萍乡市城市地表径流污染物浓度变化特征分析及数值模拟

以海绵城市建设试点城市萍乡市地表径流污染物（以SS和TP为代表）浓度变化特征与预测模型适应性为研究对象,根据两场次的降雨资料及实测径流污染物浓度数据,确定所建地表径流污染物浓度变化预测模型Sartor-Boyd和p/r模型的参数,并模拟和分析了地表径流污染物浓度变化过程。结果表明：萍乡市地表径流污染物（SS和TP）浓度受初始冲刷效应的影响,降雨过程前期随雨强的峰值而达到最大,降雨过程后期污染物浓度受雨强的峰值波动影响较小;受模型参数的影响,Sartor-Boyd模型模拟值的统计学指标RPD、R²、NSE均小于p/r模型的相应指标,p/r模型对萍乡市降雨地表径流污染物排放规律的预测精度较好,模型可信度较高。结合萍乡市地区降雨状况建立的p/r数学模型可为该区域海绵城市建设过程中地表径流污染物浓度的预测及管理提供参考。     

淤地坝对流域水沙影响模拟研究

使用SWAT模型,结合淤地坝特点对模型自带的水库模型进行修正来设置淤地坝模块,研究淤地坝对流域径流和输沙的影响,并在内蒙古十大孔兑之一的西柳沟流域进行模拟和验证。以1980-1990年为率定期、2006-2015年为验证期,龙头拐水文站模拟径流量和输沙量与实测值拟合较好,线性拟合系数R²和纳什效率系数E_NS均超过0.6,说明SWAT模型中的水库模型可用于淤地坝模拟。结果表明：其他参数不变的情况下,淤地坝对流域的径流量有一定影响,能够拦截一部分径流量,对流域输沙量的影响巨大,减沙效果明显;淤地坝在一定程度上能影响流域的汇流过程,使得汛期后的月份中出现模拟径流量大于实测径流量的现象;相较于经验公式法,SWAT模型能够提高淤地坝对流域水沙影响的模拟精度;为更好地利用SWAT模型模拟淤地坝对流域径流和输沙的影响,淤地坝模块仍有待改进。     

沙颍河流域径流过程模拟与径流组分变化特征

采用线性关系和非线性关系对沙颍河流域的地下水退水曲线进行拟合对比,基于改进的SWAT(soil and water assessment tool)模型对沙颍河流域径流过程进行模拟,并采用Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数、百分比偏差及确定系数等3个指标对模拟效果进行评价,在此基础上,分析沙颍河流域径流过程的年内和年际变化特征。结果表明:沙颍河流域地下水退水曲线非线性关系拟合比线性拟合效果好,基于此建立的模型模拟结果较好;沙颍河流域地表径流、壤中流和基流分别占径流量的55.5%、25.4%和19.1%,冬季径流主要由基流补给,径流年内分配与降水变化基本一致,具有明显的季节变化和不均匀性;1961-2014年径流量呈上升趋势,地表径流和基流的波动与径流的变化基本一致,呈上升趋势;1961-2014年壤中流呈下降趋势。     

基于相似流域法的SWAT模型模拟黄河中游无资料地区径流

选用黄河中游两个小流域,基于相似流域法探求分布式水文模型SWAT在黄河中游小流域无资料地区径流模拟的适用性。通过距离、流域面积相近及属性相似的方法,用已知流域率定参数移植到无资料流域进行径流模拟。选取2009-2013年的日径流与月径流进行模型率定,以效率系数(NS)和决定系数(R2)为评价指标,率定出4个模型敏感系数,并用2014-2016年的日径流与月径流进行模型验证。结果显示:率定期月径流模拟的R2为0. 76,NS为0. 70;日径流模拟的R2为0. 70,NS为0. 64;验证期月径流模拟的R2为0. 82,NS为0. 74;日径流模拟的R2为0. 78,NS为0. 68。说明基于相似流域法的SWAT模型对于无资料的小流域月径流量模拟具有很好的适用性。     

Effects of Urbanization Factors on Model Parameters

This study mainly explores effects of urbanization factors on hydrograph parameters. Urbanization impacts of the developing watershed are evaluated based on rainfall–runoff simulations. A total of 51 rainfall–runoff events occurred from 1966 to 2002. Forty of these were calibrated, and effects of urbanization factors on runoff hydrographs resulting from a simple hydrological model were assessed. The block Kriging method was used to estimate the mean rainfall of the Wu-Tu watershed, and its hourly excesses were calculated by using the non-linear programming method. The remaining 11 cases were used to test the established relationships. The calibration and verification results confirm that the integral methods used in this study effectively illustrate the hydrological and geomorphic conditions in complex urbanization processes. Parameter n responds more sensitively than parameter k to increasing impervious areas and population densities. Additionally, parameter n responds more strongly to imperviousness than to population. Therefore, an impervious area is an important reference for analyzing hydrological changes of urbanization in the Wu-Tu watershed.     

