Analysis of spatio-temporal evolution of droughts in Luanhe River Basin using different drought indices

Based on the monthly precipitation and air temperature from 1960 to 1989 in the Luanhe River Basin, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI) and standardized precipitation index(SPI) at three- and six-month time scales and the self-calibrating Palmer drought severity index(sc-PDSI) were calculated to evaluate droughts in the study area. Temporal variations of the drought severity from 1960 to1989 were analyzed and compared based on the results of different drought indices, and some typical drought events were identified. Spatial distributions of the drought severity according to the indices were also plotted and investigated. The results reveal the following: the performances of different drought indices are closely associated with the drought duration and the dominant factors of droughts; the SPEI is more accurate than the SPI when both evaporation and precipitation play important roles in drought events; the drought severity shown by the sc-PDSI is generally milder than the actual drought severity from 1960 to 1989; and the evolution of the droughts is usually delayed according to the scPDSI. This study provides valuable references for building drought early warning and mitigation systems in the Luanhe River Basin.     

基于SPEI的海河流域干旱时空演变特征及环流成因分析

基于海河流域31个气象站1961—2017年逐日气象资料、美国国家环境预报中心(NCEP)和美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)再分析数据集,计算了多时间尺度标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI),分析了海河流域1961—2017年干旱时空演变特征,并结合流域夏季500 hPa等位势高度场分析了流域干旱演变特征的环流成因。结果表明:1961—2017年海河流域有轻微干旱趋势,且长历时干旱主要集中于1980—2017年,但干旱强度呈减弱趋势,春末(5、6月)湿润化趋势显著,夏季(7、8月)干旱化趋势显著;空间分布上,海河流域内57.4%的区域呈现干旱化趋势,19.0%的区域呈现干旱减弱趋势,全流域夏季呈显著干旱化趋势;蒙古高压增强、西太平洋副热带高压西移、南扩以及增强的环流特征不利于水汽输送及降水形成,高压系统的增强和水汽输送的减少是流域夏季干旱化趋势的原因之一。     

不同干旱指数在唐山地区旱情评价中的应用

基于唐山地区1957—2011年的气象资料,比较分析标准化降水指数（S SPI）、标准化降水蒸散发指数（S SPEI）和帕默尔水文干旱指数（P PHDI）3种不同干旱指数的相关性,并评价了各个指数在唐山地区连旱期间的适用性。结果表明：各时间尺度（年、季、月）的S SPI和S SPEI均显著相关;P PHDI与年尺度的S SPI和S SPEI均显著相关。P PHDI对长期干旱判断效果明显优于短期干旱。年尺度S SPEI和S SPI对干旱事件识别效果比较接近,二者对长期干旱判断偏涝,对短期干旱判断效果明显优于P PHDI。在气温偏低的年份,季尺度的S SPI能很好地反映旱情的严重程度,在气候变暖的背景下,季尺度S SPEI比S SPI更能准确地判断和评价旱情。     

淮河流域陆地水储量与干旱指标分析

基于GRACE卫星数据、MODIS数据和降水数据分析了2003—2016年淮河流域陆地水储量、植被指数和降水的多年时空变化,并探究标准化陆地水储量指数(SWSI)、标准化降水指数(SPI)与条件植被指数(VCI)对流域干旱的指示性。结果表明:淮河流域陆地水储量呈显著下降趋势,降水量微弱下降,植被覆盖率显著上升;SPI与VCI相关性较高,与SWSI变化较为一致;SWSI与SPI指示的不同等级干旱月份数量基本相当,明显小于VCI;SPI对淮河流域历史干旱存在漏报,VCI指示的干旱等级略偏高;SWSI整体表现较为良好,能够有效监测淮河流域旱情。     

