引入奖惩机制的IT外包项目进度风险控制

运用委托代理理论,并针对问题的特点引入奖惩机制,构建了两层的IT外包项目进度风险控制模型。将模拟退火算法与遗传算法混合,设计了模拟退火遗传算法。在仿真实验中分析了奖惩机制对IT外包项目进度风险控制效果的影响。同时,将模拟退火遗传算法的仿真结果分别与模拟退火和遗传算法的仿真结果进行比较,结果表明模拟退火遗传算法在稳定性和收敛性等方面优于其他两种算法。为IT外包环境下的项目进度风险控制决策提供了科学的定量化参考。     

建筑工程项目风险管理的因素及其防范措施

在建筑工程项目中存在诸多的不确定因素,工期是否合理、招标决策是否明智、施工队伍是否专业等一系列因素都影响了建筑工程的最终效果,这些问题都加大了项目的风险的程度。本文主要从业主、施工队伍、承包风险的角度出发,综合分析了影响项目风险的因素,并且针对风险,提出相应的解决措施,希望以此能为相关单位和人员提供一些参考建议,降低建筑工程项目风险。     

It企业信息化建设中的项目管理

主要针对IT企业信息化建设,总结工作中的实践经验和教训,在研究了IT企业信息化项目的特点基础上,从9大项目管理知识领域建立了适用IT企业特点的信息化项目管理架构,并对项目的综合管理加以了重点说明,对项目管理的工具和评价指标作了研究.     

企业技术创新风险因素分析方法的应用

针对目前企业技术创新风险因素分析方法存在的缺陷,在详细分析企业技术创新过程中存在的各种风险因素的基础上,运用层次分析法构建企业技术创新风险评价指标体系,提出企业技术创新风险因素分析灰色综合评价模型.结合实例分析各因素对技术创新的影响程度,为企业技术创新决策和采取风险控制措施提供依据.     

PPP模式下建设项目管理的相关问题分析

现阶段,我国大力发展城市基础设施建设,各地方政府面临财政困难压力,推广运用PPP(政府和社会资本合作)模式,是促进经济转型升级、加快城市基础设施建设的必然要求。进行项目风险分析对PPP项目全过程风险分担是至关重要的,由此一来才能提高政府部门与社会资本方对项目风险因素的认识。本文具体对PPP项目管理中的招投标阶段进行论述,对PPP项目的相关问题展开研究。本文首先介绍PPP项目在项目管理中存在的各种风险因素,然后对PPP项目的招标流程以及存在问题进行详细阐述,最后对PPP项目在项目管理过程中的风险分配提出建设性的优化措施。     

基于PERT的项目工期风险传递机制

项目受本身及环境因素影响而产生工期风险问题,由于对工期风险发生机制缺乏正确的认识,给整个项目的风险管理增加了难度.基于此,从风险相关性的角度研究了基于PERT的项目单时段和全时段工期风险的形成以及传递机制,以期能更加准确地把握项目工期风险发生规律,为项目成功运行提供有效的决策支持.最后举例说明了该方法的具体运用.     

浅谈如何作好电力基建项目招标工作

在实践的基础上,以目前从事的电力基建项目招标工作为依托,对如何作好电力基建项目招标工作进行分析和归纳.进一步探讨招标管理重点由程序管理到技术管理、以及电力基建项目采购管理的发展趋势.     

