基于稀有事件仿真的商业银行IT操作风险评估研究

系统仿真是风险评价的一种重要手段,针对商业银行IT操作风险预警问题,提出了一种基于稀有事件仿真的IT操作风险评估方法。采用商业银行IT操作风险的概率作为衡量IT操作风险高低的标准,构造基于稀有事件的商业银行IT操作风险识别模型,利用交叉熵方法构建了一种稀有事件仿真的有效算法,并由此估计出发生损失的概率。实证分析结果表明,模型对商业银行IT操作风险具有很强的识别能力,从而提供了一个风险预警的新视角。     

信息化风险监管机制下的IT系统研究

IT系统的建设和发展具有投资力度大、业务范围广、安全标准高等特征,其系统的搭建具备很多不确定因子,并存在较高的风险。IT部门管理者应利用信息化风险监管理念完善部门和项目建设。基于此,首先给出IT系统的信息化风险监管机制,进而分析了信息化风险监管机制下的IT系统建设和IT系统的项目信息化风险监管计划,最后给出IT系统的项目信息化风险识别进程和风险控制方法。     

IT项目风险预警管理模型研究

本文从IT项目开发生命周期的角度出发,结合IT项目风险的动态特征提出了IT项目风险预警管理模型,并对其进行详细的分析.同时在此基础上建立了包含其各个子模块的详细的IT项目风险预警控制周期模型.     

IT危机预警管理系统初探

随着互联网应用的深入,计算机系统安全受到的威胁日益增加,IT危机预警变得日益重要。从IT危机内涵出发,指出建立IT危机预警管理系统的必要性,之后给出IT危机预警管理系统的流程。重点讨论了预警分析的内容及危机预控对策。力求建立可操作性的IT危机预警管理系统,为计算机系统的防护措施提供理论上和对策上的指导。     

智慧型IT综合监控运维管理平台中的关联分析与风险分析

随着IT信息化的高速发展,对基础IT环境的管理、维护难度也在不断地增加,为了保障基础IT支撑环境的稳定和可靠运行,各种运维管理技术不断涌现,以帮助运维人员提高IT支撑环境的监控与运维能力.探讨了智慧型IT运维管理中的关联分析及风险分析,通过实现对安全事件的深度分析,能快速做出智能响应,实现对安全风险的统一监控分析和预警处理,也为IT基础支撑环境的监控运维提供了更广阔的思路.     

IT获得和实施过程控制

IT治理的提出,为企业在实现业务目标的同时平衡IT投资和风险方面提供一种机制。为了确保企业能够实现业务目标,实现在风险管理和收益实现间的有效平衡,指导和管理各类IT活动就显得非常迫切。国际信息系统审计与控制协会提出了“信息系统和技术控制目标”(COBIT)。作为IT治理的核心模型,COBIT包含34个信息技术过程控制,并归集为四个控制域:IT规划和组强(Planning and Organization)、系统获得和实施(Acquisition and Implementation)、交付与支持(Delivery and Support)以及信息系统运行性能监控(Monitoring)。在本次系列讲座中,我们将对每一个控制域(Control domains)内的过程控制有选择的展开论述。     

IT交付和支持的控制

IT治理的提出,为企业在实现业务目标的同时,平衡IT投资和风险方面提供一种机制。为了确保企业能够实现业务目标,实现在风险管理和收益实现间的有效平衡,指导和管理各类IT活动就显得非常迫切。国际信息系统审计与控制协会提出了“信息系统和技术控制目标”(COBIT)。作为IT治理的核心模型,COBIT包含34个信息技术过程控制,并归集为四个控制域:IT规划和组织(Planning and Organization)、系统获得和实施(Acquisitlon andlmplementation)、交付与支持(Delivery and Support)以及信息系统运行性能监控(Monitoring)。在本次系列讲座中,我们将对每一个控制域(Control domains)内的过程控制有选择的展开论述。     

IT规划和组织的控制

IT治理的提出,为企业在实现业务目标的同时平衡IT投资和风险方面提供一种机制。为了确保企业能够实现业务目标,实现在风险管理和收益实现间的有效平衡,指导和管理各类IT活动就显得非常迫切。国际信息系统审计与控制协会提出了一信息系统和技术检测控制目标”(COBIT),作为IT治理的核心模型、COBIT包含34个信息技术过程控制,并归集为四个控制域:IT规划和组织(Planning and Organization)、系统获得和实施(Acquisition and Implementation),交付与支持(Delivery and Support)以及信息系统运行性能监控(Monitoring)。在本次系列讲座中,我们将对每一个控制域(Control domains)内的过程控制有选择的展开论述。     

信息系统运行性能监控

IT治理的提出，为企业在实现业务目标的同时，平衡IT投资和风险方面提供一种机制。为了确保企业能够实现业务目标，实现在风险管理和收益实现间的有效平衡，指导和管理各类IT活动就显得非常迫切。国际信息系统审计与控制协会提出了“信息系统和技术控制目标”(COBIT)。作为IT治理的核心模型，COBIT包含54个信息技术过程控制，并归集为四个控制域：IT规划和组织(Planning and Organization)、系统获得和实施(Acquisition and Implementation)、交付与支持(Delivery and Support)以及信息系统运行性能监控(Monitoring)。在本次系列讲座中，我们将对每一个控制域(Control domains)内的过程控制有选择的展开论述。     

基于IT治理的企业IT风险管理与控制

本文从当今国际最新的IT治理理念出发,提出应当从以下三个方面入手控制企业IT风险:保持企业战略与IT战略一致,从根本上消除企业IT投资的根本风险;帮助企业确立全面的IT资源管理架构,有效控制和管理企业IT风险;建立精确的测量指标体系,以有效地实施企业IT风险控制。     

