模糊层次分析法和人工神经网络模型在电梯风险评估中的应用

针对特种设备风险评估模型中的人工神经网络(ANN)技术一般采用定量加权平均法. 由于其权值是以专家经验为依据, 导致评估所需时间太长. 针对这个缺点, 建议将模糊层次分析法(F-AHP)和ANN相结合, 用于对电梯的风险评估中. 实验证明用此方法进行评估所用的时间比ANN方法要少, 且评估的准确性没有降低.     

Project delivery system selection of construction projects in China

The suitability of the project delivery system (PDS) selected for a project greatly influences the efficiency to conduct a project. It is not an easy task to select an appropriate PDS as a large amount of ambiguous information exists. The paper aims to develop a PDS selection model to help owners to make a decision. The similar projects are identified through the similarity metrics between the target project to be predicted and those in the database. In addition, some of the indicator values are examined and modified through DEA-BND model, and then they are trained by ANN model to predict an appropriate PDS for the target project. A survey was conducted by postal questionnaire to empirically validate the reliability of the model in China. The indicator system for the selection of an appropriate PDS is established. Through the comparison of results predicted by different models, it is found that the PDS selection model developed in this paper can predict PDS precisely, and shows higher reliability than the ANN model. A PDS selection model is developed by inputting project-specific data, which proves to be more accurate and less dependent on experts’ judgment. Its practical application will benefit the owner’s decision making in the selection of the PDS.     

Mining extremely small data sets with application to software reuse

A serious problem encountered by machine learning and data mining techniques in software engineering is the lack of sufficient data. For example, there are only 24 examples in the current largest data set on software reuse. In this paper, a recently proposed machine learning algorithm is modified for mining extremely small data sets. This algorithm works in a twice‐learning style. In detail, a random forest is trained from the original data set at first. Then, virtual examples are generated from the random forest and used to train a single decision tree. In contrast to the numerous discrepancies between the empirical data and expert opinions reported by previous research, our mining practice shows that the empirical data are actually consistent with expert opinions. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The interactive consensus reaching process with the minimum and uncertain cost in group decision making

The consensus model with the minimum cost (or minimum adjustments or minimum information loss) is a powerful decision tool for consensus building in the group decision making (GDM). In the extant consensus models with the minimum cost, the unit adjustment cost of each expert is assumed to be exactly known, and an optimization-based consensus model is utilized to support the consensus building. In the practical GDM, however, it is difficult to obtain the exact unit adjustment costs, and the unit adjustment costs of experts are often uncertain. Moreover, we argue that the consensus cannot be achieved directly using the established optimization-based consensus model, because the consensus building is an interactive process that needs the participation of experts. This paper proposes an interactive consensus reaching process with the minimum and uncertain cost. In the consensus reaching process, an optimization-based consensus model with the uncertain unit cost is constructed to obtain the optimal adjusted opinions of experts. Then, the costs/resources are provided for experts to modify their opinions, and the obtained optimal adjusted opinions are used as a reference for the opinions-modifying in the consensus reaching process. Meanwhile, the unit adjustment costs of experts can be estimated according to the actual situation of the opinions-modifying in the consensus reaching process. The detailed numerical and simulation analysis are conducted to demonstrate the validity of the proposed consensus reaching model.     

证据理论在软件项目风险分析中的应用

软件项目由于其产品的智力密集性和项目的复杂性,在开发过程中,进行风险分析时不同于一般项目有很多客观的指标可供参考,更多地是借助于专家的意见,从而使得专家意见的综合成为软件项目风险分析中一个急需解决的问题。给出了一个基于证据理论的软件项目风险分析模型,通过引入模糊评语集及该集合上的模糊效用值,使用Dempster规则更好地融合各个专家的意见,从而得出了更加合理的风险概率和风险损失评价值。该方法强调了关键专家意见在决策中的重要性,较好地解决了分析结果过于依赖专家选择的问题,从而减少了风险因素量化的复杂性,为风险控制策略的制定提供了依据。并通过算例加以验证。     

Selection of non-traditional machining processes using analytic network process

Non-traditional machining (NTM) processes are now being widely used to generate intricate and accurate shapes in materials, like titanium, stainless steel, high strength temperature resistant (HSTR) alloys, fiber-reinforced composites, ceramics, refractories and other difficult-to-machine alloys having higher strength, hardness, toughness and other diverse material properties. Generation of complex shapes in such materials by the traditional machining processes is experienced to be difficult. For effective utilization of the capabilities of different NTM processes, careful selection of the most suitable process for a given machining application is often required. Selection of the best suited NTM process for a work material and shape feature combination requires the consideration of several criteria. In this paper, an analytic network process (ANP)-based approach is proposed to select the most appropriate NTM process for a given machining application taking into account the interdependency and feedback relationships among various criteria affecting the NTM process selection decision. To avoid the difficult and time consuming mathematical calculations of the ANP, a computer program is also developed in Visual Basic 6.0 with graphical user interface to automate the entire NTM selection decision process. It simply acts as an ANP solver. The observed results from the ANP solver are quite satisfactory and match well with those obtained by the past researchers.     

