共查询到18条相似文献,搜索用时 98 毫秒
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基于小波分析的导弹装备备件需求组合预测 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
针对导弹装备备件需求呈现非线性、非平稳的特征,提出了把小波分析理论应用于导弹装备备件需求预测的构想.首先根据总体评价指标来确定小波最佳分解级数,将备件需求时间序列分解到不同尺度上以减少原始序列的随机性和波动性;然后对具有平稳特性的高频信息用改进动态自适应隔代映射遗传算法和阻尼最小二乘法优化的ARMA模型进行预测,而对反映整体趋势的低频信息用GM(1,1)模型进行预测;再将各模型的预测结果进行叠加,从而得到原始序列的预测值.最后通过导弹装备备件需求的实例,验证了本方法的有有效性和可行性. 相似文献
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备件是实施装备维护和修理的重要物资基础,是影响装备战场抢修能力的重要因素。以某型地空导弹武器系统的平均战场抢修时间最短为目标,运用线性规划方法,确定最优化的维修备件携带量。 相似文献
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准确的备件库存量预测是合理有效地进行备件保障等各项综合保障工作的基础。为了实现装备备件的精确化保障,提高保障效率,降低保障成本,介绍了一种根据部件的维修性、可靠性参数确定备件储备量的解析算法模型。基于Exspect平台实现了Petri网对一次任务的仿真算法,求出了备件储备量,并对不同的备件保障方案进行了对比,采用逐个对比的方法得出库存量的最优值。通过最后的计算实例,对仿真方法进行备件储备量确定的可行性进行了验证。 相似文献
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备件预测方法在装备保障中的应用 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
备件是维修装备及其主要成品所需的元器件、零件、组件或部件等的统称。文章阐述了备件供应在装备保障中的重要性,分析了装备备件预测方法技术特性和影响因素,提出了新的装备备件预测方法,并结合实际工程案例,指出了该备件预测方法在实际工程应用中的注意事项。 相似文献
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对空空导弹基层级备件的计算模型进行了研究.并通过工程实例,对基层可更换单元弹上机电分系统级备件的计算模型进行分析,提出应按正态分布模型进行空空导弹分系统级备件计算的结论. 相似文献
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A joint preventive maintenance and spare parts provisioning strategy is suggested for a failure prone system. Replacements are carried-out at failure, if spare parts are available, and at spare parts replenishment delivery instants. Spare parts are provisioned according to an (s, Q) control policy. The ordering parameters, and preventive maintenance interval are derived from a mathematical model which aims at maximizing the system's availability under a budget constraint. The model takes into account the system lifetime distribution, the preventive and corrective maintenance costs and durations, as well as the total spare parts inventory management cost. Unlike classical inventory management models, the s-expected total cost is derived using the system lifetime distribution. Because each demand for spare parts is triggered by failure, the probabilities of shortage, and surplus will be evaluated based on the system failure distribution rather than the demand distribution during the lead-time. Numerical results have been obtained for an illustrative example. 相似文献
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基于最小二乘支持向量机的飞机备件多元分类 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
飞机后续备件配置直接关系到装备的战备完好率和寿命周期费用,对备件的正确分类是进行备件配置决策的前提。支持向量机是采用结构风险最小化原则代替传统统计学中的基于大样本的经验风险最小化原则的新型机器学习方法,具有出色的学习分类能力和推广能力。研究了新型支持向量机算法-最小二乘支持向量机,设计了基于多元分类的最小二乘支持向量机,在此基础上,建立了飞机备件多元分类模型,并对某机型的备件进行了分类。结果表明,基于最小二乘支持向量机的飞机备件多元分类方法是有效、可行的。 相似文献
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基于BP-MC模型的大型机电设备备件需求预测研究 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
针对大型机电设备备件需求具有非线性和随机波动性的特点,建立基于马尔科夫链修正的BP神经网络预测模型.以提高模型的预测精度。通过对训练样本的学习,利用BP神经网络实现了对备件需求时间序列的滚动预测,同时得到了实测值与预测值的相对误差;在此基础上利用马尔科夫链对相对误差进行修正,有效地提高了预测结果的精度。并将该模型应用于实际预测中,结果表明该模型优于BP神经网络单项预测模型,具有精度高、科学可靠的特点,为大型机电设备备件需求预测提供了新的途径。 相似文献
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随着经济的发展,我们国家的电气事业也不断的发展,电气自动化空时设备的可靠性就成为了一个重要性的话题;从我国电气自动化控制设备现状和我国电气自动化控制设备必要性为出发点,然后分析了电气自动化控制设备可靠性的检测,最后从电气自动化控制设备提高设计的可靠性、合理选用零部件、电子元器件的选择三个方面探究了提高电气自动化控制设备可靠性的策略. 相似文献
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This paper reports partial results and extensions of a study at Clemson University from 1980 December to 1982 May. The purpose was to develop an integrated model set to aid in evaluating design alternatives on the availability and logistic support requirements of major weapon systems. The model set includes the Network Repair Level Analysis (NRLA) and MOD-Metric models. System design decisions concern the nominal reliability of components, the extent to which components are hierarchially designed, the accessibility of components, and whether the component will be repaired or discarded when it fails. System design includes the design of the logistic support system and its relation to the hardware. Design alternatives should be carefully investigated to determine the effects that each would have on ownership costs, performance, and availability. This model set was applied to the components of the air refueling boom of the KC-135A tanker aircraft. The 2-echelon, 2-indenture inventory system used at times by the US Air Force is assumed. In particular we report: 1) the effects of component reliability on spare stock levels and spare parts costs, and 2) the impact of component reliability on the level at which repair takes place. The models have similar data requirements and they yield useful conclusions. However, there are some difficulties. The spares decisions from MOD-Metric are not necessarily compatible with NRLA because the MOD-Metric analysis is far more sophisticated. 相似文献