目标函数对滦河流域SWAT模型径流模拟不确定性的影响

针对水文模型参数和径流模拟结果不确定性问题,选取2Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数(NSE)、改进的决定系数(R_m²)、相对误差(PBIAS)、Kling-Gupta效率系数(KGE)4种目标函数,对构建的滦河流域潘家口水库上游SWAT模型进行参数率定及验证,分析了不同目标函数下模型参数的敏感性差异及径流模拟的不确定性。结果表明：参数敏感性会随迭代次数增加和抽样范围变化发生改变,不同目标函数下率定的参数范围和最优值显著不同;NSE和KGE作为目标函数在各站点径流模拟中更稳健,分别表现出较高的模拟精度和较低的模拟不确定性。     

RBF神经网络模型在砂土液化判别中的应用研究

以时松孝次收集的砂土液化数据为研究对象,选取黏粒含量ρ_c、相对密实度D_r、临界深度d_s、竖向有效应力σ′、地下水位d_w、地震震级M、最大地面水平加速度α_max和标准贯入次数SPT-N等8个砂土液化的主要影响因素作为RBF神经网络的输入参数,利用MATLAB7.0中的神经网络工具箱,对部分样本数据进行训练和测试。并利用建立的RBF神经网络模型分析了各因素对砂土液化的影响规律。结果表明：砂土液化判别指标随α_max的增加而增大,随SPT-N和d_w的增加而减小。研究成果表明,建立的RBF网络模型完全满足砂土液化判别的精度要求,能够精确模拟输入和输出之间复杂的非线性映射关系,具有较高的预测精度,具有重要的工程应用价值。     

系统微分响应参数率定方法在建阳流域SWAT模型中的应用

利用基于系统微分响应理论的参数率定方法率定闽江建阳流域SWAT模型,通过流域1992—2000年日资料验证了该方法的实际应用效果,采用纳什效率系数(NSE)、偏差百分比(PBIAS)和相关系数r作为评价指标对率定后的SWAT模型模拟精度进行评价,并与传统利用SUFI-2方法率定得到的SWAT模型模拟结果进行对比分析。结果表明：系统微分响应方法率定的参数在建阳流域的日径流模拟中表现较好,率定期和检验期NSE均为0.65以上,径流量PBIAS在5%以内,r在0.65以上;利用系统微分响应率定参数方法率定SWAT模型参数在实际应用中可行,且效率与精度均高于传统的SUFI-2方法。     

基于BP神经网络的MIKE SHE模型参数率定

为了更精细地对水文全过程进行描述和解析,更准确地构建分布式水文模型,以丹麦Karup流域为例,对MIKE SHE模型的饱和导水率、饱和带水平水力传导系数、河床透水系数进行了参数率定,模拟流域的日径流过程。结果表明:基于BP神经网络反分析的参数率定方法比MIKE SHE模型参数自动率定计算得到的均方根误差RMSE小,模型效率系数Ens更接近1;采用BP神经网络反演率定参数后,3组测试样本的日径流模拟过程的RMSE分别为0.04,0.03,0.08 m³/s,Ens均为0.99,且模拟结果能较好地反映径流的实际变化趋势。因此,这种基于BP神经网络反分析的参数率定方法对构建分布式水文模型具有一定的价值。     

The artificial recharge of groundwater: A solution by successive variations of steady states