A framework for SaaS software packages evaluation and selection with virtual team and BOCR of analytic network process

Software packages evaluation and selection is one of the most important activities encountered by software as a service (SaaS) users in the high performance networked computing environment, especially for the small or medium-sized enterprises. In this paper, we propose a framework for SaaS software packages evaluation and selection by combining the virtual team (VT) and the BOCR (benefits, opportunities, costs, and risks) of the analytic network process (ANP). Different from the traditional application of the BOCR model of ANP, the proposed VT-BOCR model attempts to solve the complex ANP model and overloaded pairwise comparisons by decomposing the tasks to four parts, and performed by benefits virtual team (B-VT), opportunities virtual team (O-VT), costs virtual team (C-VT), and risks virtual team (R-VT) separately. The interactive networked media on distributed environments not only makes the proposed framework possible without the limitations of time, space, and human resources, but also can take full advantage of the talent experts who are geographically dispersed. The proposed framework also shows great potentials for aiding practitioners and researchers concerned with the cloud services.     

An expert system based on artificial neural network for predicting the tensile behavior of tailor welded blanks

The forming behavior of tailor welded blanks (TWB) is influenced by thickness ratio, strength ratio, and weld conditions in a synergistic fashion. In most of the cases, these parameters deteriorate the forming behavior of TWB. It is necessary to predict suitable TWB conditions for achieving better-stamped product made of welded blanks. This is quite difficult and resource intensive, requiring lot of simulations or experiments to be performed under varied base material and weld conditions. Automotive sheet part designers will be greatly benefited if an ‘expert system’ is available that can deliver forming behavior of TWB for varied weld and blank conditions. This work primarily aims at developing an artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict the tensile behavior of welded blanks made of steel grade and aluminium alloy base materials. The important tensile characteristics of TWB are predicted within chosen range of varied blank and weld condition. Through out the work, PAM STAMP 2G^® finite element (FE) code is used to simulate the tensile behavior and to generate output data required for training the ANN. Predicted results from ANN model are compared and validated with FE simulation for two different intermediate TWB conditions. It is observed that the results obtained from ANN are encouraging with acceptable prediction errors. An expert system framework is proposed using the trained ANN for designing TWB conditions that will deliver better formed TWB products.     

Personnel selection using analytic network process and fuzzy data envelopment analysis approaches

This paper develops a decision support tool using an integrated analytic network process (ANP) and fuzzy data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach to effectively deal with the personnel selection problem drawn from an electric and machinery company in Taiwan. The current personnel selection procedure is a separate two-stage method. The administration practice shows that the separation between stages 1 and 2 reduces the administration quality and may incur both the top manager’s displeasure and the decision-makers’ depression. An illustrative example by a simulated application demonstrates the implementation of the proposed approach. This example demonstrates how this approach can avoid the main drawback of the current method, and more importantly, can deal with the personnel selection problem more convincingly and persuasively. This study supports the applications of ANP and fuzzy DEA as decision support tools in personnel selection.     

Personnel selection using analytic network process and fuzzy data envelopment analysis approaches

This paper develops a decision support tool using an integrated analytic network process (ANP) and fuzzy data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach to effectively deal with the personnel selection problem drawn from an electric and machinery company in Taiwan. The current personnel selection procedure is a separate two-stage method. The administration practice shows that the separation between stages 1 and 2 reduces the administration quality and may incur both the top manager’s displeasure and the decision-makers’ depression. An illustrative example by a simulated application demonstrates the implementation of the proposed approach. This example demonstrates how this approach can avoid the main drawback of the current method, and more importantly, can deal with the personnel selection problem more convincingly and persuasively. This study supports the applications of ANP and fuzzy DEA as decision support tools in personnel selection.     

