Assessment of the different sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium)

Although rainfall input uncertainties are widely identified as being a key factor in hydrological models, the rainfall uncertainty is typically not included in the parameter identification and model output uncertainty analysis of complex distributed models such as SWAT and in maritime climate zones. This paper presents a methodology to assess the uncertainty of semi-distributed hydrological models by including, in addition to a list of model parameters, additional unknown factors in the calibration algorithm to account for the rainfall uncertainty (using multiplication factors for each separately identified rainfall event) and for the heteroscedastic nature of the errors of the stream flow. We used the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm (DREAM_(zs)) to infer the parameter posterior distributions and the output uncertainties of a SWAT model of the River Senne (Belgium). Explicitly considering heteroscedasticity and rainfall uncertainty leads to more realistic parameter values, better representation of water balance components and prediction uncertainty intervals.     

四川盆地高石梯-磨溪地区下二叠统气源示踪

以天然气、烃源岩及储层沥青的地球化学特征为主要依据,通过天然气-天然气、储层沥青-烃源岩、天然气-烃源岩3个方面对比,深入探讨四川盆地高石梯-磨溪地区下二叠统天然气来源。研究表明,四川盆地高石梯-磨溪地区下二叠统天然气主要来源于筇竹寺组泥岩。其5项证据分别为:下二叠统天然气乙烷碳同位素小于-30.5‰,甲、乙烷碳同位素倒转是由高演化程度烃源岩所致;多数下二叠统天然气与龙王庙组天然气特征最为相似;GS18,NC1井下二叠统天然气特征与寒武系相似,说明上下层气源一致;高石梯-磨溪地区下二叠统储层沥青地球化学特征与筇竹寺组泥岩最为相似;筇竹寺组泥岩主要为下二叠统供气,这一认识符合干酪根油气生成理论和同位素分馏规律。     

凉水河污染对土壤和地下水的影响

在凉水河下游取河床底泥及河床下部土样,分析其NH3-N、磷和有机物的变化,发现底泥对NH3-N和磷的去除发挥了很大作用,分别是下部土壤吸附量的10倍和1倍多;土中5种氯代烃均有检出,是河水长期渗漏积累的结果。凉水河流域内的野外试验结果表明,凉水河对地下水存在污染,污染组分主要是CODCr,NH3-N也有一定污染,其他无机污染组分如NO3-N,Cr6+,TP和Pb2+对地下水的影响较小,氯代烃对地下水也有一定影响。据推测,凉水河污染对地下水的影响范围大概在河两侧80 m范围内。     

Expanding the analytical potential of channel locational probability maps using cellular statistics

The planimetric shifts in channel location of large alluvial rivers are a critical component in the creation of diverse structures and functions in riverine habitats. Engineered management schemes must also compensate for this type of channel change to protect resources and maintain navigation channels. The stability of the Lower Mississippi River channel was assessed through an analysis of historical records of channel position produced and archived by the United States Army Corps of Engineers. Channel location was recorded for the years 1765, 1820, 1881, 1915, 1930, 1937, 1960 and 1970. Channel stability was measured by two introduced metrics on a cell‐by‐cell basis: (1) the standard deviation of Euclidean distance to a channel cell for the entire period of record, and (2) the rate of Euclidean distance change between years in the period of record. At a coarse spatial scale, channel instability increased in the downstream direction. The variability of channel stability also increased in the downstream direction. Analysis of this variability identified alternating areas of high and low stability occurring with greater frequency as distance downstream increased. These findings are validated by past studies of channel stability along the Lower Mississippi River. As a result, the proposed metrics provide a consistent, quantitative, efficient and cost‐effective means of identifying areas of channel instability at several spatial scales. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

珠江三角洲网河近20年河床演变特征分析

总结了20世纪80年代前珠江三角洲网河河床演变特征,并采用80年代和90年代末的河道地形图,通过对比珠江三角洲各主要河道的深泓线、平均河底高程以及河道容积、河床断面宽深比的变化,分析珠江三角洲80年代后的河床演变特征。对比分析结果表明珠江三角洲在不同时期呈现出不同的河床演变规律——20世纪80年代前以淤积为主,80年代至90年代末转变为以冲刷为主。     

带参数的一阶脉冲微分方程边值问题

利用上下解和单调迭代法。讨论了带参数的一阶脉冲微分方程。获得了单边Lipschitz条件下这类方程边值问题的解的存在性。     

利用黄河泥沙加固下游大堤

黄河是一条举世闻名的多泥沙河流，善淤、善决、善徒给沿河人民带来对过深重灾难，防洪问题一直是国家的心腹之患。泥沙问题是黄河防洪问题的症结所在。在总结固大堤经验的基础，进行挖河疏浚，淤筑“相对地下河”，已作为黄河治理的一项重大决策付诸实施。     

Dissolved organic carbon dynamics in the upper rhone: The influence of side-arms?

Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics were investigated over a two year period in the Upper Rhǒne River to examine the role of side-arms in providing DOC to the main channel in relation to discharge fluctuations, especially floods. Concentrations of DOC are shown to remain low in space and in time (average 1.5 mg ^?1) and to be more related to global hydrological events (precipitation) than to any local flushing for backwaters during floods. The results do not support the general assumption that side-arms are the providers of DOC to the main channel.     

停棒子系统与控制棒组操作范围监测试验

本文叙述了反应堆保护系统停棒与汽轮机降功率子系统的系统功能、保护参数和秦山核电站控制棒组插入监测器的设计与参数选择,确定了控制棒提升上极限值和在不同工况下棒插入低位、低-低位整定值,并在热态零功率条件下加以验证。试验证明参数选择是合理的,为功率运行阶段提供了数据。     

生物包粒的分类与命名——兼论徐州大北望中下寒武统生物包粒特征

对于碳酸盐岩中由生物及生物化学作用形成的具有同心或放射结构的异化颗粒(生物包粒),已为人们所熟悉,但目前还没有统一的分类与命名。本文在研究徐州大北望中下寒武统生物包粒特征的基础上,结合已有研究成果,对由生物及生物化学作用形成的具有同心或放射状内部结构的碳酸盐颗粒,按其粒度和形成颗粒的生物类型不同进行分类命名,提出分类命名的原则。