The artificial recharge of groundwater aims at the modification of water quality, an increase of groundwater resources, and the optimization of the exploitation and recovery of contaminated aquifers. The purpose of this work is to develop a new mathematical model for the problem of an artificial recharge well, using the method of successive variations of steady states. Applying this method, one arrives at an expression of time as a double integral. This integral contains the time-dependent radius of the recharge boundary and the piezometric head of the well, calculated with the finite-element method. The new model is simple and useful, and can be applied to many practical problems, using the designed dimensionless graphs.Notations A area of the finite element (m²) - c the Euler constant (0.5772156649...) - e index of the finite element - E _i the exponential integral function - F _j nodal values of the functionF - h piezometric head, (m) - h ₀ piezometric head at timet=0 (m) - h _w piezometric head on the well contour (m) - i, j, k nodal indices of the finite element - K hydraulic contactivity (ms^–1) - N _i interpolation function - Q discharge (m³ s^–1) - r cylindrical coordinate (m) - r ₀ the action radius of the well (m) - r _w the radius of the well (m) - S the effective porosity - t the time (s) - T the transmissivity of the aquifer (m²s^–1) - V the stored water volume (m³) - x, y, dummy variables     

Estimation of Clark’s Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph Parameters and Development of Direct Surface Runoff Hydrograph

We present a method to estimate Time of Concentration (T _c) and Storage Coefficient (R) to develop Clark’s Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph (CIUH). T _c is estimated from Time Area Diagram of the catchment and R is determined using optimization approach based on Downhill Simplex technique (code written in FORTRAN). Four different objective functions are used in optimization to determine R. The sum of least squares objective function is used in a novel way by relating it to slope of a linear regression best fit line drawn between observed and simulated peak discharge values to find R. Physical parameters (delineation, land slope, stream lengths and associated drainage areas) of the catchment are derived from SPOT satellite imageries of the basin using ERDAS: Arc GIS is used for geographic data processing. Ten randomly selected rainfall–runoff events are used for calibration and five for validation. Using CIUH, a Direct surface runoff hydrograph (DSRH) is developed. Kaha catchment (5,598 km²), part of Indus river system, located in semi-arid region of Pakistan and dominated by hill torrent flows is used to demonstrate the applicability of proposed approach. Model results during validation are very good with model efficiency of more than 95% and root mean square error of less than 6%. Impact of variation in model parameters T _c and R on DSRH is investigated. It is identified that DSRH is more sensitive to R compared to T _c. Relatively equal values of R and T _c reveal that shape of DSRH for a large catchment depends on both runoff diffusion and translation flow effects. The runoff diffusion effect is found to be dominant.     

Assessing Impacts of Conservation Measures on Watershed Hydrology Using MIKE SHE Model in the Face of Climate Change

Climate change triggers changes in temperature, precipitation, evapotranspiration, etc. and has a significant impact on water resources in many regions. Considering the increasing scarcity of water as a result of climate change, conservation of water and groundwater recharge have become crucial factors for water resources planning and management. In this paper, an attempt is made to study the detailed hydrological behaviour of a treated watershed using physically based distributed hydrological modelling system MIKE SHE to assess the impact of conservation measures on watershed hydrology considering future climate change. Three hypothetical management scenarios are simulated for the period 2010–2040. RegCM4 regional climate model is used in the study for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Detailed hydrological water balance is extracted for individual years from 1979 to 2009 to compare relevant components. The evaluation for base period shows 10.06% reduction in surface runoff and 11.33% enhancement in groundwater recharge. Further simulation with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios show notable reduction in surface runoff and increase in groundwater recharge. The structures in the micro-watershed influence the surface runoff and increase infiltration into the soil, resulting in higher groundwater recharge. MIKE SHE simulations for various structures management scenarios establish the role of conservation measures in reducing surface runoff and enhancing groundwater recharge under substantial effect of climate change. The results will assist in decision-making on watershed development plans in quantitative terms, including planning for water conservation measures in the face of climate change.

     

Utility of Ten-Day Climate Model Ensemble Simulations for Water Resources Applications in Korean Watersheds

