基于鲁棒优化的供应链联合补货策略

供应链管理中的客户需求不确定性会导致需求信息偏差逐级放大的"牛鞭效应",但目前常用的供应链管理策略为供应商管理库存,没有考虑需求不确定的影响。为此,在单个供应商、多个零售商需求不确定的情况下,结合鲁棒优化法提出一种联合补货策略进行库存管理。构建一个非线性混合整数规划模型以计算两级供应链的总成本,通过总成本的变化来反映供应链系统的性能,采用鲁棒优化法求解供应链系统的最小总成本,并使用外部和内部两层迭代算法获得供应商和零售商的补货周期及补货数目。实验结果表明,与传统的供应链策略ERI和AR相比,该策略可有效降低供应链系统的总成本。     

基于组合预测的供应链系统建模及其鲁棒状态反馈镇定

针对上游节点未能及时获取下游节点当前订单信息的情形,提出一种利用历史订单信息预估供应链下游节点企业订货量的线 性组合预测方法,进而将供应链系统模型化为一个含有多状态时滞的线性时滞不确定性系统,给出了供应链系统时滞依赖状态反馈鲁棒镇定的充分条件和状态反馈控制器设计方法.仿真算例表明,组合预测方法以及鲁棒状态反馈控制器能有效抑制牛鞭效应,显著改善供应链系统的性能.     

供应商管理库存对牛鞭效应的影响

采用基于z变换的离散传递函数和测量牛鞭效应的控制工程方法,计算了一个由一个供应商和一个用户组成的、使用指数平滑预测的供应商管理库存供应链和传统供应链的牛鞭效应,并比较了这两种供应链对牛鞭效应的影响.通过仿真证实,应用供应商管理库存策略对供应链的物理过程进行再造是一种有效的减少牛鞭效应的方法.     

基于Prim-DMGA算法的闭环供应链网络鲁棒优化研究

针对不确定环境下的闭环供应链网络优化问题,在需求不确定及设施中断风险的条件下,基于鲁棒对等优化方法建立了一种以闭环供应链网络总成本最小为目标的鲁棒优化模型,以解决供应链网络中的不确定性问题,并提出了Prim-DMGA。首先基于Prim算法得到高质量的初始种群,其次让路径规划方案和设施选址方案在两层自适应GA的不断反馈中达到最优。实验结果表明,Prim-DMGA得到的目标函数值优于单层Prim-MGA与传统GA,且在求解大规模算例时,求解结果优于CPLEX软件。研究结论表明,Prim-DMGA能以较少的计算时间获得质量更优的解,鲁棒优化模型可以有效减少不确定因素带来的不利影响,提高闭环供应链网络的鲁棒性能。     

基于Anylogic的物流服务供应链牛鞭效应仿真分析*

针对当前牛鞭效应研究集中于产品供应链的现状,以及服务的无形性等众多与产品不同的特性,提出以服务能力模拟产品库存进行牛鞭效应研究的可能;构建了物流服务供应链的概念模型,归纳出其牛鞭效应的四个成因;以上下游服务能力调配策略为基础,构造了三阶物流服务供应链中的成本函数和等待时间函数,运用仿真软件Anylogic进行了实证分析和优化改进。结果表明牛鞭效应确实也存在于服务型供应链中,造成能力利用率偏低和资源浪费,同时验证了以服务能力模拟产品库存进行牛鞭效应研究的有效性。     

PI补充策略下供应链牛鞭效应的$H_infty$控制

牛鞭效应是指供应链管理订单制定环节中因信息扭曲造成的需求逐级放大的一种现象.针对供应链中的节点企业,在订货点法的基础上加以改进构建新的订单制定规则,并构建$H_\infty$控制器达到抑制牛鞭效应的目的,从而降低供应链整体成本.订单制定环节由企业订单规则和需求预测两个部分组成,为应对需求持续上升使安全库存发散的情况,在订货点法的基础上设计PI补充策略下的新订单规则,并以系统$H_\infty$范数与供应链牛鞭效应的指标定义相同为基础,引入$H_\infty$控制器代替预测函数.仿真结果表明,所设计的PI 补充策略下的$H_\infty$控制器法与传统订单制定算法相比,可有效削减牛鞭效应,并且使企业库存始终维持在一个安全稳定的状态.     

时滞和参数不确定的供应链动态模型及其鲁棒H∞控制

研究了不确定环境下的供应链运作问题,并建立了具有生产时滞、成本参数和需求不确定性的供应链动态模型.分析了供应链的鲁棒运作,采用鲁棒H∞控制策略和线性矩阵不等式(LMI)算法处理供应链系统鲁棒运作问题.借助供应链库存状态的静态反馈控制,使供应链动态系统达到抑制不确定性干扰的作用,并使供应链运作达到理想总成本.最后,通过仿真计算验证了所得结果.     

