移,并确定控制权最优分配比例,最终实现合作效率最大化。     

垄断市场下平台企业的绑售策略研究

通过建立两阶段完全信息动态博弈模型,研究在垄断市场下绑售策略是如何影响平台企业的定价、消费者和商家的数量以及平台的利润水平。研究发现,在不考虑消费者偏好差异性的情况下,当平台企业允许商家实施捆绑策略时,无论是非强制性还是强制性,平台企业都会降低对消费者的定价,提高对商家的定价,此时商家数量均会增加,但前者会使消费者人数与平台利润增加;后者会使消费者人数减少,平台利润变化并不确定。在考虑消费者偏好差异性的情况下,只要满足消费者中偏好绑售的人数大于厌恶绑售的人数,消费者和商家的人数就会增加,而且平台对于买卖双方的定价与他们的交叉网络外部性呈负相关。     

多标段工程项目综合激励的公平性契约设计

针对多标段工程项目的综合激励问题,结合公平性偏好理论,建立了业主-多承包商之间的博弈模型.业主的激励目标包括成本、工期和质量.承包商的成本信息为该承包商和业主所共享,对其他承包商来说是私有信息,因此承包商之间的公平性偏好比较仅存在于缩短工程工期和提高工程质量所得到的激励收入值.工期成本、质量成本之间存在一定的数量关系,根据这些数量关系可建立完整的博弈模型.     

基于私营部门违约的PPP项目强互惠行为分析——以环境治理为例

当PPP项目中对于私营部门违约行为很难形成完全约束时,极易导致项目的负外部性,进而影响公共利益。以环境治理为例,引用强互惠理论,设置公私异质性偏好、私营部门机会主义倾向的双参照点对私营部门在PPP项目中的违约行为进行分析。得出在PPP项目中存在私营部门亲自我者的角色,以及政府部门亲社会者的角色,而且政府部门具有惩罚利他的强互惠行为。对PPP项目中强互惠行为进行初始博弈和动态博弈分析,指出政府部门对私营部门的违约行为实施严厉的惩罚会使双方处于合作区间,进而有效避免触发战略。最后引入环境治理PPP项目案例,验证了政府强互惠行为对于约束私营部门违约行为的有效性。     

行为经济学视角下工程承包商界面行为博弈的演化仿真分析

从行为经济学视角,以城市轨道交通工程为例,分析工程承包商在合同界面处的行为博弈演化机理以及博弈均衡的稳定性。基于行为博弈理论,将工程承包商假设为存在社会偏好的有限理性群体,在合同界面处博弈的行为策略分为“主动利他”“被动利他”和“利己”三类;运用演化博弈理论,以土建施工单位和机电安装单位为例,构建了工程承包商界面行为博弈模型,求得博弈模型的稳定均衡解。通过JAVA 语言编程,对界面行为博弈模型进行仿真模拟,分析验证了不同收益约束条件下博弈双方的稳定均衡策略。结果表明,当合同界面双方均采取主动利他策略时,博弈双方获得的个体收益及总收益均最大。     

Housing Tenure Preferences in the Post-privatisation Period: The Case of Slovenia

The privatisation of social housing transformed many transitional countries in Central and Eastern Europe into societies with predominant homeownership and a marginalised rental sector. The case of Slovenia shows that, despite a low level of government support of homeowners, the homeownership rate has remained at its unsustainably high level and households continue to express strong preferences for homeownership. The paper explores factors explaining current homeownership preferences in Slovenia. A comprehensive model of housing preferences is built. The model follows the proposition that tenure preferences are strongly influenced by general cultural norms and factors characterising the social, economic and political environments. The model is tested using structural equation modelling based on a survey of Slovenian households. The results reveal that the strong preferences for homeownership in Slovenia can be explained by the firm perceptions of the financial advantages of homeownership and by the lack of available rental alternatives.     

基于三方博弈的装配式建筑发展经济激励研究

发展装配式建筑有利于促进建筑业与信息化、工业化深度融合,推动建筑业转型升级。运用博弈论的理论和方法,通过建立政府-建设单位-消费者三方的博弈模型,并对博弈演化结果进行仿真分析,得出在装配式建筑发展过程中,政府应发挥主导作用,从税收优惠、财政补贴和金融扶持等方面对建设单位和消费者进行激励,推动博弈向有利于市场和产业发展的方向演化。     

Exploring the Heterogeneity of Rural Landscape Preferences: An Image-Based Latent Class Approach

Effects of depopulation, farm family income and changes in agricultural practices, etc. have resulted in the abandonment or destruction of traditional mountainous landscapes. An image-based stated choice survey was applied to explore the effects of various landscape change processes on the preferences of a mostly urban sample (N = 410). The 128 digitally generated landscape scenarios represented various kinds and intensities of agricultural and tourism use of a historic terraced area in Austria. Latent class segmentations identified four segments, with different preferences for natural, managerial and social landscape features. While a preference for a more complex, mysterious and natural landscape was found for three segments, one segment preferred more open landscapes. The results indicate that landscape change can affect humans in different ways, and that evolutionary and cultural preference theories are useful in explaining landscape preferences.     