We demonstrate the use of a quantitative measure of the effectiveness of using climate model simulations of surface precipitation and temperature for water resources applications involving extremes of watershed average precipitation and temperature, and watershed discharge. This diagnostic measure is considered in association with the use of climate information to condition ensemble seasonal predictions of watershed variables. Seven watersheds in the Korean peninsula constitute the application sites. The climate model effectiveness is expressed by a utility index E_P that measures the ability of the climate model simulations of an indicator variable (i.e., nodal precipitation or temperature) to discriminate observed distributions of the highs and lows of a watershed target variable (i.e., mean areal precipitation and temperature as well as outlet discharge). Monte Carlo simulations provide estimates of the significance of the E_p values. For apparently the first time, ten-member ensemble simulations of daily surface precipitation and temperature from the Korean Meteorological Agency climate model are used to evaluate the climate-model utility index E_P for a temporal interval of 10 days for each application watershed. The results show that, in spite of the high uncertainty of climate simulations, there are several Korean watersheds that can benefit from the use of climate model simulations of high temporal resolution for planning and management studies that involve precipitation, temperature and discharge. In particular, seasonal ensemble prediction of watershed variables stands to gain from conditioning on high-temporal resolution climate forecasts.     

基于EFAST方法的寒旱区流域水文过程参数敏感性分析

寒旱区流域受降雨径流和融雪径流联合补给,坡面产流和融雪过程可能对流域水文产生重要影响。以分布式水文模型SWAT为平台,选取模型多个参数为关键因子,借助EFAST方法探索融雪期(3月-5月)、非融雪期(6月-次年2月)的径流峰值以及全时段径流均值的参数敏感性,这些参数涉及降雨径流、积雪消融、蒸散发、下渗、地下水补给和壤中流等多种水文过程。同时,结合流域特征及参数物理意义,深入分析参数敏感的原因,并揭示参数背后的水文过程对开都河流域产汇流的重要影响。研究发现,坡面产流、下渗以及积雪消融等水文过程对开都河流域水循环具有重要影响。此外,对于寒旱区流域重要的融雪过程参数,其总敏感性显著而一阶敏感性不显著,表明通过EFAST方法得到的水文模型参数总敏感性更为合理。结果揭示了流域水文敏感因子及关键过程,为探索水循环机理,水文科学预测、管理流域水资源奠定了基础。     

开阳南江大峡谷岩溶地下水补径排研究

贵州开阳南江大峡谷景区岩溶地下水资源丰富,为独特的岩溶峡谷喀斯特地貌,为了查明该区地下水径流特征,特开展此次研究。在野外1∶10 000水文地质调查的基础上,通过水文地质剖面,结合NaCl示踪试验以及13组地下水样的水化学离子与总溶解性固体(TDS)测试结果进行综合分析,分析研究区地下水补径排特征。结果显示:(1)区内地下水的补给主要来自于大气降水与地表水,具有就地补给、就近泉点排泄循环的特点;(2)兰家寨段地下水受构造控制强烈,火龙潭(SQ2)上升泉同时作为F2断层两盘地下岩溶水的排泄点;(3)梯子岩泉作为断裂带泉也接受顶部洼地与落水洞处地表水的补给,并且存在一条地下岩溶管道;(4)大新场-屯上段鱼梁河与白安河同时作为峡谷两岸的排泄基面,不存在水力联系;(5)坡顶上-老河沟段之间地层的凸起转折对SW向与NE向地下水具有分流作用,构成地下水分水岭并使NE向地下水向老河沟方向径流。研究成果可为该区域供水提供地质依据。     

基于Nash 瞬时单位线法的渗透坡面汇流模拟

基于Nash瞬时单位线法,结合Horton土壤入渗经验模型,并考虑植被对降雨的截流作用,建立了渗透坡面汇流计算的数学模型。以矩形坡面为研究对象,基于其汇流时间-面积特性,结合等流时线法,推导建立了Nash瞬时单位线参数n、K的确定方法。其中,参数n的值为1.0,K的值与坡面汇流时间相等,相当于单一线性水库。应用本文建立的模型,对林地渗透坡面降雨径流进行计算,并与实测值进行比较。结果表明,计算值与实测值的变化趋势基本吻合,初步验证了本文方法的合理性。     

Analysis of soluble chemical transfer from soil to surface runoff and incomplete mixing parameter identification

