Future Water Supply and Demand Management Options in the Athabasca Oil Sands

The Athabasca River Basin, home to Canada's growing oil sands mining industry, faces challenging trade‐offs between energy production and water security. Water demand from the oil sands mining industry is projected to increase as climate change is projected to alter the seasonal freshwater supply. In this study, a range of water management options are developed to investigate the potential trade‐offs between the scale of bitumen production and industry growth, water storage requirements, and environmental protection for the aquatic ecosystems, under projections of mid‐century climate change. It is projected that water storage will be required to supplement river withdrawals to maintain continuous bitumen production under the impacts of future climate warming. If high growth in future bitumen production and water demand is the priority, then building sufficient water storage capacity to meet industry demand will be comparable to a week of lost revenue because of interrupted production. If environmental protection is prioritized instead, it will require over nine times the water storage costs to maintain water demand under a high industry growth trajectory. Future water use decisions will need to first, determine the scale of industry and environmental protection, and second, balance the costs of water storage against lost revenue because of water shortages that limit bitumen production. This physically based assessment of future water trade‐offs can inform water policy, water management decisions, and climate change adaptation plans, with applicability to other regions facing trade‐offs between industrial development and ecosystem water needs. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Development of a Demand Driven Hydro-climatic Model for Drought Planning

In recent years, droughts with increasing severity and frequency have been experienced around the world due to climate change effects. Water planning and management during droughts needs to deal with water demand variability, uncertainties in streamflow prediction, conflicts over water resources allocation, and the absence of necessary emergency schemes in drought situations. Reservoirs could play an important role in drought mitigation; therefore, development of an algorithm for operation of reservoirs in drought periods could help to mitigate the drought impacts by reducing the expected water shortages. For this purpose, the probable drought’s characteristics and their variations in response to factors such as climate change should be incorporated. This study aims at developing a contingency planning scheme for operation of reservoirs in drought periods using hedging rules with the objective of decreasing the maximum water deficit. The case study for evaluation of the performance of the proposed algorithm is the Sattarkhan reservoir in the Aharchay watershed, located in the northwestern part of Iran. The trend evaluations of the hydro-climatic variables show that the climate change has already affected streamflow in the region and has increased water scarcity and drought severity. To incorporate the climate change study in reservoir planning; streamflow should be simulated under climate change impacts. For this purpose, the climatic variables including temperature and precipitation in the future under climate change impacts are simulated using downscaled GCM (General Circulation Model) outputs to derive scenarios for possible future drought events. Then a hydrological model is developed to simulate the river streamflow, based on the downscaled data. The results show that the proposed methodology leads to less water deficit and decreases the drought damages in the study area.     

Identifying Prominent Explanatory Variables for Water Demand Prediction Using Artificial Neural Networks: A Case Study of Bangkok

The water demand of a city is a complex and non linear function of climatic, socioeconomic, institutional and management variables. Identifying the prominent variables among these is essential in order to adequately predict water demand, and to plan and manage water resources and the supply systems. Further, the need for such identification becomes more pronounced when data constraints arise. The objective of this study was to establish, using correlation and sensitivity analyses, a minimum set of variables required to predict water demand with significant accuracy. Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) models were developed to predict short-term (daily) and medium-term (monthly) demands for Bangkok. Using meteorological and water utility variables for short-term prediction, and different ANN architecture, 16 sets of models with a 1-, 2- and 3-day lead period were developed. Although the best fit models for the three lead periods used different input variables, prediction accuracies over 98% were achieved by using only the historic daily demand (HDD) as the explanatory variable. Similarly, for medium-term prediction, 11 sets of models with lead periods of 1-, 2- and 6-months were developed, using meteorological, water utility and socioeconomic variables. The best fit models for the three lead periods used all explanatory variables but prediction accuracies of more than 98% were obtained by downsizing the variable set. The meteorological variables have a greater influence on medium-term prediction as compared to short-term prediction, suggesting that future water demand in Bangkok could be significantly affected by climate change.     