基于SPEI的南水北调中线水源区干旱时空特征

利用多种统计方法对南水北调中线水源区降水和气温序列进行趋势诊断,识别了不同气象站点序列的时空变化趋势;以标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)为干旱指标,建立考虑降水和气温共同对干旱过程影响的评价模型,研究分析了水源区不同时间尺度和分期(汛期、非汛期和全年期)干旱过程动态变化特征。分析表明:降水量呈现不显著的下降趋势,气温总体呈现显著性上升趋势;短时间尺度SPEI对降水和气温变化更加敏感,随着时间尺度增大,SPEI值变化更加平缓;非汛期和全年期水源区发生严重干旱的概率增大,不同气象站点3个不同时期发生特旱或重旱的年份与历史发生干旱的资料相一致;干旱严重程度从上游到下游逐渐衰减,整个汉江上游和西北部地区干旱发生频次略高于下游和南部地区;对比标准化降水指标(SPI)计算结果,SPEI指数较SPI指数补充考虑了降水和气温对干旱过程的综合影响,可作为SPI指数的一个重要补充分析手段,可应用于描述南水北调中线水源区不同时间尺度的干旱特征。     

Drought Characterisation Based on Water Surplus Variability Index

Drought assessment, characterisation and monitoring increasingly requires considering not only precipitation but also the other meteorological parameters such as an evapotranspiration. Thus, some new drought indices based on precipitation and evapotranspiration have been developed. This study introduces a new drought index named the water surplus variability index (WSVI). The procedure to estimate the index involves accumulation water surplus at different time scales. To approve the proposed procedure, the WSVI is compared with the standardized precipitation index (SPI), the reconnaissance drought index (RDI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) based on 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month timescales using data from several weather stations located in regions with different aridity index. Near perfect agreement (d?~?1) between WSVI and SPI, RDI and SPEI was indicated in humid and sub-humid locations. The results also showed that the correlation coefficients between WSVI and SPI, RDI and SPEI were higher for semi-arid stations than for arid ones.     

基于标准化降水蒸散指数的长江流域旱涝情势演变

基于长江流域133个气象站1970-2012年实测逐月降水量和月平均气温资料,计算不同时间尺度上的标准化降水蒸散指数序列,研究近几十年来长江流域旱涝情势的时空演变特征。结果表明,1970-2012年长江流域整体干旱形势不严重,但是干旱化的趋势比较明显。与长江上游地区相比,长江中下游区域的干旱趋势表现得更加突出,特别是长时间尺度上的干旱趋势非常明显。针对典型极端气象事件分析发现,标准化降水蒸散指数能够反映出不同时间尺度上长江流域发生的旱涝事件,表明该指数对于准确评估长江流域的旱涝程度和分布范围具有很好的指示性意义。     

黄河流域气象干旱与水文干旱时空特征及其传递关系EI北大核心CSCD

基于标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)和标准化径流指数(SRI),比较了黄河流域气象干旱和水文干旱的时空分布差异,分析了二者时间尺度上的关联性,并选取典型干旱事件进一步探讨了两种干旱类型的传递关系。结果表明:两种干旱类型空间上有相似的趋势和频次,但在黄河源区和黄河中南部(渭河流域)差异显著,其干旱历时均有随年代延长的趋势,水文干旱历时增长尤为明显;在时间尺度上,SPEI与SRI在大部分区域基本一致,但在黄河源区和渭河流域差异较大,尤其是短时间尺度上差异更显著;气象干旱与水文干旱并非一一对应,多场短历时间断气象干旱受时滞效应、异常气象波动等影响,可能引发一场长历时连续水文干旱或多场短历时间断水文干旱,一场长历时连续气象干旱强度衰减可能引发多场短历时间断水文干旱。     

干旱指数在辽河流域的应用分析

由于农业用水增加、工业污染严重,造成辽河流域干旱程度加重,利用2010—2015年辽河流域昌图县、康平县、法库县逐月降水量资料及年降雨量数据,通过降水距平百分率、标准化降水指数(SPI)、降水Z指数合理评价了辽河流域干旱情况,并比较3种干旱指数的评价效果。分析了三个地方的干旱情况,研究并比较了降水距平百分率、 SPI、降水Z指数的评价效果。结果表明：降水距平百分率反映干旱程度较轻;与降水Z指数相比,SPI指数能较客观地反映辽河流域干旱程度。为辽河流域定量研究干旱事件提供合理的指标依据,为不同研究区根据自身特点选择适合的干旱指标奠定理论基础。     