A two-layer mathematical model proposed by Tong et al.(2010) was used to predict soluble chemical transfer from soil into surface runoff with ponded water on the soil surface. Infiltration-related incomplete mixing parameter g and runoff-related incomplete mixing parameter a in the analytical solution of the Tong et al.(2010) model were assumed to be constant. In this study, different laboratory experimental data of soluble chemical concentration in surface runoff from initially unsaturated and saturated soils were used to identify the variables g and a based on the analytical solution of the model. The values of g and a without occurrence of surface runoff were constant and equal to their values at the moment when the surface runoff started. It was determined from the results that g decreases with the increase of the ponded water depth, and when the initial volumetric water content is closer to the saturated water content, there is less variation of parameter g after the occurrence of surface runoff. As infiltration increases, the soluble chemical concentration in surface runoff decreases. The values of parameter a range from0 to 1 for the fine loam and sand under the controlled infiltration conditions, while it can increase to a very large value, greater than 1, for the sand under the restrained infiltration conditions, and the analytical solution of the model is not valid for experimental soil without any infiltration if a is expected to be less than or equal to 1. The soluble chemical concentrations predicted from the model with variable incomplete mixing parameters g and a are more accurate than those from the model with constant γ and a values.     

Single Event Watershed Model for Simulating Runoff Hydrograph in Desert Regions

This study is aimed to use the available limited meteorologicaland hydrological data for two catchments located in the westernIraqi desert, to develop and apply a simple single event watershed model to simulate and predict the surface runoff hydrograph. The single event watershed model is based on the water balance equation. The inputs to the model are rainfall,evaporation, and soil properties data. The Resonbrock optimization technique is employed to determine the optimum parameters of the model. Also a simple and a modified versionof this model is suggested and tested for the study area. Theavailable rainfall and runoff data in these catchments have beenused in calibrating and testing the model. In model testing, theoptimized parameters for a particular storm are used to test themodel performance on other available storms and so on. Sensitivity analysis has been used to determine the most sensitive parameters.     

Generation of Runoff Components from Exponential Expressions of Serial Reservoirs

Taiwan frequently experiences heavy rainfall events during the summer. The rainfall–runoff regeneration is an important job in specific areas where excessive rainfall causes serious flooding. The primary goal of this study is to generate and understand runoff components of the watershed outlet by using a conceptual model of three linear cascade reservoirs. The conceptual model is needless to determine direct runoff and excess rainfall in advance. Every linear cascade reservoir has an independent response function with an exponential expression. The outflows of the linear reservoirs represent streamflow components of a watershed outlet during rainfall–runoff processes, in which surface runoff is considered as quick runoff, whereas subsurface and groundwater runoffs are slow runoffs. In the simulation process, mean rainfall as model inputs were estimated using the block Kriging method. Available recordings of 68 rainfall–runoff events during 1966–2002 were used as the study sample. Fifty-four events were calibrated to determine the best hydrograph parameters and were used to compare simulation precision resulting from the model with those based on the Nash with NLP. The efficacy of the proposed model was verified using the remaining 14 observed rainfall–runoff data from an actual basin. The seven averaged parameters, which were applied for verification, show that the IUH shape of quick flow is more sharp-pointed with the peak shifted forward than that of slow flow. In rainfall–runoff processes, peak discharge of quick runoff is far larger than that of slow runoff, the time it takes for the peak discharge for a quick flow is earlier than that for a slow runoff, and the base time of a slow flow is longer than that of a quick flow. Furthermore, this study also found: (1) the base time of a slow runoff hydrograph is the same as that of a total runoff hydrograph; (2) the base time of a quick runoff hydrograph is contrariwise to the value of the soil antecedent moisture; (3) an amount of quick runoff is directly proportional to that of total runoff. These analytical results reveal that the model used in this study is suitable to evaluate hydrological conditions in this and other watersheds and can be further applied to watershed management in Taiwan.     

太湖地区典型小流域地下水储量动态模拟与分析

对太湖地区典型小流域的近地表地质特征进行系统野外试验,分析近地表土层土壤和岩层结构特征,初步确定了含水层计算参数;采用三维地下水流数值模拟方法概化水文地质条件,识别与验证模型参数。结果表明:地表水补给地下水的量约是地下水补给地表水总量的2倍,山溪型小流域的地表地下水交互过程趋于单向交换,即河道水补给地下水。从含水层储水量变化看,除去蒸散发,通过地下通道流失的水量占据总水量的相当比重,且地下储水的减少量主要依赖降雨入渗进行补给。所建立的模型能够较好地反映研究区实际的水文地质条件,揭示地表水和地下水的交互量的变化过程,并定量研究流域水量平衡动态关系,可为变化环境下的地下水保护和滨湖区的地下水潜流计算研究提供预测分析依据。