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分析了油气与经济可持续发展之间的关系，阐明了能源系统的演化规律与趋势,认为在21世纪前期油气在世界能源系统中还将占据主导地位。根据各国石油天然气生产和消费特征，将世界各国划分为3大类型：油气净出口国、油气净进口国、油气生产与进口大国。对比分析了不同类型国家的石油天然气战略之异同点。结果认为：国家要实现油气有效、稳定和价格合理地供给，在油气上下游市场引入竞争机制和推进自由化是必要的；油气基础设施是实现油气供给安全稳定和价格合理的基础，因此要加大油气管线等基础设施的建设，在可能的情况下应鼓励私有资本参与其中；国家政治外交等措施是各国在全球范围内配置油气资源的重要手段。鉴于中国的油气生产与消费情况同美国极为相似，故中国的油气战略制定可以借鉴、参考美国的经验。     

构筑能源大通道

能源安全可靠供应是保障一个国家经济社会长期平稳较快发展的重要基础。我国石油对外依存度已从本世纪初的32%升至57%,进口量的80%经过马六甲海峡,海上运输风险加大,能源安全形势严峻。因此,积极寻求构建新的能源进口通道,推进油气进口战略通道建设,实现油气进口渠道多元化,对于保障国家能源安全至关重要。10年来,我国能源保障格局发生巨大     

China''s First Coal-to-Oil Plant Scheduled on Stream Next Year

China's biggest coal company, the Shenhua group, will start production at its first coal-to-liquid project at the end of next year, a scheme that will supply 1 million tons of oil products a year to North China. The project will be the country's first facility producing oil from coal and has great market potential in China, which relies on coal for about 70 percent of its energy needs and aims to cut the import of high-priced oil.     

Oil and gas cooperation between China and Central Asia in an environment of political and resource competition

This paper investigates Central Asia＇s oil and gas resources, special geopolitics and energy competition, and approaches, challenges and prospects in cooperation between China and Central Asia. The objective is to propose measures for oil and gas cooperation between China and Central Asia. Central Asia is rich in oil and gas resources. Its remaining recoverable reserves of crude oil and natural gas account for 1.9% and 10.6 %, respectively, of the world＇s total reserves. Moreover, there is great exploration and development potential. As a strategic channel connecting Eurasia, Central Asia has a prominent geopolitical status. Many powerful countries such as the United States, Russia and China, as well as Europe, have an intense energy competition in Central Asia. In the oil and gas cooperation with Central Asia, the China National Petroleum Corporation （CNPC） focuses on establishing a coordination group, promoting overall oil and gas business opportunities and sustainable development, innovating and applying specialty engineering technology and improving project economic benefits. Through its efforts over the last nearly two decades, the China National Petroleum Corporation has completed a 50-million-tonne a year oil and gas production centre in Central Asia and oil and gas pipelines passing through multiple countries, becoming an important channel for securing China＇s energy imports. If appropriate measures are taken in the ＇Thirteenth Five-Year Plan＇ period or later, the China National Petroleum Corporation will develop a 100-million-tonne p.a. oil and gas production centre in Central Asia and a strategic oil and gas import channel exceeding this amount of production. This cooperation between China and Central Asia is however faced with the following challenges： increasing multinational competition uncertainty, potential risks in the political systems of Central Asian countries, frequently occurring violence and also resource policy tightening in Central Asia. To further oil and gas cooperation w     

China Facing Five Major Challenges for Energy Development

China's energy development will be confronted with five major challenges in the coming decades, experts said at the International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy (IPHE)Steering Committee in Beijing in late May. The five major challenges include high oil import dependency which threatens the nation's energy security, using coal as the main energy generator, which leads to severe pollution, gigantic energy demands due to growing economic development,global climate change resulting from greenhouse gas emissions, and energy supply and consumption problems in rural areas.     

未来20年中国能源发展构想

中国经济现代化正面对能源的严峻挑战:能源供需矛盾尖锐;转换方式落后,能耗高,效率低;生态环境破坏严重,经济损失巨大。制定中国未来20年能源发展战略必须坚持科学发展观,综合考虑能源与经济、国家安全、社会生态环境和国民健康等诸多因素。我国未来20年应力争建设若干个新的油气能源基地;建立几个稳定的国外原油供应基地;制定促进能源发展的配套政策并建立监督、指导、咨询信息系统;合理调整各类能源在一次性能源消费中的比例;攻克新能源和洁煤关键技术,改革煤能转换方式;大力发展各种类型的水利发电;积极发展核电和新能源;提高水能、新能源、核能在一次性能源消费中的比例。     

Challenges and Opportunities Faced by China''s Energy Industry

The sustainable and rapid development of Chinese economy entails fast growth of energy demand. In recent years, power is in short supply; supply and transportation of coal is tense, causing a price rise;crude oil import increases, and oil price lingers on high end. These phenomena reflecting energy shortage have become people's hot-debated issues in economic life, and public economic regulators and economists have shown unprecedented concerns about the energy-, environment-,and resources-related issues from the sustainable development point of view.     