Recursive approach to combine expert knowledge and data-driven RSW weldability certification decision making process

Data-driven techniques have shown promising results in the analysis and understanding of complex welding processes. Data analytics play a significant role to turn data into valuable insights to assist in the weldability certification decision-making for Resistance Spot Welding (RSW) as well. However, to successfully perform the associated data analytics, domain knowledge is essential to construct more ‘sense-making’ analytics models, as often the models cannot properly capture the nuances of the domain and do not properly indicate the relationship among the RSW concepts and parameters. Thus, machine learning models developed from rough experimental data often do not provide models meaningful and sensible to the domain expert. In this article, we employ a recursive approach between the domain experts and data-driven models so that the knowledge of the domain experts can be integrated into the weldability certification decision-making process. An ontology-based semantic knowledge framework supports this recursive communication while helping the experts to instil more confidence in the developed analytics models. The collaborative and recursive approach implemented in this study helps the domain experts to tap into their domain knowledge and form expert opinions using the formalized semantic RSW concepts and decision rules. The expert opinions are then used to learn new knowledge about the RSW domain and transform the RSW datasets by incorporating significant features that were not included in the earlier models. The transformed datasets help us to develop improved machine learning models, which in turn work as a new source of semantic knowledge, as we have discovered through our pilot implementation.     

Analytic network process in risk assessment and decision analysis

In risk assessment and decision analysis, the analytical network process (ANP) is widely used to assess the key factors of risks and analyze the impacts and preferences of decision alternatives. There are lots of comparison matrices for a complicated risk assessment problem, but a decision has to be made rapidly in emergency cases. However, in the ANP, the reciprocal pairwise comparison matrices (RPCM) are more complicated and difficult than AHP. The consistency test and the inconsistent elements identification need to be simplified. In this paper, a maximum eigenvalue threshold is proposed as the consistency index for the ANP in risk assessment and decision analysis. The proposed threshold is mathematically equivalent to the consistency ratio (CR). To reduce the times of consistency test, a block diagonal matrix is introduced for the RPCM to conduct consistency tests simultaneously for all comparison matrices. Besides, the inconsistent elements can be identified and adjusted by an induced bias block diagonal comparison matrix. The effectiveness and the simplicity of the proposed maximum eigenvalue threshold consistency test method and the inconsistency identification and adjustment method are shown by two illustrative examples of emergent situations.     

Soft Computing Based Procurement Planning of Time-variable Demand in Manufacturing Systems

Procurement planning with discrete time varying demand is an important problem in Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP).It can be described using the non-analytic mathematical programming model proposed in this paper.To solve the model we propose to use a fuzzy decision embedded genetic algorithm.The algorithm adopts an order strategy selection to simplify the original real optimization problem into binary ones.Then,a fuzzy decision quantification method is used to quantify experience from planning experts.Thus,decision rules can easily be embedded in the computation of genetic operations.This approach is applied to purchase planning problem in a practical machine tool works,where satisfactory results have been achieved.     

Consistency and consensus reaching process for group decision making based on complete interval distributed preference relations under social network analysis

Group decision-making (GDM) problems often consist of many indeterminacy factors in realistic situation. How to cope with consistency and consensus under uncertain circumstance are two critical issues in pairwise comparison based GDM problems. In this paper, we firstly propose the model of complete interval distributed preference relation (CIDPR) based on the concept of linguistic distribution with interval symbolic proportions, distribution linguistic preference relation (DLPR) and IDPR. Secondly, the additive consistency index of CIDPR is defined to measure the consistency level of expert's judgment, and an adjustment algorithm is proposed for converting inconsistent CIDPR to an acceptable consistent level. Thirdly, since trust relation is a critical factor in the generation of experts’ weights and the adjustment of experts’ opinions, consensus reaching process (CRP) is designed to take into account distributed linguistic trust relations under social network analysis (SNA). In the proposed adjustment mechanism, non-consensus individual should modify opinion towards his/her trusted and highly weighted expert. The advantage of the proposed inconsistent CIDPR adjustment model can maximally retain the information in the original distribution, while the CRP has a relatively fast convergent speed and good practicality. An illustrative example of strategic new product selection is conducted to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method and its potential in supporting realistic GDM problems.     

A discrete consensus support model for multiple attribute group decision making

In multiple attribute group decision making (MAGDM), it is preferable that the set of experts reach a high degree of consensus amongst their opinions before applying a selection process. In this paper, we present a discrete model to support the consensus reaching process for MAGDM problems. Firstly, a consensus scheme for a set of arguments is provided, where the basic idea is to tighten the range of opinions amongst experts. Based on the well-defined scheme, a convergent algorithm is presented to autocratically guide experts to reach a predefined consensus level. In the selection process, the maximizing deviation method is applied to determine the attribute weights. Then, the choice of the best alternative(s) from the group decision matrix is obtained by the simple additive weighting method. Finally, one example is presented to show the application and effectiveness of the proposed model.     