基于三方博弈的住宅性能认定全面推行的激励机制设计

为了解决住宅性能认定全面推行过程中动力不足的问题,加快住宅产业的转型升级,运用博弈论构建了房地产企业与政府、消费者之间的三方博弈模型并进行了求解,并对影响房地产企业和消费者选择的影响因素进行了分析。通过分析发现:政府对房地产企业、消费者的合理补贴,对房地产企业不推行的行政处罚,能激励房地产企业和消费者积极参与。为了促进住宅性能认定的全面推行,从法律法规的完善及专门的政府监管机构的设置、有效的正向和负向激励机制这3 个方面构建了激励机制。     

房地产市场博弈中政府行为及政策选择

近几年来,我国一些大城市房价持续走高,引发了一系列问题。鉴于此,政府出台了一系列的调控政策,但是收效甚微。其中一个主要原因就是在房地产的开发过程中,地方政府和房地产商由于一定程度的共利性而联合起来＂针对＂中央政府[1]。运用博弈理论分析房地产市场博弈中地方政府和中央政府的行为,通过计算得出纳什均衡解。最后提出相应的对策...     

Variation in Housing Design: Identifying Customer Preferences

House builders in different countries are exploring ways to deliver higher levels of customisation in housing design. To create such variety at acceptable cost, it is important to know how potential buyers of new houses prioritise the different elements such as bathroom, kitchen and roof type of a house design. For parts with a great variety, several alternative solutions could be created in advance while parts with a low variety can be produced as standard solutions for all homes, thereby taking advantage of economies of scale. This paper presents the findings of a vignette-based survey about the requirements for customisation among potential buyers of new houses in the Netherlands. Based on the survey, a list of priority housing attributes is derived. This priority listing is of great importance for building developers who offer (or are considering offering) customised housing. Although people generally prefer to have the opportunity to select from options, they will be less inclined to do so if this option also means a considerable increase in price. Therefore, this study also examines the trade-off relationship between the value customers place on variety and the maximum price that can be asked for a customised housing proposition. The paper concludes with implications of the study's findings for evaluating trade-off decisions between standardisation and customisation.     

基于博弈视角和实物期权理论的养老机构 PPP 项目运营补贴机制研究

在人口老龄化大背景下,老年人对机构养老的需求与日俱增,将政府和社会资本合作（PPP）模式与养老机构开发运营相结合,有利于优化养老资源配置,推进普惠养老,具有其可行性和合理性。提出三方共赢的养老机构 PPP 项目政府补贴激励机制,基于讨价还价博弈理论对政府和私人投资者进行收益分配,构建补贴比例计算模型。考虑可变补贴的不确定性所带来的项目潜在价值,引入实物期权理论,构建项目期权价值计算模型,科学测算项目的潜在价值,根据计算结果对项目的特许期进行更为合理的决策。并通过实例验证所构建的补贴机制和特许期计算模型的适用性,为养老机构 PPP 项目的运营机制设计和科学决策提供了方法论的参考。     

Seasonality: Nature,People's Preferences and Urban Planning in Oulunsalo,Finland

Seasonal changes are particularly strong in northern Europe. Daylight, temperature, flora, fauna and landscape change from day to day. We discuss how seasonality exists in nature, is felt by people and is reflected in urban planning. The case study regards Oulunsalo municipality with a population of 9,000 at the northern most Baltic Sea coast in Finland. In 2003 the mean temperature of the coldest month in Oulunsalo was ?16.4 and the warmest +19.5 centigrade. The longest day was 22 hours 3 minutes and the shortest 3 hours and 35 minutes. A survey among the adult Oulunsalo population shows that summer is the best season for the majority of people (72%)—more often for men (78%) than for women (66%). Almost everybody (96%) likes the change of seasons. Seasons and seasonal preferences should be considered more in urban planning processes and land-use plans.     

Evolutionary game theory-based system dynamics modeling for community solid waste classification in China

To increase the utilization rate of renewable resources, China will widely implement solid waste classification in the next few years. However, waste classification in many communities has been placed on hold. This study establishes a multi-player evolutionary game among the government, community, and residents to explore the real reasons for the implementation difficulties. The evolutionary game is simulated by adopting system dynamics to analyze the effectiveness of various strategies on the game process and game equilibrium to provide references for the government to formulate macro policies. We show that fluctuations in a static penalty scheme make formulating effective strategies difficult for the government. By contrast, a dynamic penalty scheme can effectively eliminate fluctuations. Furthermore, the optimal dynamic penalty-subsidy scheme features an ideal evolutionarily stable strategy where the optimal strategy for a community and its residents is to implement the waste classification system and obey the rules, respectively.     

建筑工业化发展的多群体演化博弈与仿真研究

新型建筑工业化具有高质量、低消耗、可循环发展等特征，其推广已上升到国家战略层面。利用演化博弈方法，建立“政府-开发商-银行” 的三方动态演化博弈模型，进行各博弈主体策略的演化稳定性分析，并针对初始状态、奖惩力度、借贷风险和开发成本等对演化结果的影响进行动态仿真。在此基础上， 考虑开发商群体的网络拓扑特征对演化真实性的影响，引入复杂网络理论， 以无标度网络为载体描述开发商个体的连接偏好和决策机制，构建政府监管下的建筑工业化扩散模型，并通过仿真深入研究相关因素对扩散深度的影响作用，最后结合仿真结果给出相应对策建议。