Erdbebenrisiko‐Kartierung für Deutschland

Earthquake Risk Assessing and Mapping for Germany The aim of this study is to assess and map the seismic risk for Germany. There are several earthquake prone regions in the country which have produced ML magnitudes above 6 corresponding to ground shaking intensity VIII (EMS‐98). Combined with the fact that some of these earthquake prone areas are densely populated and highly industrialized and where therefore the hazard coincides with high concentration of exposed assets, the damaging implications from earthquakes must be taken seriously. In this study a methodology is presented and pursued to calculate the seismic risk from intensity based probabilistic seismic hazard, vulnerability composition models, which are based on the distribution of residential buildings of various structural types in representative communities and distribution of assets in terms of replacement costs for residential buildings, which are estimated for all communities of the country. The estimates of risk are treated as primary economic losses due to structural damage to residential buildings. The obtained results are presented as maps of the damage and risk distributions. For a probability level of 90% non‐exceedence in 50 years (corresponding to a mean return period of 475 years) the mean damage ratio is up to 20% and the risk up to hundreds of millions of euro in the most endangered communities. The developed models have been validated with observed data from several damaging earthquakes in Germany and the nearby area in the past 30 years.     

Semi-quantitative method to identify the vulnerable areas in terms of building aggregation for probable landslide runout at the regional scale: a case study from Soacha Province,Colombia

Landslide susceptibility and vulnerability maps are key components for urban planning and risk management. The main objective of this research was spatial vulnerability mapping in the probable landslide runout zone in Soacha Province, Colombia. This study included three major steps: identification of a landslide susceptible area, identification of its runout zone, and vulnerability assessment using an area damage index method. The landslide-prone area was identified through a susceptibility analysis using a logistic regression model. In total, 182 landslide locations were collected and randomly distributed as training data (70%) and validation data (30%). The final landslide susceptibility map was validated using the area under the curve method. The validation result showed success and prediction rates of 88.71% and 89.96%, respectively. The Flow-R model was applied to identify the runout zone, and a back-propagation analysis approach was applied to estimate two essential input data for the model, i.e., the travel angle and velocity. From seven locations, the back-propagation analysis showed an average travel angle of 14.6° and an average velocity of 11.4 m/s. A total of 3777 buildings were identified within the probable runout zone. A physical vulnerability assessment was done by finding the ratio between area of buildings and area of runout zone in each small unit boundary. The physical vulnerability was classified as low, moderate, extensive, and complete on the basis of building exposure. The final result revealed that most of the village areas are in null or moderate vulnerability zones. In contrast to the village areas, the city areas include zones of extensive and complete vulnerability. This study showed that about 52% of the area of the city of Cazuca is completely vulnerable, i.e., in areas where abandoned quarry sites are present. The map of vulnerable areas may assist planners in overall landslide risk management.

     

底层框架砖房的震害预测方法

随着城市建设的发展和人口密度的增大，地震对人类的危害变得越来越大，因此，做好建筑物震害预测工作，具有非常重要的现实意义，根据“合肥市防震减灾信息系统”中合肥市中市区底层框架砖房的抗震调查资料，用结构易损性分析方法对该类房屋未来震害情况进行了预测分析。     

Computer-Aided Pre- and Post-Earthquake Assessment of Buildings Involving Database Compilation, GIS Visualization, and Mobile Data Transmission

Abstract:   The aim of this article is to present a computer-aided comprehensive strategy for the rapid visual inspection of buildings and the optimal prioritization of strengthening and remedial actions that are necessary prior to, and after, a major earthquake event, respectively. Based on the visual screening procedures used in the United States and past experience in seismic assessment of buildings in Greece and Turkey (the two countries with the highest seismic risk in Europe), a building inventory is first compiled; then a vulnerability ranking procedure that is specifically tailored to the prevailing construction practice in Southeast Europe is implemented into a multi-functional, georeferenced computer tool, that accommodates the management, evaluation, processing and archiving of the data stock gathered during the pre- and post-earthquake assessment process, and the visualization of its spatial distribution. The methodology proposed and the computer system developed is then applied to the city of Düzce, Turkey, a city strongly damaged during the devastating 1999 earthquake.     

