全球城市的可负担住房政策分析及对上海的启示

全球化进入新阶段,人才流动性增强,社会空间极化加剧,全球城市面临相似的住房危机:住房需求增加,房价租金上涨,收入极化加剧,包括中等收入者在内的居民住房负担加重。为了提升城市竞争力和维护社会稳定,许多全球城市重新将"可负担住房"作为住房政策的核心,对迈向全球城市的上海具有借鉴意义。本文基于全球城市理论,关注全球城市如何调整可负担住房政策来应对住房和发展问题;梳理伦敦、纽约和新加坡的可负担住房政策,通过比较分析政策类型和政策得失,总结全球城市可负担住房政策相似的发展趋势和不同的制度条件,以此来评价现阶段上海市保障性住房政策,并根据上海市的制度条件提出针对性建议。     

“拐点”论有以偏概全之嫌

中国房地产指数系统的数据显示,在2007年的最后几个周,北京房价已经开始出现了下降,而且降幅高达两位数.2007年底,北京市平均房价是每平方米15162元,而在12月底,每平方米的价格降为12180元,月环比降幅为19.67%,其中北京东城、西城、崇文、宣武四个内城区房价跌幅更是高达21.59%.而在此前,当广州、深圳等地房价出现下降时,许多北京开发商却宣称北京的房价绝不会下降,而现在京城的房价却出现了高达两位数的跌幅.     

R/S分析对上海二手房房价的趋势判断

以上海二手房房价指数为实证样本,应用R/S分析法研究上海房价波动的长记忆特性,计算得到Hurst指数及关联尺度函数并进而确定了V统计量曲线的转折点。结果表明,上海二手房房价指数每隔2.5年即出现明显转折,证明了上海二手房房价指数存在显著的长记忆特性,未来房价受到现在房价很大的影响,上海二手房房价的可预测性很强,对于帮助工程投资风险的预测有实际的意义。     

切实降低房地产税收负担

我国房价节节攀升，局部上涨过快，不但抑制百姓购房需求，而且成为国民经济发展的潜在危险，不得不重视。最近国家连续出台政策，打击囤地、投机甚至投资行为，加大廉租房、经济适用房、普通商品房建设力度，着力解决低收入人群、棚户区、垦区、工矿区百姓的住房困难问题。但是，在国家着力加强供应的同时，也应该采取切实措施，想方设法降低房地产开发过程中的税费负担，降低购房门槛，是促进房地产消费、扩大内需的重要途径。     

切实降低房地产税费负担

<正>我国房价节节攀升,局部上涨过快,不但抑制百姓购房需求,而且成为国民经济发展的潜在危险,不得不重视。最近国家连续出台政策,打击囤地、投机甚至投资行为,加大廉租房、经济适用房、普通商品房建设力度,着力解决低收入人群、棚户区、垦区、工矿区百姓的住房困难问题。但是,在国家着力加强供应的同时,也应该采取切实措施,想方设法降低房地产开发过程中的税费负担,降低购房门槛,是促进房地产消费、扩大内需的重要途径。     

人口结构对我国城市房价波动的影响

随着房地产业的高速发展,房价问题受到广泛的关注。利用我国人口出生率、自然增长率和城镇化率等数据,分析人口年龄结构和城镇化变化对房价波动的影响,由于20世纪80年代婴儿潮的初次购房叠加了60年代婴儿潮的改善住房需求,2004—2012年房价呈持续上升趋势,90年代以后出生人数下降,导致2013—2015年房价增速放缓,同时城镇化速度的加快会导致房价上涨。并预测2015—2025年由于房屋需求下降,房价将呈下降趋势。     

北京和上海房地产市场走势及内因的比较研究

据相关统计数据显示,上海多个新楼盘明显出现抛盘增加的现象.而北京房价下降,这引起了上海楼市关注,研究表明,此次北京楼市的降价风波,不会对上海楼市特别是上海房价产生实质性影响.毕竟,两地不同的市场环境,使两地在不同的内因驱使之下形成不同的市场走向.     

