社会网络环境下基于公众行为大数据属性挖掘的大群体应急决策方法及应用

针对社会网络环境下复杂大群体应急决策中决策属性信息难以获得问题,提出社会网络环境下公众行为大数据驱动的大群体应急决策方法.首先,通过挖掘社交平台上的公众行为大数据,利用TF-IDF、Word2vec技术进行关键词提取、聚类及其影响力分析,从大量行为数据中挖掘大群体决策属性信息以辅助专家决策,使决策结果具有更高的科学性和有效性;其次,构建决策者间基于信任关系和观点相似度的社会网络,采用同时考虑信任和相似度的聚类方法对决策者进行聚类,并基于社会网络分析获得决策者权重;然后,提出基于决策者间信任关系的共识调整方法进行共识调整以获得最终群体决策矩阵和方案排序,通过引入决策者客观自信度避免个别决策者过分自信行为的影响;最后,通过一个新冠疫情案例分析说明方法的可行性和有效性.     

基于信任关系的TODIM群体多属性决策方法

针对现有多属性群体决策方法较少考虑社会网络和决策者有限理性因素的影响,考虑到社会网络中的信任关系,提出了基于信任关系的TODIM（TOmada de decis?o interativa multicritério）群体多属性决策方法。根据决策专家之间的信任关系,计算出信任网络中的领导者、信任关系矩阵以及评价矩阵等。专家根据自身的自信程度来参考领导者的评价矩阵,调整备选方案的优势度。运用TODIM方法计算各方案最终的排序结果,并与未考虑信任关系时得出的排序结果进行比较,并对自信程度进行灵敏度分析。算例结果说明了该方法的可行性和有效性。结合信任网络和TODIM决策方法的性质和研究现状,对未来的研究发展方向进行了展望。     

社会网络环境下基于分布式信任的在线评价方法

在线评价是社会网络环境下的一种新型多属性群决策问题.首先,为处理在线评价过程的不确定性,定义了分布式信任的运算法则、集成算子和排序方法等;其次,提出一种分布式信任社会网络分析方法,用来分析专家间的信任关系,并计算出每位专家的信任权重;再次,基于在线评价信息,结合最大和最小平均加权距离来综合确定未知的属性权重,并利用相对贴近度对备选方案进行排序,进而提出一种基于分布式信任的扩展TOPSIS法;最后,通过实例分析表明所提出方法的可行性.     

基于重要度引导偏好识别修正的多粒度语言共识模型

研究多粒度语言偏好信息下的群体共识决策问题. 首先, 从个体和群体两个角度充分挖掘偏好信息下隐含的专家重要度信息, 基于个体一致度及个体与群体的相似度构建确定专家重要度的优化模型; 其次, 以专家重要度引导非共识偏好的识别和修正过程, 提出一种自适应的语言共识模型; 然后, 给出一种群决策方法, 确保在集结专家意见前群体达成一定程度的共识; 最后, 通过算例验证所提出方法的可行性和有效性.

     

基于新型距离测度的概率语言多属性群决策方法

研究属性权重和专家权重均未知条件下的概率语言多属性群决策问题.首先,针对传统概率语言术语集距离测度的不足,提出改进的距离测度,并证明其性质和优越性.其次,基于新的距离公式,定义决策者的平均相似度,并结合专家之间的信任度矩阵计算每个属性下决策者的综合权重;构建基于相似-信任分析的群体共识调节模型,尽可能保留各属性下权威专家的意见;考虑到属性之间的相关性以及各个属性的重要程度,构建基于广义Choquet积分和离差最大化法的主客观综合赋权模型.随后,在新的距离测度的基础上,结合TODIM方法构建概率语言多属性群决策框架,实现对多个备选方案的排序.最后,以光伏电站的选址为例,验证所提出方法的有效性和合理性.     

具有多粒度不确定语言评价信息的多属性群决策方法

针对具有多粒度不确定语言评价信息的多属性群决策问题,提出了一种决策分析方法.首先给出了不确定语言短语两两比较的优势度描述及其性质分析;然后根据优势度、属性权重向量及专家权重向量,通过运用简单加权法,建立两两方案比较的群体综合优势度矩阵,基于群体综合优势度矩阵,给出了一种基于优于次数的方案排序方法;最后,通过一个算例说明了该方法的可行性和有效性.     