Multi-attribute group decision making with opinion dynamics based on social trust network

Social trust network (STN) has facilitated information exchange between experts during interactions. Some feedback mechanisms have been used to provide advices for opinion change to improve their consensus levels. However, they do not consider the experts’ willingness and their self-confidence values. To analyze the influence of the relationship between experts on the decision-making results, this paper proposes a multi-attribute group decision making (MAGDM) with opinion dynamics based on STN. Three stages are included in the proposed approach: trust propagation, consensus reaching process and alternative selection. In the trust propagation stage, the social weight influence matrix and the weights of experts are obtained based on the complete social trust matrix which is constructed by trust aggregation and the given self-confidence values of experts. In the consensus reaching process, the consensus measure is used to determine the consensus between the experts or not, and the feedback mechanism based on opinion dynamics is used to adjust the opinions which do not reach consensus. The appropriate alternative is selected based on the assessable value of the alternative in the selection process. Finally, a numerical experiment about supplier selection is introduced to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed approach and comparison analyses show that the proposed approach can improve efficiency compared with the MAGDM in the social network.     

Regression-based weight generation algorithm in neural network for solution of initial and boundary value problems

This paper introduces a new algorithm for solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with initial or boundary conditions. In our proposed method, the trial solution of differential equation has been used in the regression-based neural network (RBNN) model for single input and single output system. The artificial neural network (ANN) trial solution of ODE is written as sum of two terms, first one satisfies initial/boundary conditions and contains no adjustable parameters. The second part involves a RBNN model containing adjustable parameters. Network has been trained using the initial weights generated by the coefficients of regression fitting. We have used feed-forward neural network and error back propagation algorithm for minimizing error function. Proposed model has been tested for first, second and fourth-order ODEs. We also compare the results of proposed algorithm with the traditional ANN algorithm. The idea may very well be extended to other complicated differential equations.     

Software selection: a case study of the application of the analytical hierarchical process to the selection of a multimedia authoring system

This paper discusses the multimedia processing environment, the applicability of analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in problem solving, and how AHP can be applied to the selection of multimedia authorizing systems (MAS) in a group decision environment. A MAS selection model is proposed to facilitate the group's decision making in the selection of MAS. Six software engineers, who are technically competent and experienced, participated in our study. They were trained to use AHP and then applied this technique to evaluate three MAS products for adoption decision. The results indicated that AHP offers chances for every participant to fully understand, discuss, and objectively evaluate all MAS products before identifying and selecting the most efficient MAS.     

Group decision-making model with incomplete fuzzy preference relations based on additive consistency.

In decision-making problems there may be cases in which experts do not have an in-depth knowledge of the problem to be solved. In such cases, experts may not put their opinion forward about certain aspects of the problem, and as a result they may present incomplete preferences, i.e., some preference values may not be given or may be missing. In this paper, we present a new model for group decision making in which experts' preferences can be expressed as incomplete fuzzy preference relations. As part of this decision model, we propose an iterative procedure to estimate the missing information in an expert's incomplete fuzzy preference relation. This procedure is guided by the additive-consistency (AC) property and only uses the preference values the expert provides. The AC property is also used to measure the level of consistency of the information provided by the experts and also to propose a new induced ordered weighted averaging (IOWA) operator, the AC-IOWA operator, which permits the aggregation of the experts' preferences in such a way that more importance is given to the most consistent ones. Finally, the selection of the solution set of alternatives according to the fuzzy majority of the experts is based on two quantifier-guided choice degrees: the dominance and the nondominance degree.     

Linguistic-labels aggregation and consensus measure for autocratic decision making using group recommendations

Group decision making is a common and important activity in everyday life. In many cases, due to inherent uncertainty, experts cannot express their score or preference using exact numbers. The use of linguistic labels makes expert judgment more reliable and informative for decision-making. One of the problems of group decision making in fuzzy domains is aggregating experts' opinions, expressed using linguistic labels, into a group opinion. This aggregation allows the group to select the most "preferred" alternative from a finite set of candidates. The aggregation of individual judgments into a group opinion requires a measured level of consensus. In this paper, by introducing a new linguistic-labels aggregation operation, we present a procedure for handling an autocratic group decision-making process under linguistic assessments. The methodology presented results in two consequent outcomes: a group-based recommendation, and a score for each expert, reflecting the expert's contribution towards the group recommendation. By changing the weights of the experts based on their contributions, we increase the consensus and reinforce the common decision, without forcing the experts to modify their opinions. This methodology allows an autocratic decision maker to use a diversified group of consultants for a succession of decisions reaching a high level of consensus.