The Cauvery river basin in southern India: major challenges and possible solutions in the 21st century

India is facing major challenges in its water resources management (WRM) sector. Water shortages are attributed to issues such as an explosion in population, rapid urbanization and industrialization, environmental degradation and inefficient water use, all aggravated by changing climate and its impacts on demand, supply and water quality. This paper focuses on the contemporary and future situation in the Cauvery river basin in Southern India, shared by different states, predominantly Karnataka and Tamil Nadu. As water issues largely fall under the authority of the states, inter-state water disputes have a long tradition in the Cauvery river basin. Future changes in precipitation during the two monsoon seasons will only increase these tensions. Both states depend on the arrival of these monsoon rains to water their crops and to replenish the groundwater. The paper identifies the major challenges and general possible solutions for sustainable WRM within the river basin. It synthesises the relevant literature, describes practices that should be addressed in the scope of integrated WRM--including water availability increase and demand management--and stresses the need for further quantitative analyses.     

Optimizing Water Management for Irrigation Under Climate Uncertainty: Evaluating Operational and Structural Alternatives in the Lower Republican River Basin,Kansas, USA

Structural and operational management methods are used to meet water demands in watersheds around the world. Most river systems are affected by reservoirs, dams, or other engineering structures, and decisions regarding their construction and operation are made in advance of knowing what water demands will be. Numerical models are used to predict future water needs and evaluate the effectiveness of water management strategies. It is important to consider a variety of management methods and future environmental conditions to ensure future demands can be met. In this work, a coupled surface water operations and hydrologic model of the Lower Republican River Basin in portions of Nebraska and Kansas, USA is used to evaluate the ability of several water management strategies, including structural and operational, to meet future demands of a water-stressed agricultural basin under a variety of future climate scenarios. Simulations indicate recent administrative and operational changes to the distribution of water between Nebraska and Kansas have significantly decreased water shortages for irrigation districts in Kansas and will continue to do so. Simulations also indicate that structural alternative of reservoir expansion is most effective at minimizing shortages to demands under a repeat of historical climate conditions. However, an operational alternative of increasing water supplies for Kansas' exclusive use, such as those historically purchased under the Warren Act (US Code 43 Section 523–524), is most effective at minimizing shortages to demands under a hotter and drier climate, demonstrating how optimal water management strategies can vary significantly depending upon climate scenario.     

Incorporating Future Climatic and Socioeconomic Variables in Water Demand Forecasting: A Case Study in Bangkok

With concerns relating to climate change, and its impacts on water supply, there is an increasing emphasis on water utilities to prepare for the anticipated changes so as to ensure sustainability in supply. Forecasting the water demand, which is done through a variety of techniques using diverse explanatory variables, is the primary requirement for any planning and management measure. However, hitherto, the use of future climatic variables in forecasting the water demand has largely been unexplored. To plug this knowledge gap, this study endeavored to forecast the water demand for the Metropolitan Waterworks Authority (MWA) in Thailand using future climatic and socioeconomic data. Accordingly, downscaled climate data from HadCM3 and extrapolated data of socioeconomic variables was used in the model development, using Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The water demand was forecasted at two scales: annual and monthly, up to the year 2030, with good prediction accuracy (AAREs: 4.76 and 4.82 % respectively). Sensitivity analysis of the explanatory variables revealed that climatic variables have very little effect on the annual water demand. However, the monthly demand is significantly affected by climatic variables, and subsequently climate change, confirming the notion that climate change is a major constraint in ensuring water security for the future. Because the monthly water demand is used in designing storage components of the supply system, and planning inter-basin transfers if required, the results of this study provide the MWA with a useful reference for designing the water supply plan for the years ahead.     

Optimal water allocation at different levels of climate change to minimize water shortage in arid regions (Case Study: Zayandeh-Rud River Basin,Iran)

Climate change is one of the most important factors influencing the future of the world's environment. The most important impacts of climate change are changes in water supply and demand in different regions of the world. In this study, different climate change patterns in two RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios (RCP: Representative Concentration Pathway), were adopted for the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin, Iran, through weighting of GCMs (General Circulation Models). These climate change patterns are including ideal, medium, and critical patterns. Using the LARS-WG model (Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator), the outputs of the GCMs were downscaled statistically and the daily temperature and precipitation time series were generated from 2020 to 2044. Then, based on this information, the inflow volume into the Zayandeh-Rud Reservoir was predicted by the IHACRES model (Identification of unit Hydrograph and Component flows from Rainfall, Evaporation and Streamflow) and the agricultural water demand was also estimated based on future evapotranspiration. Finally, using GAMS (General Algebraic Modeling System) software, water resources in this basin were allocated based on the basic management scenario (B) and the water demand management scenario (D). The results showed that the average monthly temperature will increase by 0.6 to 1.3 °C under different climate change patterns. On the other hand, on the annual basis, precipitation will decrease by 6.5 to 31% and inflow volume to the Zayandeh-Rud Reservoir will decrease by 21 to 38%. The results also showed that the water shortages based on the baseline management scenario (B) will be between 334 and 805 MCM (Million Cubic Meters). These range of values varies between 252 and 787 MCM in the water demand management scenario (D). In general, the water shortage can be reduced in the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin with water demand control, but complete resolution of this problem in this region requires more integrated strategies based on a sustainable development, such as a fundamental change in the cropping pattern, prevention of population growth and industrial development.     