切实降低房地产税费负担

<正>我国房价节节攀升,局部上涨过快,不但抑制百姓购房需求,而且成为国民经济发展的潜在危险,不得不重视。最近国家连续出台政策,打击囤地、投机甚至投资     

北京住房价格分析

□目前北京市商品房平均售价为每平方米5052元,高出全国平均售价每平方米2758元近1倍。统计显示,2004年北京市房屋销售价格总水平比2003年上涨3.7%,涨幅提高了3.4个百分点。全年商品房销售价格呈逐季上升之势,其中2004年4季度上涨了6.3%,达到7年来最高。有人说,北京的住房价格过高。北京的住房价格真的高吗?北京的房价高在哪里?今后房价会怎么样?     

英国房价逐步走出低谷

英国经济与商业研究中心认为,英国房价将会在经济重陷衰退之前重返2007年的水平。该机构在最新公布的一份报告中指出,房产供应相对需求短缺,房价可负担力及抵押信贷更易获得,都在支撑英国房价。该中心还表示,房屋价格过去两年     

Long-Run Trends in Victorian Housing Affordability and First Transition into Homeownership

The recent house price cycle has highlighted concerns about housing affordability. But is the recent deterioration in housing affordability a short-term problem, or is it a continuation of long-term trends? We take advantage of customised data tables from the Australian Bureau of Statistics Census of Population and Housing to address this question. We focus on the state of Victoria, Australia, by comparing housing affordability and tenure share trends from 1981 to 2001, a period which encompasses two house price booms. Specifically, we look at households by income quintiles and age group in Victoria. We find that housing affordability has deteriorated, particularly for those in the lowest two income quintiles. Most importantly, deterioration is not restricted to one inter-census period. It is a trend that is evident through most inter-census periods from 1981 to 2001. Furthermore, we find that among younger households, those under 35 years of age, the share of home purchasers and outright owners is in long-run decline. The long-run trends in housing affordability pose a serious threat to the homeownership aspirations of younger Victorians.     

京津冀协同发展背景下的保障房与商品房市场耦合协调发展研究

确保京津冀保障房与商品房市场协调发展是实现京津冀协同发展和一体化目标的基础和保障。选取京津冀保障房和商品住房市场作为研究对象,利用主成分分析法和耦合分析法,对 2001~2015 年保障房和商品房市场的综合发展水平指数进行测算与分析。研究结果表明,北京市保障房和商品房市场发展呈平稳上升趋势,发展水平已处于良好协调阶段,但还需要不断增加保障房建设才能满足需求;京津冀区域保障房投入主要集中在北京,与河北省发展呈两极分化趋势;京津冀保障房与商品房市场发展不均衡;相对于保障房建设,北京商品房市场发展超前而保障房滞后。未来在京津冀协同发展背景下,政府应打破户籍和区域限制,缓解北京住房保障压力,使保障房在京津冀范围内跨区域空间流动起来,实现京津冀一体化。     

Affordability of housing and accessibility of public services: evaluation of housing programs in Beijing

Acute housing poverty and low housing affordability among low-to-medium-income households have become challenges in the pursuit of a harmonious society in China. Promoting housing subsidies and stimulating investment on affordable housing have been at the center of China’s housing policy. This paper analyzes the correlation of affordable housing program in Beijing with household affordability of adequate housing and accessibility to public services, which include elementary and middle schools, hospitals and public transportation. Economic and Comfortable Housing is studied based on unique database of eligible household and affordable housing projects. We find that the program fails to make housing affordable and accessible for eligible households. The implications of housing policy design in the context of the economic and social well-being of targeted households are highlighted in the study.     

Factors Shaping the Dynamics of Housing Affordability in Australia 2001–06

This paper investigates factors shaping the dynamics of housing affordability in Australia over the period 2001–06. Panel model findings indicate that those with children and the unwaged are more prone to persistent housing affordability stress. However, residential moves during spells of housing affordability stress alleviate housing cost burdens. Survival in affordable housing has become progressively more difficult over the 2001–06 timeframe, an unsurprising finding given a house price boom over the period of analysis. Residential moves are again influential, but those made by households during a spell in affordable housing are associated with the onset of housing affordability stress.     