考虑个体累积共识贡献的犹豫模糊语言自适应共识模型

针对犹豫模糊语言信息下的多属性群决策问题,提出一种基于个体累积共识贡献的自适应共识决策模型.首先,利用犹豫模糊语言得分函数,基于经典的信息熵和相对熵理论,综合考虑同一属性下不同方案间的信息差异,以及各方案分别与正理想方案和负理想方案的信息差异,构建确定属性权重的优化模型;然后,提出个体累积共识贡献测度和全局共识测度,利用全局共识度进行共识控制,依据个体累积共识贡献度对专家权重进行自适应修正,构建一种新的犹豫模糊语言自适应共识过程.该过程的特点是对拥有较少合作的非全共识专家执行专家权重惩罚,而且专家权重的更新引起属性权重的自适应更新,反过来又影响个体共识贡献的累积.最后通过一个应急医疗设施选址的共识决策例子表明方法的可行性和有效性.     

犹豫模糊语言群决策的共识性模型

针对犹豫模糊语言群决策问题,研究其共识性调整方法.首先,定义犹豫模糊语言术语集的距离测度;然后,基于该距离测度定义犹豫模糊决策矩阵间的共识性水平及其相关概念,建立共识性调整模型,该模型采用反馈机制,并且尽可能提供给专家较多的信息,以方便专家进行信息修正,达到群体共识;最后,通过具体实例说明了所提出的共识性方法的可行性和实用性.     

社交网络群决策环境下基于量子干涉的信任测度

针对已有的信任测度模型中信任源出现的冗余以及之间的干扰未被考虑的缺点,提出一种基于干扰效应的社会网络信任测度的决策模型.该模型在计算决策者之间的信任值时,通过简化信任源类型可避免部分信任源的重复出现,同时增加了信任源之间的干扰项.首先,根据社会关系与背景对信任的决定性,将决策者之间信任关系的来源划分为“决策者之间的亲近关系”和“决策者的客观背景”;其次,提出“亲疏度”和“专业度”的概念作为这两个信任源的测度,在保证信任源完整的前提下,克服信任关系冗余的缺陷;然后,进一步设计考虑干扰效应的信任值量化方法,所求的信任值能够综合体现两个信任源的个体决定程度和整体影响程度;最后,将决策者的信任值转化为权重聚集决策者偏好,以解决实际群决策问题.数值和理论结果表明,所提出考虑干扰效应的信任测度方法能够作为提高信任关系的准确性以及解决社交网络群决策问题的工具,具有广泛的应用前景.     

基于直觉模糊集和证据理论的群决策方法

针对属性值和权重均为直觉模糊数的多属性决策问题,提出一种基于直觉模糊集和证据理论的群决策方法.首先,对专家给出的每个方案的属性值和属性权重进行证据合成,在此基础上合成每个方案的所有属性值;然后,基于直觉模糊集相似度确定专家的相对权重,修正方案证据,并合成所有专家证据,得到方案的信任区间,根据信任区间的大小对方案进行排序;最后,通过数值案例验证了所提出方法的有效性和合理性.     

A maximum self-esteem degree based feedback mechanism for group consensus reaching with the distributed linguistic trust propagation in social network

This paper focuses on consensus reaching process (CRP) under social network in which the trust relationship expressed by linguistic information. A new feedback mechanism in social network group decision making (SN-GDM) is proposed, which mainly consists of the following two aspects: (1) The propagation of distributed linguistic trust is investigated to study trust relation among experts; (2) A maximum self-esteem degree based feedback mechanism is developed to produce personalized advice for reaching higher group consensus. To do so, a novel linguistic trust propagation method is proposed to obtain the complete trust relationship among group. The self-esteem degree is used to define the extent that an individual makes concessions. Then, a maximum self-esteem degree based optimal feedback mechanism is built to produce personalized advice to help inconsistent experts make change of their opinion. Its novelty lies in the establishment of an optimization model with the nonlinear group self-esteem degree function as the objective function while group consensus threshold as the restrictions. Therefore, the inconsistent experts will reach a group consensus with the minimum loss of self-esteem degree, and then, it achieves the optimal balance between individual self-esteem and group consensus. Finally, a ranking process is applied to derive the appropriate consensus solution.     