工程项目招标风险及防范措施

随着社会生产力的提高和科学技术的发展,工程项目的规模和复杂性日益增大,风险所致损失也随之增大,甚至成为项目成败的关键。因此,工程建设是一种高风险的行业。本文对工程项目在招标过程中存在的风险因素进行分析,并提出招标中风险的防范措施。     

IT项目风险分析及管理

目前国内许多IT公司对每个项目的风险分析、管理不够,直到发生了错误才赶紧采取行动,但往往效果不好,极有可能造成项目失败。这些IT项目没有按时完成或无法结项,其中一个原因就在于没有很好的进行风险分析和管理造成的。本文就如何对IT项目进行项目的风险分析、管理进行分析。探讨如何在项目开始之前标识出潜在地风险,评估它们出现的概率及产生的影响,对风险按重要性进行排序,然后由项目组建立一个计划来预防风险、管理风险,保证项目的完成。     

基于FCM-DEMATEL航班风险评估与改进

提出了运用模糊认知图(FCM)和网络层次分析法(ANP)相结合的评估模型,对指标间存在的复杂相互影响关系进行量化测度,构建影响关系矩阵,计算指标收敛权重及指标稳定状态值;进一步运用决策试验与实验室法(DEMATEL)分析获得影响航班风险的主要因素,针对这些关键指标,设计改进情景,计算不同改进方案的效果,为航班运行控制提供有效的决策优化方向,从而实现风险的主动管控;最后通过应用案例验证了方法的可行性。     

大型调水工程索赔管理决策支持系统的研究和实现

针对我国大型调水工程建设施工索赔经验少、索赔专家稀缺的实际情况,将人工智能中的基于事例推理(CBR)技术和基于规则推理(RBR)技术应用于索赔管理,将以往的水利工程索赔事例以一定的结构和方式存储,设计并实现了基于知识的施工索赔决策支持系统,具有较强的实用性。目前研究应用于某大型调水工程施工管理系统。     

Classifying Risks on Information Technology Projects

ABSTRACT

Through an examination of the literature and a review of industrial case studies, a qualitative model is developed of the risks associated with implementing information technology (IT) projects. When this approach was applied to case studies drawn from academia and from companies in the manufacturing and service industries, potential high risk factors were identified and classified. Ongoing research seeks to develop an intelligent risk analyzer that incorporates this qualitative model and industry best practices to give IT project managers significant decision support in the area of risk management by enabling them to match system development strategies with project complexity.     

A performance evaluation of three inference engines as expert systems for failure mode identification in shafts

This paper aims to present performance evaluation of three different inference engines (rule based reasoning, fuzzy based reasoning and Bayesian based reasoning) for failure mode identification in shafts. This research was done with a focus on the validation cases and results after their use in failure cases from several industries where the three systems were tested under the same conditions.Each system was implemented using the same user interface and knowledge base, with different frameworks and techniques as follows: rule based inference reasoning (prolog, C#), Mamdani-fuzzy based reasoning (C, MATLAB®) and Bayesian based reasoning with a variable elimination algorithm (C, MATLAB®).The best performance was obtained using the Bayesian inference engine. The conditional probabilities give flexibility when evidence is not listed, while the fuzzy and classical IF-THEN systems depend on the rules in the inference engine.The process presented in this paper could be used for validation of any expert system or for comparison with other expert systems (inference engines) when the knowledge base is the same.     

基于案例推理的企业项目管理决策支持系统的研究

基于案例推理方法的基本原理,将案例推理方法应用于项目管理辅助决策支持分析,论述了基于案例推理的项目管理决策支持系统中的一些关键步骤,研究了项目管理中项目任务问题案例的知识案例表达、属性权重分析和近邻方法相结合的检索模型,实现了案例检索和匹配,提出了辅助项目任务问题案例辅助决策支持系统的结构,开发了原型系统,并给出应用实例．     

产品总体方案评价与优选的证据推理决策

产品总体方案评价与优选决策是产品设计过程中的重要步骤,它是决定总体设计之后进行详细设计的关键环节。考虑产品总体方案评价与选择决策过程中不确定、不完全主观判断的混合多属性决策问题,提出基于证据推理的决策模型;对决策属性中定量属性的证据处理以及不同定性属性不同辨识框下的情况进行了讨论。最后给出了实例。     