Future Water Supply and Demand in the Okanagan Basin,British Columbia: A Scenario-Based Analysis of Multiple,Interacting Stressors

Surface water is critical for meeting water needs in British Columbia’s Okanagan Basin, but the timing and magnitude of its availability is being altered through climate and land use changes and growing water demand. Greater attention needs to be given to the multiple, interacting factors occurring and projected to occur in this region if water is going to be sustainably provisioned to human users and available for ecosystem needs. This study contributes to that goal by integrating information on physical, biological and social processes in order to project a range of possible changes to surface water availability resulting from land-use, climatic and demographic change, as well as from Mountain Pine Beetle infestation. An integrated water management model (Water Evaluation and Planning system, WEAP) was used to consider future scenarios for water supply and demand in both unregulated and reservoir-supported streams that supply the District of Peachland. Results demonstrate that anticipated future climate conditions will critically reduce streamflow relative to projected uses (societal demand and ecological flow requirements). The surficial storage systems currently in place were found unable to meet municipal and instream flow needs during “normal” precipitation years by the 2050s. Improvements may be found through demand reduction, especially in the near term. Beyond the implications for the District of Peachland, this work demonstrates a method of using an accessible modeling tool for integrating knowledge from the fields of climate science, forest hydrology, water systems management and stream ecology to aid in water and land management decision-making.     

Economic approaches to water management in Australia

This paper focuses on the use of three economic approaches to water management in Australia that can increase the efficiency of water use and water security, thus providing a fillip to sustainability and economic growth: the establishment of water markets and water pricing; government spending; and the adoption of legislation and economic regulations promoting the development of water markets. Australia is well down the reform path, but needs to complete implementation. Australia's challenge is relevant to many countries struggling with demand and supply water imbalances, and the consequential declining environmental outcomes in rural areas and persistent water shortages in urban areas.     

碳中和愿景下城市供水面临的挑战、安全保障对策与技术研究进展

随着我国人口逐渐增多、经济迅猛发展、生活水平不断提高、城市化进程逐渐加速,城市面积扩大并发展成城市群,对水资源的需求持续增加.与此同时,工业、农业生产、人类活动等途径进入环境中的各类污染物总量也在增加、成分更加复杂,这些污染物最终进入城市水体.为满足水质要求,城市供水系统能源消耗逐渐增加,产生较多的碳足迹.一些城市群为...     

Quantifying the Urban Water Supply Impacts of Climate Change

The difference in timing between water supply and urban water demand necessitates water storage. Existing reservoirs were designed based upon hydrologic data from a given historical period, and, given recent evidence for climatic change, may be insufficient to meet demand under future climate change scenarios. The focus of this study is to present a generally applicable methodology to assess the ability of existing storage to meet urban water demand under present and projected future climatic scenarios, and to determine the effectiveness of storage capacity expansions. Uncertainties in climatic forcing and projected demand scenarios are considered explicitly by the models. The reservoir system in San Diego, California is used as a case study. We find that the climate change scenarios will be more costly to the city than scenarios using historical hydrologic parameters. The magnitude of the expected costs and the optimal investment policy are sensitive to projected population growth and the accuracy to which our model can predict spills.     