我国化石能源勘探、开发潜能与未来

当前我国正处在快速工业化、经济腾飞,并步入一个世界科技大国向世界科技强国迈进的前夜,需要大量的资源和能源乃必然的发展轨迹。然而,我国地大但物并不博。为此,在我国快速发展中、在多元共享世界能源的同时,必须立足本土,建立起可靠的、稳定的且能保障长期供给的能源战略后备基地已刻不容缓。研究与分析当今世界和我国油、气、煤等化石能源发展的历程,结果表明:①第二深度空间(5000~10000m)化石能源勘探和开发乃21世纪中叶前后的重要领域,此类能源是一次性能源消费的主体;②非常规油气、特别是页岩油气藏在最大限度地减少污染、强化高新科技应用于降低成本前提下,大力勘探、开发、利用乃未来化石能源发展的必然轨迹;③煤炭、煤层气与煤能转化,制油、煤制气,地下燃烧发电和煤化工产业的研发在能源结构中的主导地位不会改变。基于上述认识,在21世纪中叶前后乃至更长时期内,我国的能源匹配模式应为“第二深度常规油气”+“煤层气与煤能转换”+“非常规页岩气”。     

A review of physical supply and EROI of fossil fuels in China

Abstract This paper reviews China’s future fossil fuel supply from the perspectives of physical output and net energy output. Comprehensive analyses of physical output of fossil fuels suggest that China’s total oil production will likely reach its peak, at about 230 Mt/year (or 9.6 EJ/year), in 2018; its total gas production will peak at around 350 Bcm/year (or 13.6 EJ/year) in 2040, while coal production will peak at about 4400 Mt/year (or 91.9 EJ/year) around 2020 or so. In terms of the forecast production of these fuels, there are significant differences among current studies. These differences can be mainly explained by different ultimately recoverable resources assumptions, the nature of the models used, and differences in the historical production data. Due to the future constraints on fossil fuels production, a large gap is projected to grow between domestic supply and demand, which will need to be met by increasing imports. Net energy analyses show that both coal and oil and gas production show a steady declining trend of EROI (energy return on investment) due to the depletion of shallow-buried coal resources and conventional oil and gas resources, which is generally consistent with the approaching peaks of physical production of fossil fuels. The peaks of fossil fuels production, coupled with the decline in EROI ratios, are likely to challenge the sustainable development of Chinese society unless new abundant energy resources with high EROI values can be found.     

中国天然气供需形势与展望

21世纪以来,中国常规天然气和致密气储量、产量的年增长率由两位百分数降至一位百分数,总体呈降低之势。预计中国天然气产量在2015年有达到1 340×108 m3的可能,如其商品率能达90%,则供应量有达到1 206×108 m3的可能。页岩气开采刚刚起步,在2015年可望有6×108 m3商品气投入供应。煤层气开采量,特别是利用量长期大幅度落后于预定指标,其生产量和利用量的统计存在缺陷;按目前的实际利用量增加趋势推算,2015年其商品气量有达到40×108 Nm3的可能。煤制气的开拓已取得许多新成果,从已建成的生产能力看,2015年有供应55×108 m3燃气的可能性。综上所述,2015年国内燃气供应总量可能为1310×108 m3,如按预测的当年消费量达2 310×108 m3计算,则2015年需进口天然气1 000×108 m3。从目前预计的管道气和LNG接收站的实际进口量看,尚有270×108~300×108 m3的缺口,需及时采取措施提前投产一批LNG接收站并增加从中亚进口的天然气数量。建议在"十三五"能源规划的基础性研究中,完善对实际可供应的燃气商品量的统计。综合分析的结论认为,经济体制改革进程是影响我国油气产业发展的关键因素。     