Empirical analysis of risk-taking behavior in IT platform migration decisions

Information technology (IT) platform migration incurs a great deal of risk because of the massive rewriting of legacy systems and a wide range of new technology adoptions. Therefore IT platform decisions need to be made in a mindful manner because of the high degree of investment risk. However, more aggressive migrations, compared to the global trend, to an open system have been observed in Korean organizations. This phenomenon defies the common understanding of IT investment risk and encourages the investigation of the elusive characteristics underlying IT investment decisions. The effect of IT decision-makers’ perceptions and risk propensity on their IT platform migration decisions is examined in the context of risky decisions. In addition to risk perception, decision-makers’ risk propensity also has a significant effect on IT investment decisions. By observing the monarchical IT governance and IT-biased careers of decision-makers, some implications of large-scale IT investment decisions are derived.     

Early Warning Signs of it Project Failure: The Dominant Dozen

The postmortem examination of failed IT projects reveals that long before the failure there were significant symptoms or “early warning signs.” This article describes the top 12 people-related and project-related IT project risks, based on “early warning sign” data collected from a panel of 19 experts and a survey of 55 IT project managers.     

Comparing senior executive and project manager perceptions of IT project risk: a Chinese Delphi study

The success rate for information technology (IT) projects continues to be low. With an increasing number of IT projects in developing countries such as China, it is important to understand the risks they are experiencing on IT projects. To date, there has been little research documenting Asian perceptions of IT project risk. In this research, we examine the risks identified by Chinese senior executives (SEs) and project managers (PMs), and compare these two groups. The importance of top management support in IT projects is well documented. Prior research has shown that from the perspective of IT PMs, lack of support from SEs is the number one risk in IT projects. Surprisingly, senior executives' perceptions towards IT project risk have never been systematically examined. One reason why lack of support from senior executives continues to represent a major risk may be that senior executives themselves do not realize the critical role that they can play in helping to deliver successful projects. In this study, we use the Delphi method to compare the risk perceptions of senior executives and project managers. By comparing risk factors selected by each group, zones of concordance and discordance are identified. In terms of perceived importance ascribed to risk factors, PMs tend to focus on lower‐level risks with particular emphasis on risks associated with requirements and user involvement, whereas SEs tend to focus on higher‐level risks such as those risks involving politics, organization structure, process, and culture. Finally, approaches for dealing with risk factors that are seen as important by both SEs and PMs are provided.     

面向不同利益相关者的IT投资决策模型

为了响应不同利益相关者在IT投资决策过程中的不同需求,把备选项目看作一个组合,综合IT项目的战略对应和财务收益为目标,权衡其成本、收益和风险,构建基于模糊多目标规划的IT投资决策模型,其中模糊数用来刻画不确定的项目信息。通过改变各临界值和求解过程中产生的参数,模型支持各种假设分析。最后用案例说明模型的用法和功能。     

Early Warning Signs of it Project Failure: The Dominant Dozen

The postmortem examination of failed IT projects reveals that long before the failure there were significant symptoms or “early warning signs.” This article describes the top 12 people- related and project-related IT project risks, based on “early warning sign” data collected from a panel of 19 experts and a survey of 55 IT project managers.     

小型水库群安全风险感知及预警平台研究

为更好地感知小型水库群安全风险从而实现有效预警,在分析小型水库群失事实例和特点的基础上, 将小型水库群安全风险分成水文气象和地质、挡泄水结构及设备设施、运行监督管理 3 类风险,给出基于风险的信息感知流程和平台设计要求,建立多源信息获取及定性指标与定量指标相结合的预警指标构建方法,为小型水库安全风险感知及预警平台构建提供参考。     

Valuing information technology infrastructures: a growth options approach

Decisions to invest in information technology (IT) infrastructure are often made based on an assessment of its immediate value to the organization. However, an important source of value comes from the fact that such technologies have the potential to be leveraged in the development of future applications. From a real options perspective, IT infrastructure investments create growth options that can be exercised if and when an organization decides to develop systems to provide new or enhanced IT capabilities. We present an analytical model based on real options that shows the process by which this potential is converted into business value, and discuss middleware as an example technology in this context. We derive managerial implications for the evaluation of IT infrastructure investments, and the main findings are: (1) the flexibility provided by IT infrastructure investment is more valuable when uncertainty is higher; (2) the cost advantage that IT infrastructure investment brings about is amplified by demand volatility for IT-supported products and services; (3) in duopoly competition, the value of IT infrastructure flexibility increases with the level of product or service substitutability; and (4) when demand volatility is high, inter-firm competition has a lower impact on the value of IT infrastructure.     

基于人工神经网络的IT项目风险评价模型

[摘要]：首先本文在构建IT项目风险评价体系的基础上,提出一种基于人工神经网络的多指标综合风险评价模型。其次,利用神经网络的自学习和自适应能力,经过训练的神经网络系统能够将专家评价思想以连接权的方式赋予风险评价模型。最后,通过实际IT项目评价数据的验证,该风险评价模型能够准确地按照专家评价法进行工作。     

Information technology and productivity: Empirical evidence from the Chinese electronics industry

The importance of IT has been increasing in both developing and developed countries over the past three decades. However, almost all findings on IT productivity have been based on data collected in developed countries, while research on productivity in developing countries has been sparse. We studied the effect of IT investment on firm-level productivity in the Chinese electronics industry using a production function model. We found that the direction and size of the impact of IT investment on productivity in China were generally similar to results of studies for the United States and concluded that Chinese firms should invest more in IT. Finally, contrary to popular belief, labor is still an important factor in the production function of the Chinese electronics industry, despite its status as a high-technology industry.