On consensus reaching process based on social network analysis in uncertain linguistic group decision making: Exploring limited trust propagation and preference modification attitudes

This paper explores a limited trust propagation-based consensus model considering individual attitude for preference modification in a social networked setting with uncertain preference information. To examine the construction of complete linkages, and the status of decision makers in group decision making, it is assumed that the group size and network density will affect the scale of mediators in the propagation process, then a definition of limited trust propagation is proposed and the propagation efficiency can be introduced. On this basis, we obtain missing trust relationships and individual centrality in network. In the process of consensus reaching, both the decision maker’s original preference and recommendation advice are considered for flexibly modeling the preference modification process: the individual attitude toward modification is determined by a newly introduced measure of comprehensive relative out-degree centrality, showing the degree of willingness to adjust assessments. When the willingness is too low to reach the preset consensus level, a multi-objective programming model is designed to improve the consensus as much as possible. Moreover, the proposed feedback mechanism narrows the individual acceptable modification range based on the previous adjustment rule, so as to simulate the personalized and targeted decision behavior. To guarantee obtaining a collective aggregated preference in a logical and precise manner, a two-stage optimization model composing of comprehensive relative in-degree centrality-based information aggregation and best consistency-based uncertainty elimination, is proposed. A numerical example and comparative analyses are performed to show the validity and feasibility of the proposed model.     

考虑社会网络邻接关系的群体判断矩阵决策方法

随着社会化媒体的快速发展,社会化因素已经成为影响群体决策过程及其结果的重要因素.针对群体决策者的判断信息以残缺判断矩阵形式给出,且考虑群体决策者社会网络邻接关系的群体决策问题,提出可行的解决方法.首先,提出一种基于决策者相似性程度和社会网络距离的残缺判断矩阵补全方法;然后,提出考虑决策者社会网络影响力的群体共识交互决策模型,该交互模型不仅考虑群体决策者之间的社会邻接关系,而且可以在较大程度上保存决策者给定的原始判断信息;最后,通过一个物流企业选择存储仓库的算例验证所提出算法的可行性和优势.     

An attitude-driven web consensus support system for heterogeneous group decision making

Consensus reaching processes are applied in group decision making problems to reach a mutual agreement among a group of decision makers before making a common decision. Different consensus models have been developed to facilitate consensus reaching processes. However, new trends bring diverse challenges in group decision making, such as the modelling of different types of information and of large groups of decision makers, together with their attitude to achieve agreements. These challenges require the capacity to deal with heterogenous frameworks, and the automation of consensus reaching processes by means of consensus support systems. In this paper, we propose a consensus model in which decision makers can express their opinions by using different types of information, capable of dealing with large groups of decision makers. The model incorporates the management of the group’s attitude towards consensus by means of an extension of OWA aggregation operators aimed to optimize the overall consensus process. Eventually, a novel Web-based consensus support system that automates the proposed consensus model is presented.     

A dynamic hybrid trust network-based dual-path feedback consensus model for multi-attribute group decision-making in intuitionistic fuzzy environment

This paper proposes a dual-path feedback consensus model based on dynamic hybrid trust relationships to solve multi-attribute group decision-making problems in intuitionistic fuzzy environment. This model comprises two main parts: (a) the construction of a dynamic hybrid trust network among decision makers (DMs) and (b) the formation of a dual-path feedback mechanism to improve the group consensus. In the first part, a hybrid trust network is constructed by combining DMs’ prior knowledge of each other and the preference similarities between them. Then, the hybrid trust network is dynamically updated iteratively to reflect the changes in the trust relationships in the process of joint decision-making. In the second part, DMs with low consensus degrees are identified and provided with either a preference or weight adjustment path to improve the group consensus. The preference adjustment path is activated for DMs who agree to modify their preferences, and a nonlinear programming model is proposed to help DMs improve consensus degrees while minimizing adjustment cost. The weight adjustment path is activated for DMs who stick to their own opinions and refuse to make changes, and their weights is adjusted accordingly. An illustrative example along with the related sensitivity analysis and comparative study are used to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model.     