基于改进HBA算法的生鲜闭环供应链网络鲁棒优化设计

针对生鲜闭环供应链网络设计问题,建立了一种基于生鲜闭环供应链网络的鲁棒优化模型,以解决供应链网络中的不确定性问题。首先,针对涵盖五个节点的生鲜供应链网络结构建立了多周期、多产品,以最小化成本、最小环境影响为目标的混合整数规划模型,采用模糊折中规划与区间数据鲁棒优化方法进行处理;其次,在原有蜜獾算法的基础上引入差分进化原则,增强算法的全局搜索能力与收敛速度;最后,通过MATLAB数值分析与仿真实例表明,所提鲁棒优化模型与蜜獾算法在求解生鲜闭环供应链网络设计问题中具有明显优势。     

不确定经济环境下基于EVA的鲁棒供应链网络设计模型

针对由制造商、仓库、分销中心和客户组成的四级供应链网络设计问题,考虑以产品需求、短期利率、长期 利率、无风险利率、预期市场回报、证券承销费用和市场流动性等因素描述的经济环境不确定性,建立以供应链 经济增加值绩效为目标,网络设计、物流和财务运作为约束条件,设施选择、连接路径等为网络要素,生产、运输等物 流量和负债、保理、应收账款等财务项为决策变量的多产品、多周期供应链网络鲁棒设计模型.数值结果表明,基于 经济增加值的鲁棒供应链网络能够有效应对经济不确定性的影响.特别地,与传统随机优化方法相比,鲁棒优化能够确保供应链网络具有更好的鲁棒性和财务状况.     

含时滞的不确定性供应链网络系统牛鞭效应控制策略及其经济性能分析

考虑需求、生产能力、供应链结构等内外不确定性因素和供应链系统运作延迟,构建了不确定环境下含时滞的供应链库存网络系统状态转移模型.针对牛鞭效应问题,提出了基于库存水平波动状态的控制策略和相应的经济性能指标;借助线性矩阵不等式方法,深入分析库存策略的参数优化设计对牛鞭效应以及经济性能的影响.仿真结果表明,在经济性能约束下,该库存策略具有较强的牛鞭效应遏制能力,从而表明了策略的有效性和实用性.     

Measure of bullwhip effect in supply chains with first-order bivariate vector autoregression time-series demand model

With supply chains becoming increasingly global, the issue of bullwhip effect, a phenomenon attributable to demand fluctuation in the upstream section of the supply chains, has received greater attention from many researchers. However, most existing research studies on quantifying the bullwhip effect were conducted under the first-order autoregressive [AR(1)] incoming demand process or its variants as the fundamental demand process, thereby failing to account for the retailer demand dependency. This research work thus examined the bullwhip effect for the first-order bivariate vector autoregression [VAR(1)] demand process in a two-stage supply chain consisting of one supplier and two retailers. The impacts of the correlation parameters of the demand process, the correlation coefficient between the two error terms, and the variances of the error terms on the bullwhip effect were investigated. As such, the measure of the bullwhip effect was established using an analytical approach in which the minimum mean square error (MMSE) forecasting method and the base stock policy were applied to all members of the supply chain. Numerical experiments were then conducted to illustrate the behavior of the bullwhip effect with respect to various parameters of the demand processes to see in which situations the bullwhip effect would be absent. In addition, an evaluation of the inventory variance ratio was analyzed.     

信息共享受限条件下的供应链网络系统牛鞭效应控制策略

研究在信息共享受限条件下供应链网络库存系统的牛鞭效应控制问题,建立了包括市场需求、信息可获得性、信息及时性等不确定性因素的库存网络系统状态转移模型,从系统内部动力学机制的角度分析了牛鞭效应的成因,提出了动态库存控制策略,并给出了策略参数设计的线性矩阵不等式组算法.运用系统稳定性理论,深入分析了信息共享对牛鞭效应的影响,并通过仿真结果验证了库存控制策略的有效性和实用性.     

Smoothing inventory decision rules in seasonal supply chains

A major cause of supply chain deficiencies is the bullwhip effect, which implies that demand variability amplifies as one moves upstream in supply chains. Smoothing inventory decision rules have been recognized as the most powerful approach to counteract the bullwhip effect. Although several studies have evaluated these smoothing rules with respect to several demand processes, focusing mainly on the smoothing order-up-to (OUT) replenishment rule, less attention has been devoted to investigate their effectiveness in seasonal supply chains. This research addresses this gap by investigating the impact of the smoothing OUT on the seasonal supply chain performances. A simulation study has been conducted to evaluate and compare the smoothing OUT with the traditional OUT (no smoothing), both integrated with the Holt-Winters (HW) forecasting method, in a four-echelon supply chain experiences seasonal demand modified by random variation. The results show that the smoothing OUT replenishment rule is superior to the traditional OUT, in terms of the bullwhip effect, inventory variance ratio and average fill rate, especially when the seasonal cycle is small. In addition, the sensitivity analysis reveals that employing the smoothing replenishment rules reduces the impact of the demand parameters and the poor selection of the forecasting parameters on the ordering and inventory stability. Therefore, seasonal supply chain managers are strongly recommended to adopt the smoothing replenishment rules. Further managerial implications have been derived from the results.     