黄河流域干旱时空演变的空间格局研究

干旱因子是突变性和连续性并存的复杂地理要素(即空间异质性和相似性并存),理清其空间分布格局,对于深入认识流域水资源演变规律具有重要意义。本文以黄河流域为例,采用标准化降水指数(SPI)分析流域干旱时空演变规律,基于此,运用游程理论方法从标准化降水指数中识别出干旱发生次数、历时和烈度三种属性变量,并分析季尺度干旱因子的空间分布规律;最后,利用全局和局部Moran’s I指数探究了不同特征变量的全局和局部空间自相关性,确立了流域季尺度干旱因子的空间聚集(离散)位置及其空间分布格局。结果表明:(1)黄河流域四季干旱化程度加剧,下游干旱化程度高于上游,随着季节的变化,同一响应单元存在由湿转干再转湿的变化规律;(2)不同季节,流域旱情空间分布格局差异明显,春季西安及周边区域存在区域性干旱现象(干旱次数少、历时长、烈度大);夏季黄河源区旱情严重(历时长、烈度大);秋季黄河下游三门峡、孟津和运城区域存在区域性干旱现象(干旱次数少、历时长、烈度大);冬季宁蒙河段旱情严重,而兰州断面干旱历时和干旱烈度呈现"低高异常"的空间分布格局,旱情可能会加剧。掌握旱情空间分布类型,重点布控"高高聚集"格局区域,可以有效提高旱灾决策的准确度。     

Comparative evaluation of impacts of climate change and droughts on river flow vulnerability in Iran

Rivers in arid and semi-arid regions are threatened by droughts and climate change. This study focused on a comparative evaluation of the impacts of climate change and droughts on the vulnerability of river flows in three basins with diverse climates in Iran. The standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and precipitation effectiveness variables (PEVs) extracted from the conjunctive precipitation effectiveness index (CPEI) were used to analyze the drought severity. To investigate hydrological droughts in the basins, the normalized difference water index (NDWI) and the streamflow drought index (SDI) were calculated and compared. The effects of droughts were assessed under various representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. Changes in the number of wet days and precipitation depth restricted hydrological droughts, whereas an increasing number of dry days amplified their severity. The projected increases in dry days and precipitation over short durations throughout a year under future climate scenarios would produce changes in drought and flood periods and ultimately impact the frequency and severity of hydrological droughts. Under RCP 4.5, an increase in the frequencies of moderate and severe meteorological/hydrological droughts would further affect the Central Desert Basin. Under RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, the frequencies of severe and extreme droughts would increase, but the drought area would be smaller than that under RCP 4.5, demonstrating less severe drought conditions. Due to the shallow depths of most rivers, SDI was found to be more feasible than NDWI in detecting hydrological droughts.     

基于改进三维识别方法的西北地区干旱事件分析

以标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)为基础,基于改进的干旱三维识别方法,提取多个反映干旱空间动态演变过程的特征变量,对西北地区识别的气象干旱事件进行分类并分析其时空演变模式,揭示季节干旱发展规律。结果表明：改进的干旱三维识别方法能够准确提取出时空连续的干旱事件,提高了干旱时空动态演变监测的可视化程度;1960—2018年西北地区气象干旱事件以同向迁移规律为主,青海省北部和甘肃省中部为两个主干旱中心区域,且呈现出历时逐渐变短、大面积干旱事件占比逐渐降低的趋势;西北地区季节连旱事件多集中在青海省,春夏秋连旱事件由东南向西北方向迁移,夏秋冬连旱事件由西南向东北方向迁移,且两种季节连旱事件在发展后期的迁移速率相对较快。     

南盘江流域水文干旱对气象干旱的响应特征研究

选取南盘江流域3个站点40年(1970年-2009年)的逐月径流资料和20个站点同期逐月降水资料,计算标准化径流指数(SSFI)和不同时间尺度的标准化降水指数(SPI),从中选取水文干旱样本和同期的SPI进行统计分析,研究水文干旱对气象干旱的响应特征。结果表明:南盘江流域SSFI对SPI具有良好的响应关系;SSFI对SPI的响应关系随时间尺度的不同相关性不同;总体来看,流域内水文干旱对气象干旱的响应时间约为6个月。     