Consensus reaching process for group decision-making based on trust network and ordinal consensus measure

Due to the urgent nature of emergency decision making, it is necessary to reach the consensus requirement quickly. Ordinal consensus measure explores the relation between the rankings and helps to intuitively know which alternative needs to be adjusted to accelerate the improvement of consensus. Moreover, decision makers (DMs) in the decision making problem are often connected through trust relationships which affect the DMs’ judgments in the process of DMs’ interaction. Therefore, this paper explores trust network-based group decision-making in which the consensus level is estimated by an ordinal consensus measure. We first focus on the supplementation of an incomplete trust network. One of the most common methods is to design the trust propagation operator, whereas the intensity of information propagation may be different in various scenarios. Therefore, considering the different numerical scale of the linguistic term set, a trust propagation operator with different intensity of trust propagation is designed to obtain the indirect trust relationship. In the process of supplementing the incomplete trust network, the contribution of DMs to propagating information is concerned, which can be described by the betweenness centrality, and the importance weights of DMs are determined by combining the betweenness centrality and trust in-degree. In the consensus reaching process, we first propose an improved ordinal consensus measure, which takes into account the consistency of orders of the same alternative in different rankings as well as the importance of positions of alternatives. Then, we design the identification rule and the feedback mechanism for those with low consensus levels. The identification rule is used to select the DMs which first few alternatives in the ranking are different with those in the ranking of group. And in the feedback mechanism, the referenced preference relation (FPR) obtained by the trust network is provided for the identified DMs. Afterwards, combining the referenced FPR, an optimization model is designed to give the adjustment opinion. Finally, a numerical example elaborates on the feasibility of the trust propagation operator and consensus model. The comparative analysis demonstrates the rationality and effectiveness of the proposed model.     

Trust based consensus model for social network in an incomplete linguistic information context

A theoretical framework to consensus building within a networked social group is put forward. This article investigates a trust based estimation and aggregation methods as part of a visual consensus model for multiple criteria group decision making with incomplete linguistic information. A novel trust propagation method is proposed to derive trust relationship from an incomplete connected trust network and the trust score induced order weighted averaging operator is presented to aggregate the orthopairs of trust/distrust values obtained from different trust paths. Then, the concept of relative trust score is defined, whose use is twofold: (1) to estimate the unknown preference values and (2) as a reliable source to determine experts’ weights. A visual feedback process is developed to provide experts with graphical representations of their consensus status within the group as well as to identify the alternatives and preference values that should be reconsidered for changing in the subsequent consensus round. The feedback process also includes a recommendation mechanism to provide advice to those experts that are identified as contributing less to consensus on how to change their identified preference values. It is proved that the implementation of the visual feedback mechanism guarantees the convergence of the consensus reaching process.     

Multi-attribute group decision making with opinion dynamics based on social trust network

Social trust network (STN) has facilitated information exchange between experts during interactions. Some feedback mechanisms have been used to provide advices for opinion change to improve their consensus levels. However, they do not consider the experts’ willingness and their self-confidence values. To analyze the influence of the relationship between experts on the decision-making results, this paper proposes a multi-attribute group decision making (MAGDM) with opinion dynamics based on STN. Three stages are included in the proposed approach: trust propagation, consensus reaching process and alternative selection. In the trust propagation stage, the social weight influence matrix and the weights of experts are obtained based on the complete social trust matrix which is constructed by trust aggregation and the given self-confidence values of experts. In the consensus reaching process, the consensus measure is used to determine the consensus between the experts or not, and the feedback mechanism based on opinion dynamics is used to adjust the opinions which do not reach consensus. The appropriate alternative is selected based on the assessable value of the alternative in the selection process. Finally, a numerical experiment about supplier selection is introduced to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed approach and comparison analyses show that the proposed approach can improve efficiency compared with the MAGDM in the social network.     

Consensus reaching for group decision making with multi-granular unbalanced linguistic information: A bounded confidence and minimum adjustment-based approach

In group decision making problems, there exist the situations that decision makers may use unbalanced linguistic term sets that are not uniformly and symmetrically distributed to provide their linguistic assessments over alternatives. Moreover, due to the difference in knowledge and culture backgrounds, it is also possible that multi-granular linguistic term sets may also be used by decision makers. How to manage multi-granular unbalanced linguistic information in consensus-based group decision making has becoming an important topic in linguistic decision making. In this paper, we first revise Herrera’s unbalanced linguistic term sets and propose a simplified linguistic computational model to fuse multi-granular unbalanced linguistic terms. Afterwards, for multi-criteria group decision making problems with multi-granular unbalanced linguistic information, we develop two optimization models to generate adjustment advice for decision makers who have to change his/her opinions in consensus reaching process, which consider both the bounded confidence levels and minimum adjustment of decision makers’ linguistic assessments. Moreover, an algorithm is further proposed to help decision makers reach consensus in group decision making. Eventually, an application example for ERP system supplier selection and some simulation results are presented to illustrate and justify the consensus reaching algorithm.