Challenges to Manage the Risk of Water Scarcity and Climate Change in the Mediterranean

The Mediterranean region is undergoing rapid local and global social and environmental changes. All indicators point to an increase in environmental and water scarcity problems with negative implications towards current and future sustainability. Water management in Mediterranean countries is challenged these pressures and needs to evolve to reach the target of increasing population with reliable access to freshwater established by the Millennium Development Goals. This paper first reviews and evaluates current and future social and environmental pressures on water resources, including climate change. The results show that pressures are not homogeneous across the region and sectors of water use. Second the paper evaluates the adaptation strategies to cope with water scarcity, including technology, use of strategic groundwater, and management. Finally, the paper proposes a framework for managing the risk of water scarcity based on preparedness rather than a crisis approach. The importance of local management at the basin level is emphasized, but the potential benefits depend on the appropriate multi-institutional and multi-stakeholder coordination.     

A Global Outlook for Water Resources to the Year 2025

With growing concerns for sustainable development world over, planners of natural resources are focussing their attention on vulnerability arising from availability and use of water resources. Past studies of water resource vulnerability have either been too aggregate, or have focussed on one single dimension of these issues. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of global (using national scope) water resource-based vulnerability (WRV) using a joint criteria of water availability and its relative use. Vulnerability status for each country was assessed for the present (1990) situation, as well as for the year 2025. Four factors were taken into account to determine the nature of the WRV for a country: population growth, food self-sufficiency, industrial development, and climate change. World population growth, which is projected to increase to 8.45 billion people by the year 2025, by itself would trigger 40% of the population residing in countries facing some degree of WRV. Combined with food self-sufficiency, industrial growth, and climate change, by the year 2025, some 5.1 billion (60% of the total world population) would live in regions potentially experiencing moderate to extreme WRV. The study suggests that the regions that are at great risk are those already facing some degree of WRV; the climate change would most likely accentuate the already worsening situation in many regions, while improve it in regions that are not projected to be vulnerable.     

Conflicting Attitudes Toward Inter-basin Water Transfers in Bulgaria

Abstract

Sofia, Bulgaria has suffered from chronic water shortages in recent decades. Since the 1970s, government officials have advocated the construction of a massive complex of dams, tunnels, and diversion structures to transfer water from the Rila Mountains to meet the city's needs. These inter-basin water transfers have been highly controversial, sparking protests by citizens in water export areas, water scientists, and environmentalists. Using a qualitative approach employing focus groups and interviews, this study describes and analyzes the attitudes of ordinary citizens, water scientists, environmental NGO leaders, and government officials toward inter-basin water transfers between the Rila Mountains and Sofia. Apart from government officials, there is little enthusiasm for inter-basin water transfers. Citizens living in water export areas are generally opposed to any water management actions that do not address their needs for a regulated water supply, while those living in Sofia see water transfers as being unnecessary and prohibitively expensive. A high degree of polarization exists between government officials, who view water transfers as being an important tool in water management, and water scientists and environmentalists, who view inter-basin transfers as being unnecessary, prohibitively expensive, and detrimental to local populations and the environment. All participants in the study agree that Sofia's present water supply network is highly inefficient and needs to be modernized. In spite of the shortages, water conservation methods have not widely implemented.     

Governance and management of local water storage in the Hindu Kush Himalayas

The people of the Hindu Kush Himalayan region face severe seasonal water shortages due to the high variability in rainfall, and the problem is likely to be exacerbated under climate change. Small-scale local water storage options offer a means of collecting monsoon precipitation to provide for agricultural and household needs over the entire year, and they help build community resilience. Proper watershed management, with due consideration of upstream–downstream linkages, and appropriate institutional arrangements are vital for this adaptation measure to work. Active participation of local users in decisions related to water allocation and community services is essential. Planned interventions should preserve the institutional arrangements of reciprocity and cooperation among community members.     

中山市水资源系统动态模拟与敏感性分析EI北大核心CSCD

为满足区域水资源可持续开发与高效利用条件下中山市未来的社会经济发展需求,构建了系统动力学模型,模拟中山市经济社会、水资源供需及水环境的变化趋势,采用了熵权TOPSIS模型进行参数敏感性分析,综合评价不同参数变化对2030年和2040年水质、水量以及经济社会的影响。结果表明:常规发展模式下,中山市水资源供需矛盾逐渐凸显,水环境恶化愈发严重;控制用水量的方案对促进区域可持续发展的作用较为明显,且万元工业(不含火电)增加值用水量的减少产生效果最为显著;不同参数调整方案对水资源系统近期及远期的影响不尽相同,为使水资源管理政策更加适合长远的发展,应重视远期作用明显的参数调整方案。     