上海市居住房屋抗震防灾能力现状调查及抗震管理工作目标的分析

国内外震害经验表明,建筑工程抗震能力的强弱是决定地震损失多少的关键性因素。本文论述了对上海市居住房屋抗震防灾能力进行调查的重要意义,给出了上海市房屋建筑的宏观统计资料和各区各类房屋的分布情况;根据调查资料,在基于概率分析的基础上,对上海市有关各区的各类房屋进行了抗震能力的综合评估;最后从政府管理职能的角度出发,对上海市的抗震管理目标提出了建议。     

Framework for city‐scale building seismic resilience simulation and repair scheduling with labor constraints driven by time–history analysis

A city‐scale time–history analysis‐driven framework is proposed for the quantitative evaluation of building seismic resilience and repair scheduling with repair resource constraints. First, a calculation method for the post‐earthquake residual functionality of buildings based on engineering demand parameters is proposed. Second, the repair‐scheduling unit (RSU) concept is proposed for city‐scale repair scheduling. Moreover, two repair priority indices are introduced to evaluate the repair priority of each RSU. Next, the concept of job block is proposed to compute the repair time of an RSU with insufficient repair resources. Subsequently, the workflow of repair simulation is presented to calculate the community recovery curve and resilience index quantitatively. Finally, 68,930 residential buildings of Beijing City's 16 administrative districts are simulated to demonstrate the proposed method. The outcomes of this work are expected to be a useful reference for building seismic resilience evaluation and repair scheduling of communities. Consequently, it could be an aid to pre‐earthquake disaster risk reduction planning and post‐earthquake rapid recovery of building functionalities.     

Prediction of potential damage due to severe earthquakes

A statistical model is developed to estimate the seismic vulnerability of low- to mid-rise reinforced concrete buildings. The model is based on a novel utilization of the discriminant analysis technique of multivariate statistics. Number of stories above the ground level (N), soft story index (SSI), overhang ratio (OHR), minimum normalized lateral stiffness index (MNLSTFI), minimum normalized lateral strength index (MNLSI) and normalized redundancy score (NRS) are selected as the basic estimation variables. The earthquake damage data compiled for the 12 November 1999 Duzce earthquake are used to develop a discriminant function in terms of these estimation variables. The discriminant score obtained from the resulting discriminant function is then used to estimate the damage state of buildings ranging from no damage to collapse, with intermediate damage states of light, moderate and severe. Correct classification rates ranging between 62% and 95% obtained for the seismic damage data associated with the recent earthquakes that occurred in Turkey support the predictive ability of the proposed model.     

Verification of performance criteria using shake table testing for the vulnerability assessment of reinforced concrete buildings

Shake table experiments are conducted to support the selection of performance criteria and to verify the inelastic modeling approach for developing the fragility functions of reinforced concrete buildings. Two frames representing the lateral force‐resisting system of a preseismic code building are tested under the effect of an earthquake record with increasing severity. Shear failure is detected in columns at a PGA of 1.28g before other failure modes, which was effectively predicted by the fiber‐based numerical model, performance criteria, and shear supply approaches adopted for vulnerability assessment. Five buildings, ranging from 2 to 40 stories, are then assessed under the effect of far‐field and near‐source earthquake records, considering the experimentally verified modeling approach and shear failure prediction models that account for flexural ductility and shear‐axial force interaction. The impact of considering shear response on the vulnerability assessment results is considerable, particularly for the lower‐height wall structures when subjected to the near‐source earthquake scenario. Higher modes dominate the behavior of wall structures, principally under the latter seismic scenario, and shift their response to shear‐controlled. Therefore, seismic scenario‐structure‐based performance criteria are adopted for developing a range of analytically derived, experimentally verified fragility functions for the earthquake loss estimation of buildings with different characteristics.     

Vulnerability of hand-dug wells in the core area of Akure,Nigeria

Hand-dug wells (HDWs) are a major source of water supply in developing nations. This is consequent upon the failure of government to provide safe water to the people. This paper looks at the vulnerability of HDWs in the core area of Akure, Nigeria. The study area is made up of 11 residential quarters with 1149 buildings; 10% of buildings and five wells in each quarter were randomly selected for the study. Data were collected using structured questionnaires and laboratory examinations. Water quality assessment showed that most parameters fall within WHO permissible limits for drinking water. However, microbial examinations indicated that drinking water quality was compromised in two residential quarters as there was evidence of coliform and e-coli. The study also identified other possible sources of water contamination in the study area. This paper recommends regular treatment of wells and the adoption of pipe-borne water supply systems in the city and other similar cities in developing countries.     