Decentralized and centralized model predictive control to reduce the bullwhip effect in supply chain management

Mitigating the bullwhip effect is one of crucial problems in supply chain management. In this research, centralized and decentralized model predictive control strategies are applied to control inventory positions and to reduce the bullwhip effect in a benchmark four-echelon supply chain. The supply chain under consideration is described by discrete dynamic models characterized by balance equations on product and information flows with an ordering policy serving as the control schemes. In the decentralized control strategy, a MPC-EPSAC (Extended Prediction Self-Adaptive Control) approach is used to predict the changes in the inventory position levels. A closed-form solution of an optimal ordering decision for each echelon is obtained by locally minimizing a cost function, which consists of the errors between predicted inventory position levels and their setpoints, and a weighting function that penalizes orders. The single model predictive controller used in centralized control strategy optimizes globally and finds an optimal ordering policy for each echelon. The controller relies on a linear discrete-time state-space model to predict system outputs. But the predictions are approached by either of two multi-step predictors depending on whether the states of the controller model are directly observed or not. The objective function takes a quadratic form and thus the resulting optimization problem can be solved via standard quadratic programming method. The comparisons on performances of the two MPC strategies are illustrated with a numerical example.     

自适应控制对多级库存延迟问题的优化研究

针对在随机需求下交货延迟所导致供应链多级库存系统库存积压、缺货和牛鞭效应等问题,建立了基于自适应控制算法的多级库存动态优化模型。通过泰勒展开和拉布拉斯变换建立了基于APIOBPCS策略考虑延迟的动态多级库存控制模型;由Lyapunov渐进稳定性定理设计了一种适用于多级库存的模型参考自适应控制算法,其中以无交货延迟的参考库存模型作为目标,通过调节线性补偿函数和自适应控制率,逐渐缩小实际库存模型与参考库存模型间的输出误差,以此削弱交货延迟对多级库存模型的影响;通过实证数据验证了模型参考自适应控制对一个三级供应链库存系统的动态优化效果。仿真结果表明,自适应控制下的无信息共享多级APIOBPCS库存系统缺货全部归零,牛鞭效应下降40.7%。在不增加企业运营投入的前提下,通过自适应控制算法,优化资源配置,动态削弱了交货延迟对多级库存的影响,提升了供应链运营效率。     

Fuzzy knowledge-based token-ordering policies for bullwhip effect management in supply chains

The “Bullwhip Effect” is a well-known example of supply chain inefficiencies and refers to demand amplification as moving up toward upstream echelons in a supply chain. This paper concentrates on representing a robust token-based ordering policy to facilitate information sharing in supply chains in order to manage the bullwhip effect. Takagi–Sugeno–Kang and hybrid multiple-input single-output fuzzy models are proposed to model the mechanism of token ordering in the token-based ordering policy. The main advantage of proposed fuzzy models is that they eliminate the exogenous and constant variables from the procedure of obtaining the optimal amount of tokens which should be ordered in every period. These fuzzy approaches model the mentioned mechanism through a push–pull policy. A four-echelon SC with fuzzy lead time and unlimited production capacity and inventory is considered to survey the outcomes. Numerical experiments confirm the effectiveness of proposed policies in alleviating BWE, inventory costs and variations.     

The impact of information sharing and inventory control coordination on supply chain performances

The lack of coordination in supply chains can cause various inefficiencies like bullwhip effect and inventory instability. Extensive researches quantified the value of sharing and forecasting of customer demand, considering that all the supply chain partners can have access to the same information. However, only few studies devoted to identify the value of limited collaboration or information visibility, considering their impact on the overall supply chain performances for local and global service level. This paper attempts to fill this gap by investigating the interaction of collaboration and coordination in a four-echelon supply chain under different scenarios of information sharing level. The results of the simulation study show to what extent the bullwhip effect and the inventory variance increase and amplify when a periodic review order-up-to level policy applies, noting that more benefits generate when coordination starts at downstream echelons. A factorial design confirmed the importance of information sharing and quantified its interactions with inventory control parameters, proving that a poor forecasting and definition of safety stock levels have a significant contribution to the instability across the chain. These results provide useful implications for supply chain managers on how to control and drive supply chain performances.     

Bullwhip effect measure in a seasonal supply chain

In this study, the bullwhip effect in a seasonal supply chain was quantified by considering a two echelon supply chain which consists of one supplier and one retailer. The external demand occurring at the customer was assumed to follow a SARMA (1, 0) X (0, 1) _s scheme, a seasonal autoregressive-moving average process, while the retailer employed an base-stock policy to replenish their inventory. The demand forecast was performed with a SARMA (1, 0) X (0, 1) _s using the minimum mean-square error forecasting technique. In order to develop the bullwhip effect measure in a seasonal supply chain, the lead time demand forecast, forecast error, and the optimal inventory policy at the retailer were derived in sequence. The variance of order quantity based on these results was obtained. Then, various properties were derived by analyzing the bullwhip effect measure. Specifically, it was determined that the seasonal cycle plays an important role in bullwhip effect under a seasonal supply chain. The findings also point out that the replenishment lead time must be less than the seasonal cycle in order to reduce the bullwhip effect. Therefore, the lead time needs to be reduced through collaboration between the retailer and supplier.