基于供应链角度的中国天然气进口风险研究

近年来,中国天然气对外依存度快速增长,2016年已达33.4%。在天然气进口的过程中会面临各种风险,由于地理位置、经济环境、资源禀赋等的差异,中国从不同国家和地区进口天然气的风险并不完全相同。为此,以供应链为基础,构建了中国天然气进口风险指标体系,并使用熵权法计算指标权重,进而计算了中国2011—2014年从不同国家进口天然气的风险。研究结果表明:(1)2011—2014年,中国天然气进口风险总体呈上升趋势,其中陆上管道进口风险总体上小于海上进口风险;(2)从进口来源的角度分析,从土库曼斯坦进口天然气的风险最大,其次是卡塔尔、也门、乌兹别克斯坦、马来西亚、印度尼西亚、澳大利亚等国家。结论认为:中国应从优化天然气进口来源、加强天然气运输通道安全、扩大海外天然气开发投资、培养天然气自给能力等4个方面着手,降低天然气进口的风险,从而保证天然气供应的持续性和稳定性。     

Establishment of a multi-cycle generalized Weng model and its application in forecasts of global oil supply

Low oil prices under the influence of economic structure transformation and slow economic growth have hit the existing markets of traditional big oil suppliers and upgraded the conflict of oil production capacity and interest between OPEC producers and other big oil supplier countries such as the USA and Russia. Forecasting global oil production is significant for all countries for energy strategy planning, although many past forecasts have later been proved to be very seriously incorrect. In this paper,the original generalized Weng model is expanded to a multi-cycle generalized Weng model to better reflect the multi-cycle phenomena caused by political, economic and technological factors. This is used to forecast global oil production based on parameter selection from a large sample, depletion rate of remaining resources, constraints on oil reserves and cycle number determination. This research suggests that the world will reach its peak oil production in 2022, at about 4340×10~6 tonnes. China needs to plan for oil import diversity, a domestic oil production structure based on the supply pattern of large oil suppliers worldwide and the oil demand for China's own development.     

中国天然气发展战略的若干问题

中国天然气发展战略是中国能源发展战略的重要组成部分。中国能源需求量增长速度很快，进、出口平衡后能源自给率为94%，但到２０２０年我国的能源总需求量将增加５０％，故全面推进节约能源、提高能源利用效率势在必行。中国天然气发展战略是：不断扩大天然气的勘探开发；增加天然气需求比例是优化能源结构的重要举措；积极开展资源国与消费国天然气的国际合作，实现进口天然气的多元化；加速天然气上、中、下游基建设施的建设。此外，要加强国际合作，实现天然气进口多元化，做到PNG与LNG进口的合理布局、匹配。     

世界海相碳酸盐岩油气勘探开发现状与展望

当前国际能源供需矛盾突出,能源安全日益成为各国关注的焦点,碳酸盐勘探开发聚焦了世界的目光。主要大国出于经济和政治利益的考虑,加大对碳酸盐油气勘探开发的投入。世界碳酸盐岩油气探明可采总量为1 434.5×108t油当量,其中探明可采石油750.1×108t油当量,探明可采天然气684.4×108t油当量。世界碳酸盐岩油气田313个,其中油田208个,气田105个。中国碳酸盐岩探明石油15.2×108t油当量,探明率为6.5%,探明天然气1.36×108m3,探明率为28.65%。碳酸盐岩油气勘探方法有地质法、地球物理法、地球化学勘探法、钻井法。开发成熟技术有多分支井技术、定向射孔技术、压裂酸化技术等。通过对世界碳酸盐岩资源勘探开发现状研究,实现碳酸盐岩资源优化利用,改善勘探开发效果,必将为全球碳酸盐岩资源的高水平、高效益勘探开发和可持续发展提供理论及实践依据。     

Challenges and Opportunities of China Oil & Gas Industry

Chinese economy has turned from rapid development into new normal. With economic transition, demand for oil and gas decreases as well. Consumed diesel-gasoline ratio keeps declining, and diesel export increases considerably. Gas demand grows at medium speed, and supply meets demand in general. Alternative energy dominated by gas and electricity will develop faster. As crude oil import right is gradually liberalized, domestic oil market structure will be changed. Oil price drop brings the best opportunity for oil and gas market reform, and environmental protection becomes main force boosting natural gas development. Key words: oil, natural gas, transition, opportunity     

LNG市场的“亚洲溢价”问题分析及对策

长期以来,亚太地区的LNG进口价格相对于北美和欧洲地区存在着较高的溢价。为此,剖析了世界LNG市场“亚洲溢价”问题产生的原因：①与油价挂钩的LNG定价方式为原油的“亚洲溢价”向LNG转移提供了便利;②亚太地区LNG市场存在买方需求价格弹性较弱和市场有效分割的情况,出口国针对亚太地区采取了价格歧视。进一步综合分析的结果表明,受贸易限制以及液化及运输成本和地区供需差异等因素影响,LNG的“亚洲溢价”短期内难以消除,但未来新增的澳大利亚、美国、加拿大、莫桑比克等LNG供应将有助于缩小世界LNG市场的地区价差。针对LNG的“亚洲溢价”现象,中国可以采取的对策如下：①加强国内外资源开发利用,增强资源保障能力;②构建多元化的进口格局,保障能源供应安全;③完善天然气储备体系,提高风险防御能力;④建立天然气交易中心,提高谈判议价能力;⑤综合原油的“亚洲溢价”问题,建立中国、日本、韩国联合议价机制     