Housing price dynamics and bubble risk: the case of Turkey

Abstract

Housing prices have increased substantially in some emerging markets in recent years. Turkish housing market has also experienced a boom over the last decade with rapid house price appreciations. This study is the first to employ two different house price indexes to analyze housing bubble in Turkey in two different time periods, 2010:M1–2014:M12 and 2007:M6–2014:M12. We first capture the determinants of housing price by employing Bounds test and then examine whether rising house prices have been justified by fundamentals by employing OLS/FMOLS/DOLS, Kalman filter and ARIMA models. The Bounds test results suggest that there is a long-term cointegration among house price indexes and housing rent, construction cost and real mortgage interest rate. The results imply that the Turkish housing market has experienced some cases of overvaluation, but not bubble formation. This evidence has several implications for house price dynamics and risks in the Turkish housing market. Based on Turkish experience, the study also draws policy implications for emerging housing markets.     

Housing Careers,House Price Dispersion and the Housing Market Multiplier

Housing markets reflect our housing consumption profile over the life cycle. As we age, marry and have kids, we seek larger dwellings and to a greater extent owner-occupied housing. The up-trading process has two key characteristics: first, it is equity induced. Second, it impacts both the supply and demand sides of housing markets. This is our point of departure. The paper combines a housing ladder with a house price index to show how up-trading amplifies shocks and introduces a multiplier into the housing market. The interplay between market segments results in up-trading induced price dispersion and a price response in the segments on top of the ladder that exceeds those of segments further down, even when shocks are equal across market segments. Finally, as up-trading impacts both housing supply and housing demand, even balanced shocks to net demand might impact house prices. Focusing on different market segments, shocks to demand might have both direct (the size effect) and indirect (the up-trading effect) effects on the house price index. This paper highlights policy options at a finer level when in need of stimulating or dampening house price cycles.     

Why is it important to boost the supply of affordable housing in Australia—and how can we do it?

Housing affordability has fallen in Australia over the past decade, in spite of sustained economic growth in the national economy. This paper argues that this outcome raises serious economic and social questions, especially in relation to the prospects and welfare of younger Australians. A lack of affordable housing has negative consequences for the competitiveness and efficiency of the Australian economy and for the maintenance of social cohesion in society. Existing housing policies, it is also argued, are demonstrably not working to offset or reverse the trend of declining affordability. New policies are required, especially those that would attract more private investment into the affordable end of the housing market. The main part of this paper outlines and critically compares a range of possible models or approaches that have recently been put forward to this end.     

Housing Tenure: Pacific Families in New Zealand

Housing affordability has fallen in Australia over the past decade, in spite of sustained economic growth in the national economy. This paper argues that this outcome raises serious economic and social questions, especially in relation to the prospects and welfare of younger Australians. A lack of affordable housing has negative consequences for the competitiveness and efficiency of the Australian economy and for the maintenance of social cohesion in society. Existing housing policies, it is also argued, are demonstrably not working to offset or reverse the trend of declining affordability. New policies are required, especially those that would attract more private investment into the affordable end of the housing market. The main part of this paper outlines and critically compares a range of possible models or approaches that have recently been put forward to this end.     

城市不同收入家庭住房支付能力研究

住房支付能力度量方法分为比率法和剩余收入法.基于我国住房供应体系,构建了剩余收入法方法论框架,定义了住房支付能力、首付款支付能力、还款(或租金)支付能力等概念.并以2005年我国城市不同收入家庭为实例进行了分析,得出如下结论:低收入到中等收入家庭住房供应不足;低收入家庭对经济波动极为敏感,购房风险大于高收入家庭;低收入以下家庭住房保障有收入扶持和住房补贴两种方式;贷款期限延长,可支付购房家庭比例增加;降低住房面积可缓解我国城市土地开发压力,增加住房覆盖面,提高家庭住房支付能力.本文构建的剩余收入法方法论框架可用于研究不同城市不同收入家庭住房支付能力.     

A Long-Run Model of Housing Affordability

As a result of the recommendations of the Barker Review of Housing Supply in 2004, the Department of Communities and Local Government in England commissioned the construction of an econometric model of regional housing markets in order to examine the effects of different levels of housing construction on long-run affordability. The model has been regularly used as part of the policy-making process in England. The paper describes the structure of the model, which includes sectors covering house prices, household formation, tenure, migration flows, demographics and labour markets. Furthermore, through simulation analysis, the paper examines some of the key policy questions that have occurred in UK housing in recent years.