Dynamic-MFA examination of Chilean housing stock: long-term changes and earthquake damage

The dynamics and metabolism of the built environment are important for understanding the construction, renovation and demolition activities that characterize its long-term physical development. Previous research on building stock development is limited, particularly for developing countries. As one of the most seismically active countries in the world, Chile's built environment is constantly subjected to losses. This study included earthquake vulnerability and damage in a dynamic material flow analysis (MFA) of the Chilean housing stock. Stock and flows of residential floor area were modelled using population and life style parameters. Demolition was modelled assuming a constant demolition rate. By characterizing the building stock according to vulnerability classes and establishing a mass balance per class, the effects of different typology distributions on the overall damage to the stock caused by earthquakes could be assessed. Scenarios with different trends in typology distribution for new construction and renovation suggest that significant potential exists for reducing future earthquake damage in the Chilean housing stock. This is best achieved by gradually reducing the vulnerability of buildings to earthquakes. Legislation, building standards and financial instruments could be used to ensure such reductions in earthquake damage and thereby provide socio-economic benefits in the future.     

Commonly encountered seismic design faults due to the architectural design of residential buildings in Turkey

The 17 August 1999 and 12 November 1999 earthquakes in Western Anatolia provided undesirable field evidence that most of the low story residential reinforced concrete buildings have very poor earthquake resistance. Architectural design faults negatively affect the structural behavior of buildings. In Turkey, earthquake-resistant design is considered to be exclusively within the field of responsibility of structural engineers. As a result, architects and especially students of architecture are not well informed about the effect of their design decisions on the seismic performance of the buildings. Structural damages in collapsed buildings demonstrate that most of the design faults that lead to destruction of buildings are due to architectural decisions. This paper intends to present the concept of earthquake-resistant design in a comprehensible format for the architects and builders, therefore aims to contribute to the efforts of creating a better awareness of earthquake resistant building design.     

Erdbebengebiete der Bundesrepublik Deutschland – eine statistische Auswertung

Earthquake regions in Germany – a statistical evaluation. In context with the development of the German Seismic Code DIN 4149: 2005 a new zoning map has been elaborated. Before obtaining the status of an official document, the affected administrative units have to be assigned to the corresponding zones, under the responsibility of the German states. On the basis of recent statistical data provided by the state offices the shares of each federal state to the whole area of the individual seismic zones are evaluated. To gain a more detailed insight concerning the practical consequences, in addition to the size of the covered areas the number of inhabitants and buildings within theses zones are determined and compared. It can be concluded that about 60% of all zone 3 areas belong to Baden‐Wuerttemberg (BW) and about 40% to North Rhine‐Westphalia (NRW), but in contrast and due to the different density of settlement, from the about 0.35 Mio residential buildings in the highest zone3, about 65% of the buildings belong to NRW and only 35% to BW. The number of buildings in the lower zones2 and 1 is – if one follows purely the statistical facts – high. Regarding the generally acknowledged high quality of construction standards in Germany a check of inherent earthquake resistance (of structures without antiseismic provisions) is recommended in order to reduce design requirements. Using the ratio between the reference acceleration of the new and the previous code version and zoning maps regions, different levels of change (ranging from the neglect or reduction to a serious increase of design parameters) are distinguished.     

武汉里份建筑改造设计更新策略

通过对武汉民居建筑的现状分析,以汉口泰宁里为例,探讨了武汉里份建筑改造设计和更新策略,从保存、更新、延续城市历史文脉的角度出发,在保留武汉城市风貌和历史文化的前提下,挖掘城市的魅力,重新架构新的空间形式,赋予它现代的生活质量和存在价值.这些策略对民居建筑的保护、修复、改造和开发利用方面有所助益.     

Incorporation of Seismic Considerations in Bridge Management Systems

The objective of this paper is to incorporate seismic hazard and risk analysis considerations, which are concerned with the occurrence of earthquakes and the vulnerability of structures, into bridge management systems. We develop a decision model for optimizing bridge maintenance, repair, and reconstruction (MR&R) policies that takes into account the occurrence of earthquake events. The model presented in this paper is not meant to be very detailed or comprehensive, but rather to allow us to obtain qualitative implications of including seismic considerations in bridge management systems. Based on four different case studies, we found that accounting for the probability of earthquake occurrence in a bridge MR&R decision-making model had a significant impact on the probability distribution of the bridge condition state, the optimal policies, and their total cost. Furthermore, we found that ignoring the probability of destruction due to earthquakes would lead to errors in budgeting.     