Short-Term Water Demand Forecast Modelling at IIT Kanpur Using Artificial Neural Networks

The efficient operation and management of an existing water supply system require short-term water demand forecasts as inputs. Conventionally, regression and time series analysis have been employed in modelling short-term water demand forecasts. The relatively new technique of artificial neural networks has been proposed as an efficient tool for modelling and forecasting in recent years. The primary objective of this study is to investigate the relatively new technique of artificial neural networks for use in forecasting short-term water demand at the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur. Other techniques investigated in this study include regression and time series analysis for comparison purposes. The secondary objective of this study is to investigate the validity of the following two hypotheses: 1) the short-term water demand process at the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur campus is a dynamic process mainly driven by the maximum air temperature and interrupted by rainfall occurrences, and 2) occurrence of rainfall is a more significant variable than the rainfall amount itself in modelling the short-term water demand forecasts. The data employed in this study consist of weekly water demand at the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur campus, and total weekly rainfall and weekly average maximum air temperature from the City of Kanpur, India. Six different artificial neural network models, five regression models, and two time series models have been developed and compared. The artificial neural network models consistently outperformed the regression and time series models developed in this study. An average absolute error in forecasting of 2.41% was achieved from the best artificial neural network model, which also showed the best correlation between the modelled and targeted water demands. It has been found that the water demand at the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur campus is better correlated with the rainfall occurrence rather than the amount of rainfall itself.     

Determinants of Small-Area Water Consumption for the City of Phoenix,Arizona

Rapid population growth in the face of an uncertain climate future challenges the desert city of Phoenix, Arizona to consume water more prudently. To better understand the demand side of this important issue, we identified the determinants of water consumption for detached single-family residential units using ordinary least squares regression (OLS). We compared the results from the OLS model to those of a geographically weighted regression (GWR) model to determine whether there are spatial effects above and beyond the effects of the OLS variables. Determinants of residential water demand reflect both indoor and outdoor use and include household size, the presence of swimming pools, lot size, and the prevalence of landscaping that requires a moist environment. Results confirm the statistical significance of household size, the presence of a pool, landscaping practices, and lot size. Improvement of the GWR over the OLS model suggests that there are spatial effects above and beyond the effects for household size and pools – two of the four determinants of water demand. This means that census tracts exhibit water consumption behavior similar to neighboring tracts for these two variables. Model parameters can be used to investigate the effects of policies designed to regulate lot size, pool construction, and landscaping practices on water consumption and to forecast water demand in areas of new construction.     

Climate change,water management and stakeholder analysis in the Dongjiang River basin in South China

This article proposes a systematic analysis of water management and allocation on the scale of a river basin, considering climate impacts and stakeholder networks in the Dongjiang River basin in South China. Specific approaches are integrated to explore various subtopics. Findings indicate a slight increase of precipitation in the basin and strong fluctuations in this century due to climate extremes, which may lead to seasonal or quality-related water shortages. It is highlighted that alternative options for holistic water management are needed in the basin, and participatory water allocation mechanisms and establishment of a basin-wide management framework could be helpful.     

Sustainable Water Supply and Demand Management in Semi-arid Regions: Optimizing Water Resources Allocation Based on RCPs Scenarios

Climate as one of the key factors in water resources management affects the amount of water in the hydrological cycle, which subsequently impacts the level of water availability. Considering the challenges that the South Alborz Region, Iran is currently facing in supplying water for various consumers; in this study, the climate change adaptation scenarios are investigated for sustainable water supply and demand. This study uses a procedure in which five different adaptation approaches, under RCPs scenarios, were established using the WEAP model to assess the impacts of various adaptation strategies on increasing the balance between water supply and demand over current and 2020s accounts. The findings suggest an imbalance between supply and demand in the current situation with the greatest imbalance in domestic use while the minimum in the industrial sector. The results of assessing adaptive scenarios show that various scenarios have different effects on balancing the water supply and demand by different consumers; on the other hand, the scenarios that directly affect domestic water demand have the greatest effect on minimizing the gap between supply and demand in the region; therefore, the options for decreasing the population demand along with diminishing the losses in the domestic water distribution network are the most effective alternatives for balancing supply and demand under all of the climate scenarios. The findings of this research indicate that adaptive management with the focus on restricting demand helps actively management of water resources in the regions with scarce water resources.