进口气源多元化是保障我国天然气长期供应安全的关键

中国作为新兴的天然气进口国,进口量呈现快速增加之势。近年来,国内频现"气荒"且影响范围越来越大,如何借鉴世界进口大国的天然气贸易经验,优化进口天然气的来源及渠道,保证天然气供应安全是当前亟待解决的问题。全球天然气资源非常丰富,近年来剩余探明可采储量和产量均持续增长,储采比一直保持较高的水平,预示未来相当长时间内世界天然气供应量将充足;但是,由于资源分布相对集中,伴随经济全球化发展的趋势,一方面使得区域天然气供需矛盾不断突出,另一方面也促进了世界天然气贸易快速发展,呈现出贸易量快速增加、贸易形式多样化、贸易区域全球化、进口大国进口来源多元化等四大特征。通过分析全球天然气资源、贸易现状及特点,总结不同天然气进口国在保障天然气供应安全方面的经验和做法,进而提出了保障我国天然气长期供应安全的4条建议:①加快构建进口气源多元化体系,实现平稳均衡发展;②加强国际合作,积极推进贸易方式多样化;③加强战略储备建设,加大国内资源勘探开发力度;④坚持独立自主的能源安全战略,天然气对外依存度应控制在50%以内。结论认为:天然气的利用是非常重要的民生工程,只有保障其长期安全稳定供应,才能更好地促进我国经济发展与和谐社会建设。     

中国新能源资源基础及发展前景展望

世界各国都十分重视新能源的开发利用,目前煤层气、油砂、页岩油、地热、燃料乙醇和生物柴油等已经在部分国家实现了有效开发。随着中国经济的快速发展,国内常规油气的开发已经不能满足经济发展的需要,新能源资源的开发利用对确保国家能源安全具有重要的意义。中国新能源资源丰富,近年来新能源业务发展迅速,且取得了大量的成果。目前,煤层气资源已经在沁水盆地实现了商业开发;页岩油产量增长迅速,并形成一定规模;油砂资源勘探在部分盆地展开,并在准噶尔盆地实现了工业试验;水合物、深盆气和页岩气资源前景巨大;地热、太阳能资源丰富,以直接利用为主;燃料乙醇已经进行了商业开发。随着科技的不断进步和各种难题的不断攻克,大力发展新能源能够在一定程度上满足中国经济发展的需求。     

中国新能源资源基础及发展前景展望

世界各国都十分重视新能源的开发利用,目前煤层气、油砂、页岩油、地热、燃料乙醇和生物柴油等已经在部分国家实现了有效开发。随着中国经济的快速发展,国内常规油气的开发已经不能满足经济发展的需要,新能源资源的开发利用对确保国家能源安全具有重要的意义。中国新能源资源丰富,近年来新能源业务发展迅速,且取得了大量的成果。目前,煤层气资源已经在沁水盆地实现了商业开发;页岩油产量增长迅速,并形成一定规模;油砂资源勘探在部分盆地展开,并在准噶尔盆地实现了工业试验;水合物、深盆气和页岩气资源前景巨大;地热、太阳能资源丰富,以直接利用为主;燃料乙醇已经进行了商业开发。随着科技的不断进步和各种难题的不断攻克,大力发展新能源能够在一定程度上满足中国经济发展的需求。     

天然气工业用户市场潜力及走向分析

天然气市场的发展将推动天然气得到有效利用。用于工业燃料的天然气是天然气市场的主要组成部分，因而天然气工业用户市场的潜力和走势将对天然气市场的发展产生重要的影响。文章分析了我国天然气利用的现状、工业锅炉和工业炉窖的燃料现状及存在问题、工业燃料的发展方向等，对比世界和我国天然气的消费结构，指出我国天然气在工业燃料上的利用市场巨大。针对天然气市场在以气代油和热电冷三联供方面的分析，指出天然气工业用户市场有很大的发展潜力。最后指出我国以煤为主的能源格局不会产生本质的变化,因此,慎重选择天然气的用途,对合理利用天然气具有重大意义。