住宅建筑气候适应性优化设计研究

以中国5个典型城市的气候条件为例，提出住宅建筑气候适应性优化设计流程。基于Grasshopper参数化性能分析平台，和Ladybug/Honeybee环境分析插件，以热环境舒适度模型、建筑能耗模型和建筑生命周期成本模型为目标函数进行优化分析。发现哈尔滨和北京气候条件下，住宅建筑应选择nZEB'（权衡最优）设计参数，而上海、昆明和深圳气候条件下，C-O（成本效益最优）解决方案比nZEB（节能最优）解决方案的综合效益更好。基于参数化性能模拟的多目标优化可以有效辅助住宅建筑的气候适应性设计研究。     

中国大陆建筑物地震灾害风险分布研究

宏观掌握我国建筑物分布和抗震能力现状,震前对政府指导建设规划、建筑物抗震加固和民众提高防灾意识,震时指挥地震应急、损失评估等工作有重要指导意义。该文在对我国各地区建筑物抗震能力开展大量抽样调查的基础上,研究经济、土地利用、设防情况、人口密度和行政区划属性等因素与区域建筑物抗震能力的相关性,建立中国大陆区域建筑物抗震能力综合分区分类方法;利用实际地震震害资料、震害预测资料及建筑物群体震害预测方法,建立不同地区各种结构类型的建筑物地震易损性矩阵;结合不同区域内所具有的各类建筑物存量,基于GIS软件平台,计算并绘制在基本设防烈度地震作用下中国大陆地震灾害风险损失分布图。文中提出一套评估区域建筑物地震灾害风险损失较为完整的思路和方法,可为生命线地震灾害风险损失和人员伤亡分布等研究提供借鉴。     

轻钢结构住宅发展

以汶川地震造成的房屋破坏为出发点,引入了轻钢结构住宅,归纳了轻钢结构住宅的优点,总结出轻钢结构住宅在我国发展中存在的问题,并提出推广轻钢结构住宅的建议,从而提高建筑物的抗震性能。     

拉萨市直接受益式太阳房居住建筑被动式设计优化研究

随着社会经济的进步和人民生活水平的不断提高,拉萨市的建筑规模和建筑能耗都有了大规模的提高。通过两次冬季现场调研,拉萨市现有集合式居住建筑的室内温度分布,室内热环境评价等现有建筑的室内热环境特点被测试分析。结果表明:拉萨市现有居住建筑大多自发采用直接受益式太阳能利用系统,但其冬季室内热环境仍然普遍不理想。考虑到拉萨市已经被列为采暖区,当地的冬季采暖能耗面临巨大增幅的可能。以拉萨市最常见的直接受益式居住建筑为基础,建立热环境模拟模型,通过模拟软件分析了影响室内热环境的各项被动式设计基本要素。最终结果给当地的居住建筑设计工作提供了合理建议。     

Stochastic modelling of water demand by domestic washrooms in residential tower blocks

Accurate estimates of probable simultaneous maximum demand are essential for appropriate decisions on sizing water supply plants and piping systems for high-rise residential buildings at a balance of acceptable plant reliability and construction cost. This study proposes a stochastic model of the probable maximum simultaneous water demands of domestic washrooms at some usage patterns for which the appliances in the same washroom would not operate simultaneously. The model parameters were determined from surveys of usage patterns in 597 domestic washrooms of typical high-rise residential buildings in Hong Kong. The results showed that the probable maximum simultaneous demands due to a number of domestic washrooms in a typical high-rise residential building were only about 50–60% of those estimates with an assumption of all appliances in simultaneous operation. This study is a useful source of reference in determining loadings of water supply plants and piping systems for high-rise residential buildings.     

1998年-2008年特大城市高层住宅发展的综合效益评价——以武汉市为例

高层住宅是在市场需求和土地资源紧缺相矛盾的合力作用之下产生的结果。经过1998～2008的高层住宅发展期,武汉作为特大城市中的二级城市有其特殊的研究意义并具有代表性。本文在分析土地价值的基础上,研究10年间城市高层住宅的发展,以及为城市带来的综合效益和产生的影响,作为特大城市高层住宅未来发展的经验和教训。