大型旋转机械故障诊断专家系统ETHYLENE的理论研究

本文在模糊产生式规则的基础上引入了加权模糊连接算子的概念,并研究了征兆的类型。在此基础上,为旋转机械模糊诊断知识提出了一个灵活的知识表达方法——广义模糊产生式规则。在征兆类型的基础上引入了征兆认可因子的概念.利用这一概念来描述模糊蕴涵关系的语义,基于征兆认可因子提出了一个模糊推理算法。文中还给出了由基于这一广义模糊产生式规则和模糊推理算法建立的透平压缩机组故障诊断专家系统ETHYLENE得到的两个诊断结果。     

Hybrid expert system for the failure analysis of mechanical elements

An expert system for the failure analysis of metallic mechanical components is described, with emphasis on the structure and the solution strategy followed by the software. The system treats failure in common mechanical elements and is aimed to guide non-experts through the process of basic failure analysis. The system acts as a “virtual colleague”, providing guidance and experience during failure studies. As such, it allows the users to gradually increase their experience while using the software in distinct applications. The system works interactively through a system of structured questions. The answers provided by the user permit the software to direct the analysis toward its solution. Decisions are taken in a hybrid way, through case based reasoning and rule based reasoning, the former using a database of solved cases, the latter mimicking the way experts treat failure analysis. The paper describes the development method, the logic behind the operation of the system and the interaction between case based reasoning and rule based reasoning modules. Its performance in four real-world failure cases is used to demonstrate its feasibility and usefulness.     

Decentralised energy and its performance assessment models

Energy development concerns not only the development of renewable energies but also the shift from centralised to clean, decentralised power generation. The development of decentralised energy (DE) is a core part of the energy and economic strategies being adopted around the world that drives the progress toward a highly sustainable future. This paper reviews the concepts, development status, trends, benefits and challenges of DE systems and analyses the existing models and methods for assessing the performance of these systems. A hierarchical decision model for evaluating the performance of DE systems is also constructed based on the framework of multiple criteria decision analysis, which considers the identification, definition and assessment grade of decision criteria. The evidential reasoning approach is applied to aggregate assessment information in a case study of the implementation of an intelligent decision system. Sensitivity and trade-off analyses are also conducted to show how the proposed model can be used to support decision making in DE systems.     

Uncertain Knowledge Reasoning Based on the Fuzzy Multi Entity Bayesian Networks

With the rapid development of the semantic web and the ever-growing size of uncertain data, representing and reasoning uncertain information has become a great challenge for the semantic web application developers. In this paper, we present a novel reasoning framework based on the representation of fuzzy PR-OWL. Firstly, the paper gives an overview of the previous research work on uncertainty knowledge representation and reasoning, incorporates Ontology into the fuzzy Multi Entity Bayesian Networks theory, and introduces fuzzy PR-OWL, an Ontology language based on OWL2. Fuzzy PR-OWL describes fuzzy semantics and uncertain relations and gives grammatical definition and semantic interpretation. Secondly, the paper explains the integration of the Fuzzy Probability theory and the Belief Propagation algorithm. The influencing factors of fuzzy rules are added to the belief that is propagated between the nodes to create a reasoning framework based on fuzzy PR-OWL. After that, the reasoning process, including the SSFBN structure algorithm, data fuzzification, reasoning of fuzzy rules, and fuzzy belief propagation, is scheduled. Finally, compared with the classical algorithm from the aspect of accuracy and time complexity, our uncertain data representation and reasoning method has higher accuracy without significantly increasing time complexity, which proves the feasibility and validity of our solution to represent and reason uncertain information.     

使用表达式分析的通用故障诊断系统设计与实现

基于知识的故障诊断专家系统在应用时面临知识获取、知识表达和知识与诊断推理有机融合等几方面的困难。本文论述了一种使用表达式解析的故障诊断方法,并将其用于某型雷达系统的故障诊断保障系统中。该方法将知识表示为逻辑表达式,推理机使用表达式解析的方法推理知识。使用该方法,知识的获取和更新更加方便,并且推理机和表达式相互独立,具有相当的通用性。