干旱指数在四川省的适用性分析

干旱灾害频发严重制约着四川省的农业发展,为合理分析四川省干旱情况,干旱指数的选择尤为重要。本文基于四川省39个气象站点1960年-2013年的气象资料,分别计算1961年、1994年、2006年和2009年-2010年各站点相对湿润指数M、气象干旱综合指数CI、标准化降水指数SPI和标准化降水蒸散指数SPEI,利用Arcgis反距离插值法进行空间插值,并与中国气象灾害大典记录的四川省典型年干旱情况进行对比分析,进而评价四种干旱指数在四川省的适用性。结果表明:对于1961年夏旱,M指数和CI指数均表现出无旱或轻旱,SPI指数结果较实际情况偏小,SPEI指数监测出了干旱的重灾区,效果在四个干旱指标中最好;1994年夏伏旱,M指数监测结果偏小;CI指数出现了空报,对川东地区和川西高原的监测结果偏小,SPEI指数在达县、巴中一带结果偏小,而SPI指数在成都、绵阳一带的结果偏小。2006年伏旱,M指数监测结果偏小;CI指数比M指数效果稍好,但结果仍然偏小;SPI指数和SPEI指数监测出的干旱特征与实际一致;2009年-2010年的冬春连旱,SPEI指数效果最好,M指数次之,SPI指数效果最差。SPEI指数最能反映四川省典型干旱年干旱的空间分布特征。     

Diagnosing anomalous characteristics of atmospheric water cycle structure during seasonal-scale drought events: A case study in middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River

Anomalous characteristics of the atmospheric water cycle structure are highly significant to the mechanisms of seasonal-scale meteorological droughts. They also play an important role in the identification of indicative predictors of droughts. To better understand the causes of seasonal meteorological droughts in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLRYR), characteristics of the atmospheric water cycle structure at different drought stages were determined using standardized anomalies. The results showed that the total column water vapor (TCWV) was anomalously low during drought occurrence periods. In contrast, there were no anomalous signals at the drought persistence and recovery stages in the MLRYR. Moreover, there was no significant temporal correlation between the TCWV anomaly and seasonal-scale drought index (the 3-month standardized precipitation index (SPI₃)). During drought events, water vapor that mainly originated from the Bay of Bengal was transported southwest of the MLRYR. Meanwhile, the anomalous signal of water vapor transport was negative at the drought appearance stage. At the drought persistence stage, the negative anomalous signal was the most significant. Water vapor flux divergence in the MLRYR showed significant positive anomalous signals during drought events, and the signal intensity shifted from an increasing to a decreasing trend at different drought stages. In addition, a significant positive correlation existed between the anomaly of water vapor flux divergence and regional SPI₃. Overall, water vapor flux divergence is more predictive of droughts in the MLRYR.     

Spatial Patterns and Temporal Variability of Drought in Western Iran

An analysis of drought in western Iran from 1966 to 2000 is presented using monthly precipitation data observed at 140 gauges uniformly distributed over the area. Drought conditions have been assessed by means of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). To study the long-term drought variability the principal component analysis was applied to the SPI field computed on 12-month time scale. The analysis shows that applying an orthogonal rotation to the first two principal component patterns, two distinct sub-regions having different climatic variability may be identified. Results have been compared to those obtained for the large-scale using re-analysis data suggesting a satisfactory agreement. Furthermore, the extension of the large-scale analysis to a longer period (1948–2007) shows that the spatial patterns and the associated time variability of drought are subjected to noticeable changes. Finally, the relationship between hydrological droughts in the two sub-regions and El Niño Southern Oscillation events has been investigated finding that there is not clear evidence for a link between the two phenomena.     

Application of a hybrid multiscalar indicator in drought identification in Beijing and Guangzhou,China

The Palmer drought severity index (PDSI) is physically based with multivariate concepts, but requires complicated calibration and cannot easily be used for multiscale comparison. Standardized drought indices (SDIs), such as the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), are multiscalar and convenient for spatiotemporal comparison, but they are still challenged by their lack of physical basis. In this study, a hybrid multiscalar indicator, the standardized Palmer drought index (SPDI), was used to examine drought properties of two meteorological stations (the Beijing and Guangzhou stations) in China, which have completely different drought climatologies. The results of our case study show that the SPDI is correlated with the well-established drought indices (SPI, SPEI, and PDSI) and presents generally consistent drought/wetness conditions against multiple indicators and literature records. Relative to the PDSI, the SPDI demonstrates invariable statistical characteristics and better comparable drought/wetness frequencies over time and space. Moreover, characteristics of major drought events (drought class, and onset and end times) indicated by the SPDI are generally comparable to those detected by the PDSI. As a physically-based standardized multiscalar drought indicator, the SPDI can be regarded as an effective development of the Palmer drought indices, providing additional choices and tools for practical drought monitoring and assessment.     

基于新型综合干旱指数的珠江流域未来干旱变化特征研究

综合干旱指数构建及评估未来综合干旱特征变化具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。本文基于Copula函数,联合降水及VIC模型模拟的蒸散发、径流和土壤水等水文气象要素,构建了一种能综合表征气象-水文-农业干旱特征的新型综合干旱指数(CSDI),并以珠江流域为例进行应用,分析了未来气候变化情景下研究区综合干旱的变化特征。结果表明:(1)CSDI指数综合考虑了与干旱发生、演变密切相关的水文气象要素,能很好地监测到干旱的发生、发展过程,可综合从气象、水文与农业等角度刻画干旱特征。(2)RCP2.6情景下,流域下游综合干旱严重性降低且历时减少,而RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,全流域则均增加,严重性和历时分别至少平均增加14.8%和11.5%。(3)RCP2.6情景下,流域上下游超阈联合重现期100年的同频设计严重性和历时值均大幅降低,而RCP4.5、RCP8.5情景下,流域大部分地区则均呈升高。本研究可为研究区防旱抗旱提供新的参考。     

CRU产品在中国大陆的干旱事件时间性效用评估

基于1980—2016年CGDPA(China gauge-based precipitation daily analysis dataset)和PM-Ep(potential evapotranspiration calculated by Penman-Monteith)资料,以标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)为干旱指标,采用6种评估指标综合评价CRU降水(CRU-P)和潜在蒸散发(CRU-Ep)产品在中国大陆对干旱事件时间性的监测效用。结果表明:CRU-P与CGDPA在中国大陆空间分布特征具有较好的相似性,而CRU-Ep与PM-Ep有明显差异,但它们在大部分地区的精度较高;SPEIc(基于CRU-P和CRU-Ep计算的SPEI)在中国东部和西部部分地区的性能较好,其与SPEIm(基于CGDPA和PM-Ep计算的SPEI)的相关系数在中国东部、西北、西南地区均大于0.7,均方根误差小于0.8,命中率大于0.6;利用文中提出的干旱率、平均开始时间误差、平均结束时间误差评价得出不同时间尺度的SPEIc在中国大陆大部分地区监测干旱事件时间性的精度较高,且在中国东部地区优于西部地区;基于长序列CRU产品驱动的SPEI可适用于中国东部、西北、西南地区的干旱监测。     

Construction of an optimized comprehensive drought index for agricultural watersheds in cold regions and its applicability analysisEI北大核心CSCD

以挠力河流域为寒区农业流域典型区,构建融合多源信息的综合干旱指数用于寒区农业流域干旱特征的评估,并分析其适用性。基于构建的SWAT模型模拟挠力河流域水文气象要素,计算单一的标准化降水蒸散发指数(SPEI)、标准化土壤湿度指数(SSI)和标准化径流指数(SRI),运用主成分分析法和熵权法分别对3种单一干旱指数赋权,通过最小偏差法计算最优组合权重,构建融合气象干旱、农业干旱和水文干旱信息的综合干旱指数(OCDI)。结果表明:OCDI的干旱事件监测结果与历史干旱事件吻合度较高,综合考虑多时间尺度下的OCDI对于挠力河流域干旱状况描述更为准确和全面;3种单一干旱指数监测的干旱程度空间分布差异明显,融合多源信息的OCDI能够从气象干旱、农业干旱和水文干旱多角度揭示挠力河流域综合干旱特征;OCDI与不同类型单一干旱指数均有较高的相关性,在挠力河流域上游对于干旱的综合表征能力更优且年尺度的OCDI综合表征能力优于季尺度和月尺度;OCDI能够较好地识别和区分该流域的综合干旱程度,随着OCDI所识别综合干旱程度的加重,流域实际受旱面积相应增大。